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Who wins Best Picture?

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    GMonty777
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    #216990

    Before deciding consider the following information:

     -The PGA winner has matched the Best Picture winner 19/26 times or 73% of the time. That favors The Big Short.
    – The DGA winner has matched the Best Picture winner 53/67 times or 79%. This favors The Revenant.
    – Ever since 1936, when they nominated at least five nominees, only Hamlet, Sound Of Music, Driving Miss Daisy, Titanic, and Argo won Best Picture without a Best Director and Best Screenplay nomination. This favors Room, Spotlight, and The Big Short.
    – If we include film editing, then you can add Birdman, Ordinary People, Annie Hall, Godfather Part 2, A Man of all Seasons, Marty, Tom Jones, and The Life of Emile Zola. That excludes Room from the stat above.
    – The last time a film won Best Picture without a SAG Best Ensemble nod was Braveheart. This favors Spotlight and The Big Short.
    – Last time without an ACE nod was 1989’s Driving Miss Daisy.
    – The Greatest Show on Earth was the last time a film won Best Picture with only 2 Oscars, and was in 1952.

    Whose your pick?

    I am leaning toward The Revenant.

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    Moviebuff22
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    #216992

    Revenant

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    Tonbone
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    #216993

    I am picking The Revenant because I know it’s bad that it didn’t win PGA but DGA gave the award to Alejandro two years in a row that show they really really like him. After seeing the movie and reading about the behind the scenes of the movie I realize just the making of the film was as brutal as the performances themselves. For that reason alone I think people will have an urge to award it. Because you can tell how difficult an experience it was for the director the filmmakers and the actors especially Dicaprio who did the bear scene and ate a bison liver. That right there shows why it represents the best of a movie it has the whole package. It is emotional it is brutal emotionally and emotionally violent but most of all it is a story about love of family.

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    Asgaroth
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    #216994

    Are we picking best picture or most-difficult-picture-to-get-made?

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    Asgaroth
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    #216995

    It’s also funny how people are dismissing Spotlight and Big Short chances for BP because they’re not going to win anything else beyond the screenplay and since 52 there hasn’t been a movie that wins BP with less than 3, and at the same time, are predicting a movie that hasn’t a screenplay nomination (both at Oscars and WGA, where it was elegible), when in about the same amount of time only 2 movies won without it (and both, boxoffice phenomenons -which The Revenant is not-, which can explain part of that anomaly), to win the main award. 

    Besides, Golden Globes and BAFTA aren’t telling. Only last year they didn’t agree with Oscars. DGA failed to predict BP just 2 years ago. And PGA hasn’t missed once since the preferential ballot was installed, and I would say this is the biggest obstacle Revenant will have to face. If it’s so popular, then why didn’t it win PGA, the only precursor using preferential ballot system and hence the only one where we can see signs of consensus? 

    I’m predicting The Revenant too, but I have no confidence about it at all. I’m just predicting based on its momentum. This is still a three-horse race. All of them have problems, and any of them winning is going to be stat-breaker, but I think we just can’t predict The Revenant for BP comfortably when it even has more problems to face than the small social-important movies it has as main competition.

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    #216996
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    Moviebuff22
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    #216997

    Are we picking best picture or most-difficult-picture-to-get-made?

    In this case the movie is both so yes

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    Rooney Moore
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    #216998

    Are we picking best picture or most-difficult-picture-to-get-made?

    Yeah. This. It’s so weird that how it is being hyped and how people are buying it. This can’t be the first time Holywood have encountered an action movie that has been shot in the real world under bad conditions. But of course it is the only one with Leo in it, so it gets a free pass.

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    #216999
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    Mad Max Guitarist
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    #217000

    Are we picking best picture or most-difficult-picture-to-get-made?

    I read an article in LA Times about The Revenant’s high probability to snag BP. One line that tickle me so much is “imagine if Apocalypse Now being released today”. How much hype surrounding this picture is gonna be? Surely more troubled than freezing temperature in Argentina

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    Mad Max Guitarist
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    #217001

    My point is Linklater didn’t win a single Oscar for his 12 years project, so since when does filming in a hard condition become such an excuse to win the award?

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    Rooney Moore
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    #217002

    I don’t have a problem with voters taking hard conditions into consideration when they’re casting their ballots, I do have a problem with them taking only “that” to consideration when they’re voting for this blank movie. I mean, just last year, people were calling Boyhood an aimless movie without any substance or script but now this?

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    Pollo crudo
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    #217003

    I think the real though questions right now are: What sound will Revenant take? The one that wins sound in BAFTA always takes at least one at the Oscars (at least in the last 8 years), and are we sure about the three shorts? Those are key, as almost nobody watched them.

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    Tonbone
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    #217004

    My point is Linklater didn’t win a single Oscar for his 12 years project, so since when does filming in a hard condition become such an excuse to win the award?

    Wow great false equivalence there. Boyhood wasn’t difficult to make it just took a long time to make. Filming a portion of your movie for a month each year for twelve years is very different than filming a brutal movie in freezing weather and giving an emotionally draining performance.

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    nkb325
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    #217006

    Room will win Best Picture. 

    Don’t toy with me like that, my heart can’t take it.

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