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June 12, 2019 at 2:42 pm #1202935037
Billie will probably win BNA. Lewis could win SoTY if nominated.June 12, 2019 at 2:50 pm #1202935049
For every Sam Smith, you have several other Ed Sheerans, John Mayers, (lost), Shawn Mendeses, James Arthurs, Charlie Puths, Andy Grammers, Passengers, etc. (not even nominated).
It doesn’t matter that Lewis Capaldi is vaguely similar to Sam Smith or whatever balladeers have won this category before. They don’t default to giving Best New Artist to the same types of artists; just this decade alone, the award has gone to an extremely diverse group of artists ranging in genre from singer-songwriter pop to dance-pop to hip-hop to country to even jazz.
Billie Eilish is this year what Cardi B would have been last year had she been eligible: an undeniable frontrunner and all but certain to be the winner. No, Lewis Capaldi is not a threat to her. The fact that this is even a debate is ridiculous.
What the fuck are these comparisons? How are Charlie Puth, Shawn Mendes, or really anyone outside of Sam Smith and Ed Sheeran close to Capaldi?
Plus, he has the biggest hit and album of the year in the U.K. The UK voting block definitely has a lot of influence as a very big amount of winners have been Brits or Canadians.
Billie Eilish can definitely lose; it’s not unprecedented.June 12, 2019 at 2:52 pm #1202935054
How are Charlie Puth, Shawn Mendes, or really anyone outside of Sam Smith and Ed Sheeran close to Capaldi?
They make more sense than you comparing Billie to Avril Lavigne and Fiona Apple…
Billie Eilish can definitely lose; it’s not unprecedented.
It’s also not realistic.June 12, 2019 at 3:44 pm #1202935111
The difference being that there was not a clear frontrunner that year.June 12, 2019 at 4:58 pm #1202935168
Weird tangent, but from what I can gather, the 2014 BNA line-up (Ed Sheeran, Macklemore, James Blake, Kacey Musgraves, Kendrick Lamar) has been the only one this century in which all of the nominees have won at least one award. Shows how competitive it might’ve been.
All of the 2005 nominees (Los Lonely Boys, Maroon 5, Joss Stone, Kanye West, and Gretchen Wilson) are Grammy winners as well. All of them except Joss Stone won that same year, too.
But yes, those are the only two groups of nominees that have all won this century.June 12, 2019 at 9:54 pm #1202935402
BNA is Billie’s or Lizzo’s to win, as it should be.June 12, 2019 at 10:23 pm #1202935418
I do see why people are saying that Lewis Capalidi could get BNA, but Billie Eillish is having a MASSIVE year with her debut album receiving critical and commercial success. All of her songs are topping the charts, streaming services and all. She’s practically a lock for Best New Artist.June 13, 2019 at 4:35 am #1202935579
I expected the “British balladeer” thing to pan out for Calum Scott last year, and it didn’t so I wouldn’t be too confident in Capaldi at this point.June 13, 2019 at 5:00 am #1202935633
As of now, there are only 10 artists that goldderby has at better than 100/1 odds for an AOTY nom, and most of them are hella unrecognized by the Grammys.
Billie Eilish: 0 nods
Lizzo: 0 nods
Tyler the Creator: 0/2
Vampire Weekend: 1/2
Anderson Paak: 1/3
Ariana Grande: 1/6
+ darlings Gaga and Beyoncé
It feels weird to predict so many acts with little Grammy history contending for AOTY… but I guess it’s not too different from the most recent lineup, which featured 4 acts who had 0-2 nods prior to that ceremony.
Country is the second most prevalent genre among AOTY nominees in the 2010s, but I guess we could have a lineup without a country/Americana album if there isn’t a definitive choice. I’d say Maren Morris just because she’s gotten a lot of noms in very few years, but I don’t think GIRL really fits the mold.June 13, 2019 at 5:07 am #1202935651
Lewis Capaldi is more of a James Arthur than a Sam Smith/Ed Sheeran.June 13, 2019 at 5:14 am #1202935657
Country is the second most prevalent genre among AOTY nominees in the 2010s, but I guess we could have a lineup without a country/Americana album if there isn’t a definitive choice. I’d say Maren Morris just because she’s gotten a lot of noms in very few years, but I don’t think GIRL really fits the mold.
Rap: 10June 13, 2019 at 5:15 am #1202935659
I’m actually surprised people are arguing BNA. They may as well engrave Billie Eilish name on the trophy right now. The only way I can see her losing is if she is not eligible for some reason, or her label forgets to submit her for whatever reason. Or if she says something racist.
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