January 17, 2016 at 12:54 am #210678
Just like last year, do you guys and gals think that all eight Best Picture nominees will win an Oscar this year? Here’s a potential scenario that I could very well see happen:
“The Revenant” – Wins Best Actor
“Brooklyn” – Wins Best Actress
“Bridge of Spies” – Wins Best Supporting Actor
“Spotlight” – Wins Best Original Screenplay
“Room” – Wins Best Adapted Screenplay
“The Big Short” – Wins Best Film Editing
“Mad Max: Fury Road” – Wins Best Production Design
“The Martian” – Wins Best Visual Effects
And that’s not even counting Best Picture and Best Director.January 17, 2016 at 1:00 am #210680
I don’t think ‘Brooklyn’, ‘Martian’ or ‘Bridge of Spies’ are going to win anything.
Best shot of the three is Mark Rylance for ‘Bridge’, but unless he wins SAG or BAFTA, I think Stallone train is taking off. ‘The Martian’ will most likely lose their tech nods to the power combo of ‘Mad Max’ and ‘Star Wars’ and ‘Brooklyn’, my favorite film of the year, has no real chance anywhere now that Brie Larson is almost as solid as a win as Leo.January 17, 2016 at 1:02 am #210681
I can’t see how Saoirse Ronan wins over Brie Larson. The only award Ronan has a shot at from now on is the BAFTA. Larson will take both the Critics’ Choice and the SAG and she already won the Golden Globe. Even BAFTA is no sure thing.
I can’t see how The Martian wins Best Vsual Effects.
Adapted Screenplay is pretty competitive and The Big Short could be 0/5 as well.
Bridge of Spies could (and hopelly will) win Best Supporting Actor but the mass hysteria surrounding Stallone is a bit of an indiator things could go wrong.
In the end, I just can’t see how all best picture nominees take Oscars this year.January 17, 2016 at 1:52 am #210682
I would not count out Ronan quite yet. It is not like Room got an ensemble nomination or Joan Allen in anywhere. Despite a tremendous performance, Tremblay also did not carry through to the Oscars or BAFTA, the latter where Julie Walters got a nomination for doing nothing. Larson won the Globe and will win the Critics, but those awards are not actually decided by the industry. On the other hand, Ronan is probably winning the BAFTA. Ronan also has the advantage of being the indisputable lead in her movie in every scene, plus Brooklyn has performed better at the box office and on critics’ top ten lists. Only one nomination separates these two films at the Oscars, even if it is a big one.
It would be cool for all of the Best Picture nominees to win, but too many stars would have to align.
"I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."January 17, 2016 at 1:55 am #210683
for me “Brooklyn” and “The Big Short” are not winning anything !…January 17, 2016 at 1:58 am #210684
Brooklyn has the toughest ask with this. Then Bridge of Spies. Brooklyn has to win Actress for it to happen pretty much, which Larson is in pole for. Ronan could sneak it, but then you’re relying on Room getting Adapted Screenplay, which The Big Short might get as a compensation for Spotlight winning Picture.January 17, 2016 at 3:34 am #210685
The support for Room is so great that even Lenny Abrahamson gets in BD. If academy wants to award Room somewhere, it is Larson (I think it is the strongest competitor for The Big Short in Adapted Screenplay). I can’t see Larson losing
Stallone. He is as big of a lock as Dicaprio.
Martian will lose all technical awards to MM:FR and SW:TFA
With that being said, I think Brooklyn, Bridge of Spies, The Martian can’t win any awardJanuary 17, 2016 at 4:31 am #210686
Bridge Of Spies and Brooklyn imo won’t win any; I think The Martian will win two. The Big Short is either going to win 2-3 or none at all – depends on if they go cuckoo and give Inarritu two in a row for BP and Director. MM:FR will win 3-4, The Revenant 2-3, Room 1 or 2, Spotlight will win 1-3. it’s all still in flux for meJanuary 17, 2016 at 5:47 am #210687
Martian can still win Production Design but it’s tricky. I think that’s all it can get. Brooklyn can get Screenplay but I doubt it at this point. Bridge of Spies I think is out of every race with Rylance pretty much losing to Stallone at this point. Those three films will have a hard time winning.
People are placing too much hope/confidence on the precursors and suddenly act like they don’t know what they’re talking about or how predictable things can get after the nominations. As usual it seems as if all people want to do is extend the conversation and threads to an unnecessary point.
Larson is winning. With that director nomination even with Tremblay missing, she’s winning. Ronan can win BAFTA because of her nationality nothing else, which is something that would’ve gotten Rampling predicted over there if she were nominated. So a possible Ronan win at BAFTA doesn’t mean much, Larson is still leading this race. And of course there are those that will place too much confidence on Rylance because Stallone isn’t nominated at SAG or BAFTA so they won’t see him that much during the race until Oscar night, so it’ll be a long month of dismissing his chances because a long time ago one key precursor decided to snub him and another one doesn’t care about this “legend”. However wait until Stallone is invited to both SAG and BAFTA, he attends and people go crazier than with Rylance’s expected win. And don’t think that Idris Elba doesn’t have a chance at BAFTA.January 17, 2016 at 6:36 am #210688
“The Revenant” – Wins Best Actor Well I suppose he’s winning in his forties, and for acting, not directing!
