Why is the Oscars so much more predictable than the Grammy

[Nameizmann Joined: Jan 16th, 2020 Topics: 33 Posts: 676 View Predictions]

#1205293863

Is it the precursors? Because the oscars are more established? Are people’s opinion on the quality of a film or a craft more aligned than music? Is film criticism more objective than music criticism?

X

Reply

[madsxbb Joined: Nov 9th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 127 View Predictions]

#1205293933

having so many precursors help to create a consensus, the grammys dont have such a thing

are the oscars more established? yes but that is not the reason for more predictable winners

is film criticism more objective than music criticism? no, if anything individual opinions weight even more in movie critic because there are so many variables to movies and everyone have their own opinion on whats a good story, whats good acting, whats beautiful cinematography etc

are people’s opinion on the quality of a film or a craft more aligned than music? i dont know, metacritic is very popular for music too and that has a normal variation of opinions

i would say it is because the oscar value tradition, they keep looking back at their glory past, they are scared of change and want to keep things under control. the grammys embrace new things, have more personality and they are more confident because music is as popular now as it was 100 years ago and as it will be in 100 years from now

X

ReplyCopy URL

[babypook Joined: Nov 4th, 2010 Topics: 22 Posts: 3624 View Predictions]

#1205293962

Interesting question. I didn’t realize there was that perception.

Sales seem like celebrated milestones with music whereas box office can sometimes be a detriment in film.

If this is true that Oscar is easier to predict I’m curious as to why as well.

The Sunne in Splendour.
I prefer my roses white

X

ReplyCopy URL

[Nameizmann Joined: Jan 16th, 2020 Topics: 33 Posts: 676 View Predictions]

#1205294055

madsxbb wrote:

having so many precursors help to create a consensus, the grammys dont have such a thing are the oscars more established? yes but that is not the reason for more predictable winners is film criticism more objective than music criticism? no, if anything individual opinions weight even more in movie critic because there are so many variables to movies and everyone have their own opinion on whats a good story, whats good acting, whats beautiful cinematography etc are people’s opinion on the quality of a film or a craft more aligned than music? i dont know, metacritic is very popular for music too and that has a normal variation of opinions i would say it is because the oscar value tradition, they keep looking back at their glory past, they are scared of change and want to keep things under control. the grammys embrace new things, have more personality and they are more confident because music is as popular now as it was 100 years ago and as it will be in 100 years from now

Agreed on all except that the Grammys get flack for conservative taste as much as the Oscars

Also I’d say even if the Oscars had no precursors, it would be more predictable than the Grammys, i.e. we won’t have a winner that less than 1/100 of the people predict to win.

X

ReplyCopy URL

[JV Joined: Dec 31st, 2019 Topics: 9 Posts: 5264 View Predictions]

#1205294103

I think Music is something way harder to find a consensus than Film

X

ReplyCopy URL

[madsxbb Joined: Nov 9th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 127 View Predictions]

#1205294122

Nameizmann wrote:

Agreed on all except that the Grammys get flack for conservative taste as much as the Oscars Also I’d say even if the Oscars had no precursors, it would be more predictable than the Grammys, i.e. we won’t have a winner that less than 1/100 of the people predict to win.

i wasnot talking about conservative but traditional. even if the grammys are conservative they move with whats popular at the time, the oscar does not. one of many examples would be the complete shut out of horror, the most talked about movie genre for young people right now because they are not traditionally oscar movies

angela bassett was very low in the odds before she won golden globe and now she is 100% winning the oscar, if not for the precursors giving her the narrative, good chance she would have been snubbed for the nomination because she is in a superhero movie. do you think people would have voted for nothing performances like laura dern if the precursors had not told them to?

the precursors serve as big expensive marketing tools to tell oscar voters on what they should vote for and that is why they are not more unpredictable like the grammy

X

ReplyCopy URL

[YeohBestActress Joined: Sep 16th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 2650 View Predictions]

#1205294132

Oscars season is a thing. It’s a 4/5 month-long season with 1000+ critics groups, guild awards, heavy campaigning by your favourite actors at tons of screenings and events. We have enough time and resources to figure out what is leading and who can potentially win. That isn’t the case with Grammys at all. The only thing we have as precursors there are sales/Billboard charts and what’s trending on Tik Tok. It contributes to unpredictability.

X

ReplyCopy URL

[Nameizmann Joined: Jan 16th, 2020 Topics: 33 Posts: 676 View Predictions]

#1205294168

madsxbb wrote:

i wasnot talking about conservative but traditional. even if the grammys are conservative they move with whats popular at the time, the oscar does not. one of many examples would be the complete shut out of horror, the most talked about movie genre for young people right now because they are not traditionally oscar movies angela bassett was very low in the odds before she won golden globe and now she is 100% winning the oscar, if not for the precursors giving her the narrative, good chance she would have been snubbed for the nomination because she is in a superhero movie. do you think people would have voted for nothing performances like laura dern if the precursors had not told them to? the precursors serve as big expensive marketing tools to tell oscar voters on what they should vote for and that is why they are not more unpredictable like the grammy

Fair.

X

ReplyCopy URL

[RIDLEY SCOTT Joined: Dec 12th, 2020 Topics: 104 Posts: 2957 View Predictions]

#1205294329

JV wrote:

I think Music is something way harder to find a consensus than Film

? I totally disagree. I never find consensus in movies. I find consensus all the time in music. For example: Titanic, Avatar 1 and 2 is The Biggest Box Office Success Of All Time. Cameron is The Box Office King. Cameron is Hugely Hated in Cinephile Circles. That never happens in music. The Biggest Pop Stars Of All Time(Michael Jackson, Taylor Swift) are adored. Cinephiles Circles hate 99% of everything and everyone

X

ReplyCopy URL