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Will THE IRISHMAN go home empty-handed?

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    Filmatelist
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    #1203284371

    After all, GANGS OF NEW YORK went 0/10 despite having Pic, Director, Acting, Writing and Editing nods.

    Right now, it’s hard for me to imagine THE IRISHMAN being a front-runner anywhere.

    In order of categories it’s likely to win:

    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY seemed like a solid front-runner but Gerwig’s snub at Director and the strong showing of LITTLE WOMEN in 6 categories means that rewarding a female director will be a top priority for many—especially since her adaptation is a remarkable approach to the very linear novel. Plus 4 out of the last 8 winners have gone to the films’ directors so this is a common way to spread the wealth among directors with no hope elsewhere.

    DIRECTOR seems unlikely because Scorsese has one but QT doesn’t, and 1917 is bravura enough in execution that many will want to reward Mendes for the logistics of that shoot. Marty is a fixture on the cinematic landscape but there doesn’t seem to be any real urgency to give him a second win. And that’s without factoring in the unpredictable presence of Bong Joon-Ho. And while THE IRISHMAN is in some ways the most similar to the “classic” era that many of the older members will align with, the running time will try others’ patience.

    PICTURE Similarly, while there is an obviously passionate fan base for the film among the members, it will need a lot of #2 & 3 votes on the preferential ballot to accrue enough to put it over the top. I honestly don’t see that happening.

    EDITING Thelma is a legend and if she wins, it’ll be the most Editing Oscars ever won by anybody. But the running joke about the film’s runtime will be a constant reminder that for many, surely there was *something * she could have cut. And while her pacing is methodical and perfectly-suited for the film, it’s still not the rhythm that the members like to vote for and I can see a FORD V FERRARI easily taking this because for many, Best Editing is Most Editing (and there are very very few “action” setpieces in IRISHMAN and even those only last a minute or two.

    SUPPORTING ACTOR If the prospect of a Pesci/Pacino vote split wasn’t difficult enough, Brad Pitt, in addition to raking in the precursors, is the only nominee in this category who has never won an acting Oscar. Also, he’s the best thing in the Tarantino, which also has 10 nods. Plus, he’s just incredibly likeable without ever acting like he’s trying hard to be liked.

    PRODUCTION DESIGN The only time Scorsese films won this was when their design had an epic historical sweep: recreating Golden Age Hollywood; a vast Parisian train station and the magic of the Méliès studio. Much has been talked about the myriad sets in IRISHMAN but they’re mostly living rooms and diners and union halls and the occasional banquet setting. There’s no single unifying location or a set that has some memorable design element. It’s all impeccably recreated but there’s no central image to associate the film with.

    COSTUME DESIGN Best rule of thumb with this category: Do you remember what the women were wearing? This is usually the edge the eventual winners have—gowns and color and fancy dress situations. None of that applies here. It’s certainly a lot of costumes, but without a single iconic outfit or fashion moment.

    CINEMATOGRPHY 1917. Enough said.

    VISUAL EFFECTS: Beyond the film’s length, probably the single biggest complaint from critics of the film. Not a chance.

    It’s a film that I believe gets a bad rap in some corners and which will grow in esteem and appreciation over time. But no category is a slam dunk. No race is without some stiff and compelling competition. And the broad support it had in the nods could very well evaporate once you start getting into the details and the circumstances of each award and the strong alternatives out there.

    Thoughts?

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    Nikhil
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    I think it’s best chances are in VFX and Adapted Screenplay, and I currently predict it will lose both. So yes, it’s Gangs of New York part 2.

    Top 3 Films of the Year: Parasite, The Farewell, OUATIH

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    JackO
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    #1203284433

    Yes

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    Bassett
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    #1203284512

    It could very well win Screenplay but the American Hustle treatment is a big possibility. And honestly, I wouldn’t be mad at it

    FYC :

    Best Actress - Viola Davis
    Best Actor - Delroy Lindo, Chadwick Boseman
    Best Supp Actor - Daniel Kaluuya, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II

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    cinetastic
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    #1203284548

    I really hope so.

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    Riley Chow
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    Yes and its top ranking in Editing is nonsense, but it could win Adapted Screenplay like The Descendants did as a respectable Best Picture nominee or Production Design like Lincoln to recognize the overall craft of the film or Visual Effects like The Curious Case of Benjamin Button because it is the closest to Best Picture of the bunch and used revolutionary de-aging techniques.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    It’s best chances are in Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing and Visual Effects. I am not predicting for it to win in any of those categories, though. I think Little Women will win Adapted Screenplay. It’s between Avengers: Endgame and 1917 for Visual Effects (I am predicting the latter). I am thinking Ford v Ferrari can win for Film Editing and would love for that or Parasite to win, but Thelma Schoonmaker’s name recognition could help – personally I found the film to be an hour longer than it needs to be and in serious need of more editing to slim it down. I do think Film Editing is it’s best shot at winning one Oscar this year.

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    UberTag
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    I don’t know why exactly but I’m still clinging to the notion that Irishman can take down the editing Oscar for Schoonmaker. I’ll make the switch to the more technically accomplished Ford v Ferrari if The Irishman fails to win the Eddie on Friday.

