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2020 Grammy Awards Predictions (Part 10)

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  • Darren
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    #1203018072

    You might have a point there had Bruno Mars not previously won 5 Grammys off of his established brand as a pop star.

    Or, maybe, had they picked a pop artist who actually had enough support to get nominated for Best Pop Vocal Album (like Ed Sheeran). Very few people actually expected Lorde to win AOTY when it was her only nomination that year.

    OR if Melodrama were a bigger commercial success than 24K Magic… or a commercial success at all.

    • This reply was modified 4 months ago by  Darren.
    • This reply was modified 4 months ago by  Darren.
    • This reply was modified 4 months ago by  Darren.
    Boz
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    #1203018077

    You might have a point there had Bruno Mars not previously won 5 Grammys off of his established brand as a pop star.

    Or, maybe, had they picked a pop artist who actually had enough support to get nominated for Best Pop Vocal Album (like Ed Sheeran). Very few people actually expected Lorde to win AOTY when it was her only nomination that year.

    My point still stands considering the last time an alternative pop singer songwriter, and the most mentioned comparison to Billie in these threads, won Album of the Year was in 1996. To put that in perspective, 3 R&B/hip hop albums have won AOTY after 1996.

    Boz
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    #1203018081

    Also, I would like to remind y’all that this argument comes just a few days after some posters said Billie wasn’t winning AOTY because she was 17 – which I responded to by saying voters don’t care about age. It must be pure coincidence that those same posters are the ones suddenly supporting Billie.

    In the words of the Generous queen Nicki Minaj: pick a side, pick a side.

    Marlon G
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    #1203018083

    New things can happen next year really. This year is evidently different in music. I wonder what the Recoriding Academy will do.

    Darren
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    #1203018086

    3 R&B/hip hop albums have won AOTY after 1996.

    but if you want to get specific about gender like you were with alternative, only one of those was by a woman, and that was also prior to the 21st century.

    PoweR
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    #1203018093

    Lizzo’s disadvantage is not that she is an R&B/Hip Hop artist (people use this conveniently; she was a pop artist a couple months ago). It’s because she’s a black female. The last black female to win AOTY was Lauryn Hill in 1999… almost 21 years ago.

    Billie would stand a better chance because she’s more successful… and white. After Lauryn’s win, eight albums by white females have won AOTY.

    Boz
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    #1203018102

    but if you want to get specific about gender like you were with alternative, only one of those was by a woman, and that was also prior to the 21st century.

    I wasn’t specific about gender – the last alternative pop singer songwriter album to win AOTY was Jagged Little Pill, unless you conaider Morning Phase alternative pop, which it isn’t.

    And even using gender, Ms Hill won after Alanis.

    I will admit, though, that being a black female hurts Lizzo, a point you tried shake off as false.

    Matt2019
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    #1203018110

    Old Town Road will finally end their record breaking Hot 100 reign within 2-3 weeks.

    Matt2019
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    #1203018112

    Ariana and Lizzo aren’t winning AOTY. Billie could, depending on what the competition looks like.

    It’s safe to say Billie and Lizzo are both getting in (either would be a massive snub), and we all know Grammy voters are more likely to pick the pop/alternative singer-songwriter over the R&B/pop/hip-hop artist. So if it comes down to the two of them, we all know who would have the edge. Especially since Billie is more popular.

    Either would be deserving (although I have a softer spot for When We All Fall Asleep…, which is a stunning record), but let’s be realistic.

    Again, the Grammys does not care about chart success at all, but music needs to have a best quality.

    • This reply was modified 4 months ago by  Matt90210.
    • This reply was modified 4 months ago by  Matt90210.
    Darren
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    #1203018114

    That’s the only thing I’m not buying because I’m not sure why the Grammys would suddenly have an issue with black women specifically after giving the top award to Lauryn Hill over Sheryl Crow, Madonna, and Shania Twain, which was by no means an uncompetitive roster. And because while no black woman may have won after Lauryn, several black artists have: OutKast, Ray Charles, Herbie Hancock.

