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Spotlight is a film that most are abandoning as their predictor for Best Picture, but quite a few people consider it to be a lock for screenplay. My obvious question is of course why? The race controversy at the Oscars has really caused a stink and the SAG win for Elba tells us that the industry wants to make up for it. I’m personally betting on A Straight Outta Compton upset, even if the writers are all white. Spotlight can still win, but I personally feel it’ll be shut out at the Oscars in two weeks.
ReplyThe 6 nominations of Spotlight shows strength. Apart from the Revenant, it is the most overperforming film in the nomination morning. The actors branch embraced it by giving it SAG ensemble win and Ruffalo and McAdams semi-surprising nominations. It has Editing nomination without having ACE Eddie nomination. It is the only film among the original screenplay nominees to get directing or editing nod. It should be the frontrunner now unless WGA or BAFTA tell us otherwise.
ReplyCopy URLHow was Idris Elba’s SAG win completely based on the controversy? No one can’t deny the fact that it helped, but he was always in the conversation for that role and was considered one of the 3 frontrunners.
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Now, had SOC also won for its ensemble at SAG you would think that the industry’s response to the controversy was so HIGH that it wouldn’t even matter if the thing in contention was worthy or well-known or not, they were just trying to fix the mistake they’ve made.
Considering no one on earth ever thought about SOC would win for its screenplay I find it hard to believe it could beat Spotlight, though you never know.Anonymous
How was Idris Elba’s SAG win completely based on the controversy? No one can’t deny the fact that it helped, but he was always in the conversation for that role and was considered one of the 3 frontrunners.
Now, had SOC also won for its ensemble at SAG you would think that the industry’s response to the controversy was so HIGH that it wouldn’t even matter if the thing in contention was worthy or well-known or not, they were just trying to fix the mistake they’ve made.
Considering no one on earth ever thought about SOC would win for its screenplay I find it hard to believe it could beat Spotlight, though you never know.I think Elba would have finished 4th without the controversy.
ReplyCopy URLI think that it’s the a very conventional screenplay, especially compared to Ex Machina or Inside Out. It lines up closely with the academy’s usual tastes and it’s a way of rewarding McCarthy without having him as the best director winner (which is definitely not happening). All in all, I think that the only way it loses is if the more traditional voters got scared by the backlash and throw some support to Compton or they somehow preferred Bridge of Spies. I don’t see either happening though.
ReplyCopy URLIs it a lock though? Inside Out could take that one easily.
Except no Pixar film ever has–not even ones nominated for Best Picture (which INSIDE isn’t) or ones that had a lot more nominations (INSIDE’s two is paltry compared to most Pixar films).
It is very rare for a film not nominated for Picture to beat a Picture nominee in Screenplay. Plain and simple. Has it happened a few times? Sure. But most of those instances were when the Picture nominee was a big epic that got lots of tech/craft nominations and could be seen as relying more heavily on visual sweep than dialogue-based storytelling (BRAVEHEART, ENGLISH PATIENT, GLADIATOR, AVIATOR, GANGS OF NEW YORK, etc.)
SPOTLIGHT is all talk, all the time. And unlike ETERNAL SUNSHINE, TALK TO HER, or USUAL SUSPECTS, COMPTON is not an original idea brought to the screen. It, like the McCarthy, is based on real life incidents, so it doesn’t even have the edge on being more “original”.
Any film will be a long shot against SPOTLIGHT, given all the variables involved.
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