    Of Thelma’s 6 previous editing nominations for Scorsese films, she won the Eddie in 4 of those years – the three that she ultimately won an Oscar for and the last was for Gangs when Chicago was in the opposite category.

    Maybe I just want the “remember when Scorsese came up empty with 10 noms for Gangs” allegories to go away. The Irishman feels like it’s been much more warmly received (anti-Netflix bias notwithstanding).

    I don’t believe The Irishman can win anything else outside of Visual Effects… and that will probably require some vote-splitting between the three Disney blockbusters (I presently have The Lion King winning; Robert Legato seems to be money whenever he’s nominated).

    The narrative for Adapted Screenplay seems to be shifting heavily in Gerwig’s favour thanks to the directing snub. Not to mention that the unique spin on an otherwise known commodity is largely what Little Women has justifiably earned raves for.

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    Caleb Siebeneck
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    The Irishman will have to pull victories at both the WGA and the BAFTAs to get back into the likelyhood of it winning best adapted screenplay, which at this point is its best shot at an Oscar.

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    I don’t know why exactly but I’m still clinging to the notion that Irishman can take down the editing Oscar for Schoonmaker. I’ll make the switch to the more technically accomplished Ford v Ferrari if The Irishman fails to win the Eddie on Friday. Of Thelma’s 6 previous editing nominations for Scorsese films, she won the Eddie in 4 of those years – the three that she ultimately won an Oscar for and the last was for Gangs when Chicago was in the opposite category. Maybe I just want the “remember when Scorsese came up empty with 10 noms for Gangs” allegories to go away. The Irishman feels like it’s been much more warmly received (anti-Netflix bias notwithstanding). I don’t believe The Irishman can win anything else outside of Visual Effects… and that will probably require some vote-splitting between the three Disney blockbusters (I presently have The Lion King winning; Robert Legato seems to be money whenever he’s nominated). The narrative for Adapted Screenplay seems to be shifting heavily in Gerwig’s favour thanks to the directing snub. Not to mention that the unique spin on an otherwise known commodity is largely what Little Women has justifiably earned raves for.

    They’re not voting for the individual people. They’re voting for the entire movie. The Lion King has been widely criticized for how uncanny the CGI on the animals are. Not a chance.

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    Chimichanggas
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    #1203284812

    I’m still looking forward for a supporting actor upset. Brad Pitt could win some time.

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    Moviebuff22
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    I’m still looking forward for a supporting actor upset. Brad Pitt could win some time.

    Wut

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    John Berchmans
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    The short answer is: there’s a chance.

    Adapted Screenplay is it’s only shot at an above-the-line win unless PGA does something very unexpected. Right now I’m predicting Jojo Rabbit just because of the TIFF stat, but I think any of the 4 Picture nominees in that category could take it.

    As for below-the-line, there’s a few categories I think it could win, but probably won’t. The first one is Editing, which I’m predicting Ford v Ferrari in again now that it got nominated for Best Picture. The second is Visual Effects, where I’m reciting it for now. But the controversy surrounding the de-aging CGI may have not only cost De Niro his nomination, but this film it’s win.

    If it wins anything, I think it wins Costume Design. There’s no clear frontrunner in that category and the Oscars love Sandy Powell, so they’ll probably just give it to her.

    Fuck the Grammys

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    If it wins anything, I think it wins Costume Design. There’s no clear frontrunner in that category and the Oscars love Sandy Powell, so they’ll probably just give it to her.

    The Oscars don’t “love” Powell because of her name. Her name doesn’t even appear on the ballot! Only the film title does.

    Powell has had great success over the years with the Oscars because she’s been attached to films that allowed her to make a very distinctive mark on the story with a strong, heavily stylized, or iconic look.

    Nothing like that happens in THE IRISHMAN. The costumes are period-faithful but there isn’t a single outfit, a single setpiece, a single memorable moment where the costumes really did pop in a way to fix in people’s memories. They did exactly what they needed to do, and given how many characters and scenes there are over the decades the film takes place, the sheer volume of her effort is enormous, but that doesn’t mean the specifics around the work stand out.

    Plus, people usually remember a film’s outfits because of what the women characters wear (which generally allows for a lot more color and variety in design) and there are barely any women in the film! There’s a little formal wear but mostly just regular working class and business outfits from the 50s & 60s but not much else. That’s not to diminish her craftsmanship; but it is exactly the kind of costumes that never pick up an actual Oscar. The closest analogy is BUGSY, but that still has a lot of glamour because of its intersection with Hollywood, which Scorsese’s film doesn’t have.

    I’d say the front-runner is LITTLE WOMEN because it has the most women characters in the central story which means that there are a lot more different types of dresses and outfits, especially relative to each of the March girls’ character, plus the heavy period trappings (its the only nominee that’s not set in the 20th century) which always goes over well.

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    Elazul
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    EDITING Thelma is a legend and if she wins, it’ll be the most Editing Oscars ever won by anybody. But the running joke about the film’s runtime will be a constant reminder that for many, surely there was *something * she could have cut. And while her pacing is methodical and perfectly-suited for the film, it’s still not the rhythm that the members like to vote for and I can see a FORD V FERRARI easily taking this because for many, Best Editing is Most Editing (and there are very very few “action” setpieces in IRISHMAN and even those only last a minute or two.

    It almost feels ironic that they nominated a 3.5 hours long movie for best editing…

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