    Not to mention Childish Gambino, Alicia Keys, Chance the Rapper, Esperanza Spalding, John Legend, Seal, Luther Vandross, and Beyoncé won in other general field categories in the same period of time we’re talking about.

    The Grammys have an obvious blind spot with hip-hop and contemporary R&B, but I’m not a fan of baseless accusations of racism where they don’t apply. If Lizzo loses to Billie Eilish in any category this year, it will be because Billie is closer to the type of artist the Grammys typically fall for (which is not a synonym for “white” – see Alicia Keys), and because Billie is more successful than her.

    Matt2019
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    #1203018119

    That’s the only thing I’m not buying because I’m not sure why the Grammys would suddenly have an issue with black women specifically after giving the top award to Lauryn Hill over Sheryl Crow, Madonna, and Shania Twain, which was by no means an uncompetitive roster. And because while no black woman may have won after Lauryn, several black artists have: OutKast, Ray Charles, Herbie Hancock.

    Not to mention Childish Gambino, Alicia Keys, Chance the Rapper, Esperanza Spalding, John Legend, Seal, Luther Vandross, and Beyoncé won in other general field categories in the same period of time we’re talking about.

    The Grammys have an obvious blind spot with hip-hop and contemporary R&B, but I’m not a fan of baseless accusations of racism where they don’t apply. If Lizzo loses to Billie Eilish in any category this year, it will be because Billie is closer to the type of artist the Grammys typically fall for (which is not a synonym for “white” – see Alicia Keys), and because Billie is more successful than her.

    I only expect Billie Eilish to win Best new artist and ROTY. But, she wont win AOTY especially Ariana Grande because Taylor Swift is coming back to avenge from last year’s shocking AOTY snub with Lover(which it will likely be 1989/speak now vibes album).

    PoweR
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    #1203018121

    The Grammys have an obvious blind spot with hip-hop and contemporary R&B,

    So, this shouldn’t be a big issue for Lizzo since you originally said her music is pop. The racism arguments are not baseless. Your arguments are just not consistent.

    Pauly Antonio
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    #1203018123

    I only expect Billie Eilish to win Best new artist and ROTY. But, she wont win AOTY especially Ariana Grande because Taylor Swift is coming back to avenge from last year’s shocking AOTY snub with Lover(which it will likely be 1989/speak now vibes album).

    …..

    y'all ugly and smelly

    Darren
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    #1203018125

    So, this shouldn’t be a big issue for Lizzo since you originally said her music is pop. The racism arguments are not baseless. Your arguments are just not consistent.

    I’ve addressed this argument of yours before and you have conveniently chosen to ignore it. I have remained consistent.

    Darren
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    #1203018129

    This is going to be my last comment on the race issue for the night.

    The Grammys do have a tendency to go for safe, boring, and yes, often white choices over more exciting, adventurous, and relevant albums, including those by artists of color. But do I think that is inherently racist? No.

    Take 2016, for example. I, like many here, found the choice of 1989 over To Pimp a Butterfly to be incredibly safe and uninspired. But can I see why it ended up that way, without reducing it to “THEY HATE BLACK PEOPLE”? Yes, absolutely.

    Number one, 1989 was a commercial giant. Most people listened to it or at the very least, heard a handful of its singles on the radio ad nauseum. Kendrick’s album produced no legitimate chart hits. Familiarity always helps. Should Grammy voters be listening to every nominated album? Yes. Are they? Probably not all of them.

    Secondly, 1989 is just a more accessible album. It’s light, breezy, melodic, catchy, and has a short runtime. To Pimp a Butterfly largely lacks in catchy pop hooks, doesn’t follow mainstream hip-hop trends, it’s long, aggressive, heavily conceptual, and requires a deep analysis of its lyrics – and often repeat listens – in order to be fully appreciated. If a Grammy voter had just become familiar with the album for the first time upon seeing the nominations list, it may not be an instant like. Or, it may just not be their type of thing at all. Different strokes for different folks.

    Weird choices are always going to happen when you have a contest that essentially compares apples and oranges. Billie Eilish and Lizzo, for example? They couldn’t be any more different.

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