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2020 Grammy Awards Predictions (Part 10)

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    M
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    #1203018210

    Also at this point, no TUN will not be the biggest album of the year. If we’re talking YEC, it’ll most likely be When We All Fall Asleep Where Do We Go?. It’s having much better longevity than TUN and will probably outsell it very soon.

    For singles, it’s not even guaranteed that any of Ariana songs will be in the top 5 to be honest. I think the top 3 will be OTR, Bad Guy and Sunflower.

    We can agree that when Dancing With A Stranger, a song older than 7 Rings is charting higher now, Ariana has a longevity problem. She peaked too early this year but what helps her is the lack of competition for nominations.

    • This reply was modified 10 months ago by M.
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    abelfenty
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    #1203018218

    If ‘Truth Hurts’ wins ROTY, it’ll easily also win SOTY.

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    Darren
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    #1203018385

    And what are you trying to say? Should black urban artists make “safe music” to be accepted by white voters? Rap has been a pioneering, changing genre within the last 5 years. Rather this should be grabbing force when all these genres are grabbing from rap, such as pop, electronic, country, and r&b. That should be a grabbing point for voters.

    Didn’t say that. Quit putting words in my mouth.

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    Vogue
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    #1203018424

    Also at this point, no TUN will not be the biggest album of the year. If we’re talking YEC, it’ll most likely be When We All Fall Asleep Where Do We Go?. It’s having much better longevity than TUN and will probably outsell it very soon. For singles, it’s not even guaranteed that any of Ariana songs will be in the top 5 to be honest. I think the top 3 will be OTR, Bad Guy and Sunflower. We can agree that when Dancing With A Stranger, a song older than 7 Rings is charting higher now, Ariana has a longevity problem. She peaked too early this year but what helps her is the lack of competition for nominations.

    Ariana doesn’t have any “longevity problem”. Sorry her singles don’t spend months at the top of radio which allow it to spend a year on the chart. Just because something doesn’t spend more than 40 weeks on the chart, does not mean it didn’t have longevity. Start praising those songs for that type of success and stop knocking other artists for not achieving it. I swear it’s like Shallow did an insane amount of weeks and now Ariana is subject to spend at least 40 weeks or its a flop. 7 Rings is on 30 weeks and counting. So please.

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    Vogue
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    #1203018432

    Like in what world is spending 25+ weeks on the Hot 100 on average equate to having a “longevity problem”? The amount of goal posts y’all move. It’s one thing after the other.

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    ELIAS
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    #1203018484

    Didn’t say that. Quit putting words in my mouth.

    Then what should these urban artists do then? When similar acts like Kacey Musgraves have advocated for the authenticity of country music and talks about  lack of acceptance for country industry for all minorities, and yet she was accepted with country and crossover voters. She might have  the most “safe” sound but not “safe”  background. Yet many of the Rapper homologize their sound to be the “safe” pick like Kendrick or Drake, yet they aren’t picked like Bruno, Adele, or Taylor.

    albums: græ, how i’m feeling now, future nostalgia, starmaker, sawayama, the slow rush, after hours, suddenly, fetch the bolt cutters, 2017-2019, the new abnormal, circles, heavenly to a tortured mind

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    ELIAS
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    #1203018490

    Also at this point, no TUN will not be the biggest album of the year. If we’re talking YEC, it’ll most likely be When We All Fall Asleep Where Do We Go?. It’s having much better longevity than TUN and will probably outsell it very soon. For singles, it’s not even guaranteed that any of Ariana songs will be in the top 5 to be honest. I think the top 3 will be OTR, Bad Guy and Sunflower. We can agree that when Dancing With A Stranger, a song older than 7 Rings is charting higher now, Ariana has a longevity problem. She peaked too early this year but what helps her is the lack of competition for nominations.

    You’re point of longevity is invalid, especially when you have heavenly critized Ariana for weeks. Anyhow, we over the moment in music history. Because any pop song can have longevity, but did that song have longevity. This could follow last year’s winner This is America, which dipped in longevity and charts, yet it won of songs that had “longevity” like Gods Plan, Rockstar, The Middle, etc. Old Town Road and Thank U, Next created moments; not just moments in their respective career, but pop moments during the eligibility period. So Thank U, Next should be included in the discussion.

    albums: græ, how i’m feeling now, future nostalgia, starmaker, sawayama, the slow rush, after hours, suddenly, fetch the bolt cutters, 2017-2019, the new abnormal, circles, heavenly to a tortured mind

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    Darren
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    #1203018504

    Then what should these urban artists do then? When similar acts like Kacey Musgraves have advocated for the authenticity of country music and talks about lack of acceptance for country industry for all minorities, and yet she was accepted with country and crossover voters. She might have the most “safe” sound but not “safe” background. Yet many of the Rapper homologize their sound to be the “safe” pick like Kendrick or Drake, yet they aren’t picked like Bruno, Adele, or Taylor.

    When artists make art for the sake of art and not for the sake of awards, sales, and other outside validation, it tends to be better.

    As far as the Grammys go, there’s not any one winning formula in particular, and hip-hop has won in all four main categories at least once, so it’s possible.

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    Bee
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    #1203018509

    Then what should these urban artists do then? When similar acts like Kacey Musgraves have advocated for the authenticity of country music and talks about lack of acceptance for country industry for all minorities, and yet she was accepted with country and crossover voters. She might have the most “safe” sound but not “safe” background. Yet many of the Rapper homologize their sound to be the “safe” pick like Kendrick or Drake, yet they aren’t picked like Bruno, Adele, or Taylor.

