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Would Glenn Close have beat Laura Dern last year?

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Would Glenn Close have beat Laura Dern last year?
Glenn Close
Laura Dern
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    RobertPius
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    #1204230853

    If Hillbilly Elegy had been released last year do you think Close could have won or would she have faced the same political problems.

    Dern’s win was widely regarded as a career/overdue narrative for a rather plain performance.

    Close would have definitely had the upper hand in the overdue area but how would she have fared against Dern’s better received film?

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    Ghost
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    #1204230858

    No, no, no.

    Laura Dern had huge critical support and was in a Best Picture nominee. She swept all of the precursors.

    Glenn’s issue will always be that she’s always the best thing in an unseen or panned movie. That’s not good enough for the mass voters.

    Glenn will win when she is the critical favorite in a BP vehicle. Simple.

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    RobertPius
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    #1204230874

    No, no, no.

    Laura Dern had huge critical support and was in a Best Picture nominee. She swept all of the precursors.

    Glenn’s issue will always be that she’s always the best thing in an unseen or panned movie. That’s not good enough for the mass voters.

    Glenn will win when she is the critical favorite in a BP vehicle. Simple.

    did Dern really have huge critical support? I remember a lot of people being baffled as to how she was winning so much.

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    Ghost
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    #1204230878

    did Dern really have huge critical support? I remember a lot of people being baffled as to how she was winning so much.

    Yes. She won numerous critic awards before her sweeping the actual award precursors.

    And people who were baffled either didn’t like her performance or just wanted someone else to win that year (remember the J. Lo brigade?). She was the critics’ choice that year. Not to mention, she just came off an award sweep for Big Little Lies.

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    crabbie
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    #1204230881

    It was already known Laura Dern would have been Marriage Story‘s consolation prize. She was also the critics favorite that year. Netflix would be more supportive of campaigning for Laura Dern since they did not even send SAG screeners of Hillbilly Elegy. Dern would benefit from international support too since she did win at BAFTA over British Florence Pugh so her overdue narrative was at a level that was undeniable most likely due to her ties with the Academy’s activities. Marriage Story had 5 BAFTA nominations so international support was there and was not a critically panned film.

    If I’m being honest Glenn Close would never win for this role under any circumstance.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    roger88
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    #1204230896

    Simple answer: No way.

    Dern has critical support – She won NYFCC, NSFC, Boston, Dallas and other awards. Her film was way better critically wise. Netflix was willing to campaign (They didn’t with Hillbilly Elegy) and considering the lineup last year, Close may not be nominated considering Dern and Bates are the veterans of 2019.

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    schmids
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    #1204230932

    Absolutely not.

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    Mickmack
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    #1204230972

    Dern would have still won. All Ron Howard had to do was make Hillbilly Elegy an OK film and Close would have won. He blew it!

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    syrus80
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    #1204230997

    I don’t know what Glenn has to do to win. Dangerous Liaisons was a BP nominee and she couldn’t win for that either.

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    mateil
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    #1204231001

    I don’t think Glenn could win for that performance in any year.

    However, if The Wife came out this year or last year, I think she would have won Lead Actress.

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    gorman
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    #1204231011

    I don’t know what Glenn has to do to win. Dangerous Liaisons was a BP nominee and she couldn’t win for that either.

    She needs to mix passion for the performance and the film with her narrative. The Wife was little-seen and beaten by a film and performance with much more passion behind it. Hillbilly Elegy was panned and beaten by a performance and film with much more passion behind it. Her other recent nomination, Albert Nobbs, also didn’t stand a chance.

    Recent winners like Colman, Hopkins and McDormand struck this balance well. I imagine there’s lots of respect of Close and her narrative among voters, but it’s just really hard to win an Oscar in underseen or panned films, whoever you are, especially if you’re up against beloved performances which she has been for her last two noms.

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    aahoto
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    #1204231013

    I don’t know what Glenn has to do to win. Dangerous Liaisons was a BP nominee and she couldn’t win for that either.

    It’s only recently that the acting prizes have become Best Lead/Supporting Performance in the Best Film awards.

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    hillslight
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    #1204231032

    No, but I think she would’ve beat Zellweger with The Wife

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    Pinkpie48
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    #1204231115

    If Close was nominated over Burstyn and Foster this year, she would have made it in over Bates last year.

    A win was never going to happen for this film though.

    I agree that she might have beaten Zellweger with The Wife though. But it could have gone either way.

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    forwardswill
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    #1204231118

    Given that Dern was stronger than Youn by a mile, no.

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