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December 26, 2019 at 7:19 am #1203250418
Colman was an “upset”?
Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?
Philip K Dick Blade RunnerDecember 26, 2019 at 7:35 am #1203250436
She wasn’t, certainly not to the extent people make it out to be. Goldderby loves to exaggerate things.
This, she had the Comedy Globe & BAFTA under her belt before her Oscar win.
If Saoirse Ronan the year prior (Lady Bird) had won the BAFTA in addition to her Comedy Globe, if she then won the Oscar over Frances. That wouldn’t have been considered an upset at all.December 26, 2019 at 7:36 am #1203250438
Colman was an “upset”?
I think she was in a sense that everyone was expecting Glenn to win but I do see what you mean. She wasn’t THAT big of an upset as many people act like. Olivia Colman was the critical fave, had the British support and was in a Best Picture nominee. Nobody fits that bill this year that would defeat the presumed frontrunners so I don’t think she would be a good comparison here.December 26, 2019 at 7:56 am #1203250447
Idk, but having 4 early frontrunners being locks as people in this site suggest is just…
I think there may be an upset tbh.December 26, 2019 at 8:01 am #1203250454
In other words, is there any chance that a C/M nominee at the Globes surprises at BAFTA and carries themselves to an Oscar win? Considering Thompson and Feldstein are strictly Globes fodder, Blanchett’s film wasn’t even submitted properly, and de Armas is likely finished, even after a potential Globe win. Awkwafina is the only possibility in Best Actress. However, she failed to acquire a SAG nomination and things aren’t looking stellar for BAFTA either, so I doubt she could pull it off. Craig and Davis got their reward with their respective Globe nominations, which leaves DiCaprio, Egerton, and Murphy. Murphy missed SAG, despite his film being fairly SAG-friendly, which doesn’t bode well for a BAFTA nod. Gold Derby has him as the frontrunner to win at the Globes, but I am fairly certain he has lost his good will with the HFPA, at least enough for a heavy campaigner (Egerton) or an industry favorite (DiCaprio) to ultimately take it. DiCaprio is likely going to be nominated at BAFTA and Oscars, considering the love for both him and Tarantino at both. However, he just won both awards for his last film, so it’s fairly unlikely he’ll claim both. The Globe is entirely feasible, but his winning streak will probably end there. Egerton, on the other hand, is another potential Globe spoiler. BAFTA will likely nominate him, given the love for British icon Elton John and his aggressive campaigning. A BAFTA win would be shocking and would definitely up his status in the race significantly, especially if Phoenix or Driver become shaky frontrunners. Unfortunately, Rocketman is probably nowhere near Best Picture contention, which would make it practically impossible for Egerton to take the Oscar.
Essentially, of the C/M Globe nominees, the only possibilities are Awkwafina (who might not even get nominated), Egerton (entirely dependent on a precursor over-performance), or DiCaprio (likeliest, but still hard to envision).
The supporting actress category don’t really align either. BAFTA doesn’t really care about Clint Eastwood, so Bates isn’t happening there. With an unlikely chance of winning the Globe, she’s probably out of contention for an Oscar win, let alone a nomination. Bening could be lucky to be nominated, given the barren category, but there is little chance she would win. With that said, her narrative is about how overdue she is, so that would be the complete opposite of a Colman win anyways. Shuzhen is fighting for a nomination at best, so she’s more equatable to Marina de Tavira in this instance. Kidman might just be a SAG thing, but if she can muster up BAFTA support, she might sneak in, albeit not for a win. Dern and Lopez are pretty safe, with Robbie slightly trailing. BAFTA will probably go for the three of them, but any shock win (i.e. Johansson in Jojo or Pugh in LW) would be insignificant, given their lack of precursor nods. Johansson stands the greatest chance of running away with it somehow, but her Best Actress bid also might hinder the likelihood of that happening, unless a general consensus of wins sets Zellweger up for a sweep and the Academy seeks to award Johansson a la Jessica Lange. Essentially, if Johansson or Pugh get in, either actress
Song Kang-ho can probably sneak in over Hopkins, but he isn’t beating Pitt’s sweep. Brown, Snipes, Foxx, and any other fringe contender is likely DOA. Pesci probably stands the greatest chance of besting Pitt, which could make for a Colman-esque win, but the heavy presence of veterans in the category only helps Pitt’s pull.
In conclusion, Pesci would be the only “passion-pick besting an overdue frontrunner.” However, Pesci would likely have to sweep the awards Pitt is expected to garner, so that would take away the frontrunner status anyways. No race is shaping up to resemble last year’s Best Actress race.December 26, 2019 at 8:07 am #1203250458
Only because most people had convinced themselves it Glenn vs whoever pre-season then it was Glenn vs Gaga once the televised’s began.
No one took Colman seriously because she didn’t fit the bill for a Best Actress winner while Close and GAGA did. People knew she would win BAFTA because she’s a beloved British actress and the Golden Globe comedy was a given.December 26, 2019 at 8:09 am #1203250460
Dern. But in order for that to happen Marriage Story has to leave the ceremony without a win.December 26, 2019 at 8:33 am #1203250480
Even if she won the Globe, Bafta and critics, Colman still beat an Hollywood legend who had the CC+Globe+SAG combo on her 7th nomination, how was she not an upset ?
Glenn has won every single acting award imaginable expect an Oscar (and a Bafta), don’t act like she wasn’t expected to finally win that nightDecember 26, 2019 at 8:39 am #1203250489
Close had the precursors to back her up just like Colman but what convinced people about her winning was the overdue narrative especially after Oldman’s win. We should have seen it though, GG and BAFTA is hard to beat and Colman was in a stronger movie.December 26, 2019 at 8:45 am #1203250501
Close had the precursors to back her up just like Colman but what convinced people about her winning was the overdue narrative especially after Oldman’s win. We should have seen it though, GG and BAFTA is hard to beat and Colman was in a stronger movie.
It all depends though.
Cotillard (GG + BAFTA) Beat Christie (CC+ GG+ SAG)
Meryl Streep (GG+ BAFTA) beat BP nominee and Viola Davis (CC + SAG)
But Sean Penn’ Milk (CC + SAG) beat Mickey Rourke (GG + BAFTA)
GG + BAFTA is not always unbeatable.
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