    I can see where DC is coming from but this is the crux of what many don’t understand. The goalposts constantly shift for black artists with acclaimed projects every time they lose to something that’s mediocre or by-the-numbers by a white artist. So even though To Pimp a Butterfly was the most acclaimed album of that year with Kendrick having 11 noms and it being so important, it still lost to 1989 because “oh well, sales and accessibility”. Okay.

    Kendrick comes out with DAMN two years later and that’s much more accessible than TPAB, sells more, has a #1 single, just as much raves as TPAB and gained him a new audience. He swept the rap field that night and yet lost all of the GF categories to something mediocre (24k Magic), which also won every category it was nominated for. So what was the issue there? Other than genre bias? It’s the same argument used when BEYONCÉ lost to Morning Phase (Beck was an overdue veteran with acclaim). Okay, so Lemonade has even more praise and very good sales (amongst the highest of the year), more of a pop culture movement and still loses to a more accessible, ballad-filled album.

    What I’m getting at is that black people usually have to work twice as hard to get credit or recognition. This is evident in all of the awards shows; it is no coincidence that only one black woman has won Best Actress in the 91 years the Oscars have been around (a half-black woman at that with a jezebel performance). Is race always the MAIN factor when it comes to the Grammys? No. But is it an indirect one? Absolutely. It’s much more complex than “WE HATE BLACK PEOPLE”.

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    Boz
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    #1203018538

    They don’t hate black people (and nobody said they do, but okay).

    The problem with these statements, though, is that by saying they dislike hip-hop and R&B, you are unconciously saying that they do have a racial bias. Hip Hop and R&B are predominantly black genres, and it’s no surprise that the only albums and songs that win in the GF by black artists are safe and often generic; meanwhile, the political ones that speak on racism, or issues regarding it, get pushed aside.

    And no, I’m not buying the whole coincidence argument either. Voters are supposed and expected to listen to the albums, and if they don’t then that just shows the mediocrity of the Recording Academy voters – who are, surprise surprise, mostly white and old.

    FYC: Joji – Best New Artist
    Nectar – Album of The Year, Best Alternative Album
    Run – ROTY, SOTY, Rock Song, Rock Performance
    Gimme Love - Best Music Video

    FYC: Ariana Grande
    Rain On Me: ROTY, Pop Duo/Group Performance
    Imagine - SOTY, Pop Solo Performance
    Nobody (w/ Chaka Khan) - Best Trad R&B Perf.

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    Boz
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    #1203018540

    On the topic of Ariana (again), y’all are reaching. I’m personally not predicting her to win anything other than Pop Solo (though she’s my second pick for Song of the Year), but the arguments presented here are so bland that they clearly show bias.

    No. Voters do not give a flying fuck about who won the award and who didn’t, so saying that they won’t give it to Ariana because “Gaga has never won” is a new level of stupidity. If they cared so much about Gaga, she would’ve won. Period.

    The only argument that makes sense is that her music is not Grammy bait, which is completely valid and true. That said, she’s 6 noms deep in the Pop field, and she’s been nominated over bigger albums/songs by heavyweights in the past. She also managed to get noms while still being a teen pop star.

    And before we start: yes, Gaga 100% won Pop Solo thanks to A Star is Born. Pop voters probably wanted a sweep (they seem to like those), and some voters could’ve even gotten confused when voting or just name-checked her. The Netflix special might’ve helped a bit, but ASIB was it’s driving factor. Saying otherwise would be delusional.

    That said, my GF predictions:
    Album of the Year – A Star is Born (if nominated)/Cuz I Love You
    Record of the Year – Sunflower
    Song of the Year – Someone You Loved
    Best New Artist – William

    FYC: Joji – Best New Artist
    Nectar – Album of The Year, Best Alternative Album
    Run – ROTY, SOTY, Rock Song, Rock Performance
    Gimme Love - Best Music Video

    FYC: Ariana Grande
    Rain On Me: ROTY, Pop Duo/Group Performance
    Imagine - SOTY, Pop Solo Performance
    Nobody (w/ Chaka Khan) - Best Trad R&B Perf.

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    Darren
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    #1203018550

    And before we start: yes, Gaga 100% won Pop Solo thanks to A Star is Born.

    So if Gaga beat Ariana last year because of ASIB (with a song that wasn’t from the movie), why would Ariana win over her this year with a song that is actually from the movie?

    also,

    Album of the Year – Cuz I Love You
    Best New Artist – William

    What actually…? Unless this prediction is based on the idea that one of them is not nominated in both categories.

    • This reply was modified 10 months ago by Darren.
    • This reply was modified 10 months ago by Darren.
    • This reply was modified 10 months ago by Darren.
    • This reply was modified 10 months ago by Darren.
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    abelfenty
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    #1203018557

    This year is so weak I can’t even decide who I think will win ROTY/SOTY 💀. But I’m thinking;

    Album: Father of the Bride
    New Artist: Lizzo

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    dOminiK13_
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    #1203018562

    “A Star Is Born Soundtrack” has now sold over 2.1 million units in the US!

    I hope you don’t say that the album has been forgotten.

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    dOminiK13_
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    #1203018564

    I’ll give you that, but the other heavily predicted winners are Billie, who is also a new artist, and Ariana, who would win on her first GF nom. Billie, Lizzo, and Capaldi all have very baity albums, for very different reasons each

    you must be sick to say that Ari has real chances of winning AOTY

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