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January 24, 2016 at 9:56 am #212579
Are you predicting the same film will win both Best Picture and Best Director or do you think it will be like 2012 and 2013 where there was a split between the two awards for two different movies?January 24, 2016 at 10:22 am #212581
There is a good chance for a split but it depends…………..January 24, 2016 at 10:26 am #212582
Since TBS is now the official frontrunner to win BP I pray to God this is another split year, with Miller taking BD. McCay just can’t win BD. His is no directorial achievement at all, period.January 24, 2016 at 11:33 am #212583
I don’t see any reason for a split. Big Short will carry McKay along for the ride.January 24, 2016 at 12:04 pm #212584
Whoever wins DGA will win the Oscar.January 24, 2016 at 12:11 pm #212585
Right now, I’m feeling either “The Big Short” or “Spotlight” for Picture, with Miller taking Director. McKay would be one of the worst Best Director winners of all-time, but thankfully, I see him in third.January 24, 2016 at 12:19 pm #212586
1. The Big Short
2. The Revenant
1. The Revenant
2. The Big Short
3. Mad Max: Fury RoadJanuary 24, 2016 at 12:29 pm #212587
Whoever wins DGA will win the Oscar.
(1) McKay wins DGA and then Oscar
(2) Miller wins DGA and then Oscar
(3) Inarritu wins DGA and then Oscar
(4) Inarritu wins DGA but loses Oscar to Miller or McKay
I think Inarritu is slightly vulnerable even if he wins DGA because he was on the stage 3 times last year.January 24, 2016 at 1:15 pm #212588
I think it most likely will unless McKay wins the DGA. Miller will most likely win if there is one unless they love Inarritu that much.January 24, 2016 at 1:31 pm #212589This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.January 24, 2016 at 1:42 pm #212590This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.January 24, 2016 at 3:27 pm #212591
Since TBS is now the official frontrunner to win BP I pray to God this is another split year, with Miller taking BD. McCay just can’t win BD. His is no directorial achievement at all, period.
His is a masterful Directorial achievement, of great performances, Editing, Writing, perfectly balancing the storylines, the Drama & Comedy, with some genuinely dark jabs at our corrupt capitalist system. It’s relevant, and about as cleverly and brilliantly executed as it could have been IMO. I think Miller winning would be great, but his Bafta snub says it all. Because of the PGA results, I am now convinced that The Big Short is a confirmed lock to win at least these 3 Oscars: Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay.
[/quote] THANK YOU!! I saw the film again yesterday and I realized how it was actually flashy and showy as a directorial achievement and if what Steve Carell said is true about how much ad-libbing there was then that is all thanks to McKay helping them ad-lib. I know it’s a long shot because he made so many Will Ferrell movies but it could happen.January 24, 2016 at 3:51 pm #212592
big short wins picture and mckay wins director so no splitJanuary 24, 2016 at 4:08 pm #212593
My guess is we will have a split, even if McKay wins DGA. I will only be convinced about him winning the Oscars if he wins Bafta too. TBS is a new Crash and Argo – will win Picture, Screenplay and Editing and the Academy will say “that’s good enough”. The crafts people will not stand behind McKay even if they do like and rank the film high on their ballots. A new Ang Lee might emerge: either Brokeback’s Lee (they admire and respect him even if not enough to award the film) or Life of Pi’s Lee (the crafts railed behind a guy who ensured many of their peers good jobs, and felt like a true auteur). The preferential ballot has killed the default Best Director winner we became used to. Also, please remember that McKay has not won literally anything this season – nada! Even Tom Hooper had picked up small trophies. Even if he wins DGA, that will be his only win. Is the Academy likely to do that… to Adam McKay?! Sure, they went for Tom Hooper and Michel Hazanavicius, but those had the European flare and felt at least a little auteuristic, and the Academy didn’t really know who those guys were. They do however know who the American McKay is, they know the crappy films he’s done in the past, and this is the first “respected” one. My gut tells me they will say “too much too soon”, and look for Miller or AGI yet again (I’m leaning towards Miller).January 24, 2016 at 4:16 pm #212594
Just to clarify one thing: I do know that if Affleck had been nominated he would have won over Lee. I am not stupid. But Affleck had the narrative (in fact, he was the narrative) and he had accumulated respect from previous works too. I don’t need to remind you about how charismatic he is, do I? What I am hinting at is what drove Lee to win in that field, even if the film never really had a realistic shot at a BP win. The same people are more likely to go Miller than McKay (I’m saying Miller instead of AGI because RIGHT NOW I don’t think they are willing to go for him a second consecutive year, but DGA and Bafta – if he wins both – could prove me wrong. Miller is the one giving me Ang Lee for Life of Pi vibes).
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