January 15, 2016 at 7:13 pm #210102
Most Derbyites can consistently predict the Oscar nominations at about 70% accuracy or more. But what’s really impressive is when they can call out a nominee or winner months in advance, without any precursors or reviews to guide them.
But let’s face it, most of the time these predictions fall flat on their faces.
Let’s share both our early successes and failures here!
I started my predictions in mid-August on my IMDb page. Here’s some things I was able to successfully predict way in advance:
– With the exception of Matt Damon, my Best Actor lineup looked identical to the eventual nominees, even including Bryan Cranston (I had Depp over Damon, though)
– I predicted a Mark Rylance win in August, and hung on to him even as I saw him slip past the top ten around October. Now, I predict Sly, but Rylance has been in the top two positions the entire time
– I never once predicted Suffragette to gain a single nomination, even when most people presumed it a serious contender in the beginning
– I, like most others, predicted The Revenant and Bridge of Spies since the beginning, and both ended up with some of the most nominations of any film; also, I predicted a Leonardo DiCaprio win in March
– I predicted When Marnie Was There, and took out The Good Dinosaur and The Peanuts Movie (however I did have the Prophet over Boy and the World)
– “Serious” contenders I never bought: Straight Outta Compton, Michael Caine and Jane Fonda in Youth, the aforementioned Suffragette, Kristen Stewart for Clouds of Sils Maria
Some of my (many) failures:
– Steve Jobs winning Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay (shut out in ALL of these categories)
– Steve Jobs, Trumbo, the Danish Girl, Inside Out, Joy, The Hateful Eight, and Black Mass all being in my original Best Picture lineup – which didn’t include Brooklyn, Spotlight, The Martian, The Big Short, Mad Max, or Room
– Julianne Moore for Best Actress and Ellen Page for Supporting in Freeheld (way before any reviews or even trailers came out)
– I had Benedict Cumberbatch being nominated for Supporting Actor for Black Mass – not only did he never even end up in the conversation, but Joel Edgerton ended up being the much more viable option (I predicted a nom for him later on, too)
– Not knowing who Jennifer Jason Leigh was and therefore looking over her for Supporting Actress in The Hateful Eight
– Predicting a David O. Russell win at one point (at least I never predicted a Joy win, though)
As you can see, my failures way outweigh my successes… but still, I think it’s fun to reevaluate past predictions.
January 15, 2016 at 9:05 pm #210104
Until early December, I had Lenny Abrahamson in my predictions for Best Director. Should have kept him there.
However, even from very early on, I never expected ‘Joy’ to get a Best Picture nomination. That would be my only success.January 16, 2016 at 1:21 am #210106
I predict all white people will win. Barf!January 16, 2016 at 1:59 am #210107
I predict all white people will win. Barf!
You are incredibly boring at this point.January 16, 2016 at 2:11 am #210108
I always had Cranston, Rampling and Abrahamson in.
I hung on to Tomlin and Fonda until very near the end only changing them the day before.
I wish I’d stuck to my guns and left out Carol which I guessed wasn’t happening but was too chicken to delete.January 16, 2016 at 2:34 am #210109
Best early predictions:
1. “Inside Out” for Best Original Screenplay.
2. No “Joy” in that category, when almost everyone was cocky about it getting in (“overwhelmingly positive response at the screenings”).
3. “Ex Machina” for Visual Effects.
Worst early predictions:
1. Michael Caine for “Youth”.
2. Rooney Mara as Best Actress.
3. Jake Gyllenhaal for “Southpaw”.January 16, 2016 at 4:59 am #210110
Well, we all had higher expectations of “Carol”, “Joy” and “Suffragette” back in September, October… I also thought Vikander could have pulled double nomination.January 16, 2016 at 5:15 am #210111
– The newcomer will not get two nominations.
– Kate Winslet
– No Steve Carell & Johnny Depp
– No Jane Fonda
– Jennifer Lawrence
– Sandra Bullock
– No Sylvester Stallone
– No Tom Hardy
– Joy for multiple Oscar nominationsJanuary 16, 2016 at 5:52 am #210112
I don’t know about best, but my worst early prediction was definitely Bradley Cooper getting in to Best Actor for Burnt.January 16, 2016 at 10:01 am #210113
No Johny Depp
January 16, 2016 at 10:52 am #210114
My early predictions (June) were awful this year.
Best: 4/5 of cinematography (Missing only Sicario)
3/5 in both Actor and Actress
Never bought the hype on Joy and only had it for 2 noms (Actress and Screenplay)
Worst: I had Jake Gyllenhaal and Naomi Watts both winning for Demolition with the film also getting nominated for best picture and original screenplay
Julianne Moore nominated for Freeheld
Predicting Spectre for 3 nominations and none of them being for song
Only getting 3 right in Best Picture: The Revenant, The Martian, and Bridge of Spies
1/5 in Director the only one right being Inarritu
Out of the 19 winners I predicted, I am only sure that my animation pick is right (Inside Out).
Only three of my other picks even have a remote chance of being right: Mad Max for Editing, The Martian for Visual Effects (A long shot still), and Cinderella for Costume Design.January 16, 2016 at 10:29 pm #210115
I had The Hateful Eight, Steve Jobs and Danish Girl back and forth in the top slot but mostly because I didn’t know who would be a clear winner at that point
Predicted the Michael Keaton “snub” since day one. Never bought that he was “overdue” or worthy of a nomination for this role at all
Never predicted Idris Elba either. Just didn’t think a Netflix movie would be embraced fresh out of the gate
Had When Marnie Was There in since Day One
I’ll have to investigate more laterJanuary 16, 2016 at 10:57 pm #210116
I predicted Straight Outta Compton for Best Picture and Sound Mixing, yet I believe the consensus is that I got it right, the Oscars themselves are the ones who got it WRONG. 😉
I also never at any point, had Star Wars (now Disney Wars IMO) in my Best Picture predictions or in any of the major categories, since day one, even before I saw it and wound up hating it!
I’m also very proud of calling Tarantino’s screenplay exclusion, and thus I actually got ALL 5 Best Original Screenplay nominees correct! I also went 3/3 on Makeup & Hairstyling, I almost replaced The 100-Year-Old Man with Mr. Holmes the night before, and am so freaking glad I didn’t.
I also called every Mad Max: Fury Road nomination in the EXACT 10 categories they would get in, no more, no less.
I really regret not hanging onto When Marine Was There. But even Princess Kaguya had won some critical Awards. I was afraid it would be to much of a “Hopediction.” “sigh” There’s always next year, 900th place out of 3700 predictors isn’t terrible, right?
For your Goldderby Film Awards consideration: Isle of Dogs for every category, especially Music Score for Alexandre Desplat!January 16, 2016 at 11:12 pm #210117
– 100% in the animated category — ‘When Marnie Was There’ and ‘Boy and the World’
– Predicting ‘Theeb’ over ‘Labyrinth of Lies’ in FL
– Predicting Mara in lead and Vikander for ‘Ex Machina’
– Predicting a Tom McCarthy snub
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