Will Three Billboards be this year's Argo?

[ETPhoneHomeParticipant Joined: Jan 3rd, 2013 Topics: 40 Posts: 3056 View Predictions]

#1202475699

With the surprise directing snub, the question now needs to be asked. Discuss.

• This topic was modified 1 year, 1 month ago by  ETPhoneHome.

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[Zooey the DreamerParticipant Joined: Jan 12th, 2012 Topics: 6 Posts: 1118 View Predictions]

#1202475724

No. Because McDonagh is not Ben Affleck. And unlike Argo, 3B won’t sweep SAG, PGA, DGA, WGA. It already won SAG, but lost PGA and is not eligible for WGA.

And unlike Argo, 3B has soooo many detractors.
3B will win Actress (and probably Supporting Actor). And that’s it.

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[Anonymous Joined: Jan 1st, 1970 Topics: 98 Posts: 12704 View Predictions]

#1202475730

No, it won’t. The movie was already super-divisive as it was, the Directing snub torpedoes its Best Picture chances, whereas with Argo that film was less divisive, though admittedly not everyone loved it. Plus, Ben Affleck had the comeback narrative to use the Directing snub to help the film win Best Picture, whereas Martin McDonagh doesn’t have any kind of emotional or larger narrative.

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[IckyParticipant Joined: Jun 28th, 2012 Topics: 23 Posts: 4887 View Predictions]

#1202475795

TSOW is an easy alternative and front-runner. There was no real clear and strong alternative for Argo. And Affleck was pushed out due to competition. Martin was likely pushed out (similar to Bigelow for ZDT) due to controversy surrounding the film.

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[Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)Participant Joined: Nov 18th, 2012 Topics: 146 Posts: 4551 View Predictions]

#1202475796

Yeah, no. Three Billboards is much too divisive for that to happen. Also, there are three alternatives in the BP race this year: TSOW, Get Out and Lady Bird, while Lincoln was really Argo’s only true competition.

• This reply was modified 1 year, 1 month ago by  Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1).
• This reply was modified 1 year, 1 month ago by  Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1).

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[RileyKeymaster Joined: Oct 11th, 2010 Topics: 118 Posts: 14348 View Predictions]

#1202475803

^ These guys said it all.

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[SagandParticipant Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 3 Posts: 423 View Predictions]

#1202475850

I think it could be. I don’t have the same reading on how the preferential ballot works as the rest of you. I think LLL lost due to who was voting not how they were voting.

The director’s branch was under lots of political pressure to nominate Gerwig and Peele. With actor support and the stronger script Three Billboards isn’t out of it yet.

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[ETPhoneHomeParticipant Joined: Jan 3rd, 2013 Topics: 40 Posts: 3056 View Predictions]

#1202475859

I think that it clearly has a lot of support from a number of branches still. I think it’s fair to say we still have a race, though I will agree that the DGA is unlikely to steer away from Del Toro like they did with Ben Affleck.

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[Anonymous Joined: Jan 1st, 1970 Topics: 98 Posts: 12704 View Predictions]

#1202475863

@tomgladston “With actor support and the stronger script Three Billboards isn’t out of it yet.” Sorry, but I cannot resist this one. As usual, Sagand is stating his opinion as facts! Caught red-handed right there. 😉

I’m pretty sure there are a ton of people who would argue The Big Sick has a stronger script than Three Billboards, let alone Lady Bird and Get Out, but whatever.

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[Anonymous Joined: Jan 1st, 1970 Topics: 7 Posts: 531 View Predictions]

#1202475867

No and it makes me like…

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[Spark87Participant Joined: Apr 26th, 2013 Topics: 0 Posts: 281 View Predictions]

#1202475872

Yes and no. I’m still predicting “Three Billboards” as the winner with Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Sup. Actor, Best Original Screenplay and maybe Best Editing. Still I’m predicting “The Shape of Water” to end with more Oscars that night (Best Director, Best Cinematography, Best Soundtrack, Best Production Design, Best Sound Editing & Mixing and maybe Editing)

Not quite the same but almost “Three Billboards” will be this year “Moonlight” while “The Shape of Water” will be this year “La La Land”.

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[SagandParticipant Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 3 Posts: 423 View Predictions]

#1202475878

Anonymous wrote:

I’m pretty sure there are a ton of people who would argue The Big Sick has a stronger script than Three Billboards, let alone Lady Bird and Get Out, but whatever.

I was clearly comparing the screenplays of SoW and Three Billboards the two films still in the running for Best Picture. You can tell this by my use of the comparative adjective rather than the superlative.

I’m so confused with your response to this thread it sound like you don’t think Three Billboards is winning. You must believe Three Billboards is still winning right? It’s locked? You’ve said so so many times. You wouldn’t have misused the word locked? Would you?

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[Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)Participant Joined: Nov 18th, 2012 Topics: 146 Posts: 4551 View Predictions]

#1202475887

Sagand wrote:

Teridax wrote:

I’m pretty sure there are a ton of people who would argue The Big Sick has a stronger script than Three Billboards, let alone Lady Bird and Get Out, but whatever.

I was clearly comparing SoW and Three Billboards the two films still in the running for Best Picture.

I’m so confused with your response to this thread it sound like you don’t think Three Billboards is winning. You must believe Three Billboards is still winning right? It’s locked? You’ve said so so many times. You wouldn’t have misused the word locked? Would you?

I know you were talking to Teridax, but I will probably keep Three Billboards in my #2 for at least until the BAFTAs. If it doesn’t have a great night there, I don’t see it winning BP.

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[VolcarockaParticipant Joined: Mar 29th, 2015 Topics: 0 Posts: 337 View Predictions]

#1202475890

Sagand wrote:

Teridax wrote:

I’m pretty sure there are a ton of people who would argue The Big Sick has a stronger script than Three Billboards, let alone Lady Bird and Get Out, but whatever.

I was clearly comparing SoW and Three Billboards the two films still in the running for Best Picture.

I’m so confused with your response to this thread it sound like you don’t think Three Billboards is winning. You must believe Three Billboards is still winning right? It’s locked? You’ve said so so many times. You wouldn’t have misused the word locked? Would you?

Someone LOUDLY asserting what they believe as ABSOLUTE FACT until it looks like they might be wrong, then quietly changing the narrative to pretend they were never wrong at at? On THIS forum? Get outta here.

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[RileyKeymaster Joined: Oct 11th, 2010 Topics: 118 Posts: 14348 View Predictions]

#1202475906

Three Billboards having a stronger script than The Shape of Water is an opinion and we all understand that.  It is widely accepted enough that stating it like a fact should not be controversial, like saying that Crash robbed Brokeback Mountain or even that Sam Rockwell was the stronger supporting actor in Three Billboards.

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