February 5, 2017 at 1:23 am #1202003398
In SAGs 22 history (not counting 2016), the SAG Best Actor winner has gone on to win the Best Actor Oscar 18/22 times. In 1 of those 4 incidents, the SAG Best Actor winner went on to win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor. We’re talking of course about Del Toro for Traffic. In the other 3 incidents, the Best Actor winner failed to win both the SAG and the BAFTA. So if Gosling, Affleck, Garfield, or Mortensen win on the 12th, it might actually be a BAD THING.
With that said, you could argue it’s an exception year for Best Actor anyway. Washington is the first SAG Best Actor winner to miss out on a BAFTA nomination, when the film was up for other awards. It happened in 1997, but none of the other Oscar nominees were up for BAFTAs.February 5, 2017 at 8:05 am #1202003492
Something else to note is that the 4 years that SAG didn’t predict Best Actor were all in a row (2000-2003).February 5, 2017 at 9:42 am #1202003564
Andrew Garfield is winning. People won’t Foye for Casey. And Denzel ain’t nominated. This is Garfields by a mile.February 5, 2017 at 10:05 am #1202003585
Casey is winning both the BAFTA and Oscar.February 5, 2017 at 10:25 am #1202003597
I should be the only one who thinks Mortensen could win, if it’s not Affleck.February 5, 2017 at 10:52 am #1202003609
Gyllenhaal and Garfield are not winning.February 5, 2017 at 11:18 am #1202003630
Casey is locked for BAFTA, his only competition isn’t even nominated.February 5, 2017 at 11:20 am #1202003631
I’m actually going to predict Ryan Gosling for Best Actor at the BAFTA. I have a feeling that they have unusual support for him on this one.February 5, 2017 at 12:25 pm #1202003658
Winning a BAFTA or any award is NEVER a bad thing when it comes to Oscar. Some years they line up, some years they don’t. Stupid title.February 5, 2017 at 12:41 pm #1202003666
Why garfield will win the bafta
1) he is British
2) It’s a WWII movie, and old people get hard ons for those
3) he has an accent so they will be like “oooh I forgot he’s British”February 5, 2017 at 1:02 pm #1202003672
There is nothing significant about Oscar having never agreed with BAFTA for Best Actor when it differed with SAG, except for the fact that SAG is generally a more accurate precursor. Oscar has, on occasion, agreed with BAFTA over SAG in other acting categories and it can happen in Best Actor, whether or not it happens this year.
As for Andrew Garfield – I’m not convinced he’s a BAFTA winner for Hacksaw Ridge. Yes he’s British and he’s had Supporting Actor and Rising Star nominations there before, but Hacksaw is a very American film with American sensibilities, if that makes sense. Chiwetel Ejiofor could win for an American film, but 12 Years a Slave had far more appeal to an middle-aged and older British demographic than Hacksaw, evidenced by its hefty nomination count and win for Best Film. (Being directed by a Brit didn’t hurt.) Another problem for Garfield is that when there’s enough consensus around one contender, BAFTA will often rally behind them even at the expense of one of their own. (Exceptions occur when a British actor is especially beloved and the US consensus pick lacks Brit appeal.) Up until SAG, Casey Affleck was that consensus pick, and Manchester by the Sea has plenty of BAFTA noms including Best Editing, which is particularly noteworthy as they don’t usually nominate unshowy contemporary dramas in this category as often as the Oscars do.
One thing that could tenuously be seen as a plus for Garfield is the random adapted screenplay nomination for Hacksaw Ridge, considering it scored nowhere else in that category in any of the major awards. But that could have a lot to do with Moonlight and Loving being considered original here, and Fences hadn’t made much of a mark, so Hacksaw essentially got in by default.February 7, 2017 at 11:00 am #1202004889
Eh, I’m not so sold on the “he/she will win because he/she is British” argument at BAFTA. Sure, the likes of Colin Firth (A Single Man) and Jamie Bell (Billy Elliot) have prevailed at BAFTA but Britishness didn’t catapult Peter O’Toole (Venus), Michael Caine (The Quiet American) or Ralph Fiennes (The English Patient), among others, to victory. I just don’t sense Garfield having a mere hint of momentum right now.
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