“Brooklyn” – I preferred Ronan to almost all others, but no. Larson wins.
“Bridge of Spies” – Wins Best Supporting Actor…this is still possible, but we’ll see. Stallone likely wins.
“Spotlight” – Wins Best Original Screenplay. Yup.
“Room” – Dont think so. TBS
“The Big Short” – These dont match up quite as often, but TBS wont win BP and Editing goes to another film…..funny how if a film ‘misses’ an Editing nod, it’s ‘finished’, and when it does get one, it doesnt “mean” much….
“Mad Max: Fury Road” – Wins Best Production Design. Who knows? Maybe
“The Martian” – Wins Best Visual Effects. The Martian loses to MM or SWTFA.
The circuit has been ‘crazier’ than usual. It’s either going to continue this way, or it goes by ‘line’. I think I’ve held my breathe for decades.January 17, 2016 at 7:27 am #210689
The Revenant – Yes, lock for Best Actor and has a strong chance of taking Cinematography and potentially some other tech awards. Strong chance of being the film with the most wins. Possible Picture/Director winner.
Brooklyn – I can’t see it. Larson is way out in front for Actress, and The Big Short/Room are way out in front for Adapted.
Bridge of Spies – No. Possible Supporting Actor winner, but Stallone seems more likely at this point
Spotlight – Yes, lock for Original Screenplay, probable Picture/Director winner.
Room – Yes, lock for Actress, outside chance of Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short – Yes, likely Adapted Screenplay winner, outside chance of winning in Editing. Possible Picture/Director winner.
Mad Max: Fury Road – Yes, should take home several techs. Could end up being the film with the most wins depending on just how many of those techs it takes. Outside chance of Director win.
The Martian – No, Star Wars, The Revenant and Mad Max are dominating the techs this year, and the Director miss shows it doesn’t have the support to take anything major.
So 5/8 are likely to win at least one. All of them winning one is theoretically possible, but I highly doubt it.January 17, 2016 at 8:48 am #210690
No, I don’t think so. So far I have:
Spotlight: BP and BOS (might give them a Supporting Actress win as well)
Mad Max: Fury Road: BD, Editing, Make up, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects
The Revenant: Lead Actor, Cinematography
Room: Lead Actress
The Big Short: Adapted Screenplay
After all the precursors are announced I will change these but for now I don’t think it is possible.January 17, 2016 at 2:22 pm #210691
The Martian and Brooklyn aren’t winning anything. Brooklyn could have maybe won for Costume Design, but since it got snubbed there, I think its shut out is inevitable.
For your Goldderby Film Awards consideration: Isle of Dogs for every category, especially Music Score for Alexandre Desplat!January 19, 2016 at 6:31 am #210692
The Big Short – Yes
Almost definitely winning Adapted Screenplay, with Editing as a high possibility too. Currently predicting it for Best Picture, but that could change depending on the PGA winner.
Bridge of Spies – No
Mark Rylance is its strongest chance, but with loud and/or emotional performances from Stallone, Bale and Ruffalo and even Hardy, I just don’t think he can win. A slight chance at Production Design too, but probably not.
Brooklyn – No
Queen Sirsh is its best chance, but Brie Larson will probably sweep the precursors and pick up the Oscar. Adapted Screenplay and Best Picture aren’t happening. So no.
Carol – oh wait…
Mad Max: Fury Road – Yes
I envision Mad Max as the Life of Pi/Gravity/Grand Budapest Hotel, picking up multiple (if not all) of the technical trophies. I think George Miller could definitely win after all the steak eater support too. Will probably have the most wins by the end of the night.
The Martian – No
Feels weird to say no with 7 nominations, but Mad Max and The Revenant have rendered The Martian third at best in most of its categories. No Ridley Scott was the final nail in the coffin of The Martian having technical support. And obviously Best Picture and Actor aren’t happening.
The Revenant – Yes
Obviously Leo will pick up his overdue trophy, and I’m thinking Chivo will get his third consecutive Oscar in Cinematography. But much like Lincoln, I’m only predicting it to get those two, and that will be “surprising.”
Room – Yes
Brie Larson will win (unless something happens at SAG). If something goes awry with The Big Short in Adapted Screenplay I could see Emma Donaghue winning. Otherwise, Picture and Director are a no-go.
Spotlight – Yes
Currently only predicting it for Original Screenplay, but it’s definitely in the hunt for Picture. Editing is possible. Ruffalo is possible. McAdams… lol. I suppose Director could happen if there’s no split.
So right now it’s 5/8, as others have said.
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