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2020 Grammy Awards Predictions (Part 11)

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    Boz
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    #1203032511

    Mgmt

    Should’ve won Pop Duo with Kids, wbk.

    FYC: Joji – Best New Artist
    Nectar – Album of The Year, Best Alternative Album
    Run – ROTY, SOTY, Rock Song, Rock Performance
    Gimme Love - Best Music Video

    FYC: Ariana Grande
    Rain On Me: ROTY, Pop Duo/Group Performance
    Imagine - SOTY, Pop Solo Performance
    Nobody (w/ Chaka Khan) - Best Trad R&B Perf.

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    Darren
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    #1203032513

    Joanne winning was an anomaly due to an insanely weak category and the ASIB hype lead Gaga to win there.

    But my point is, if it won because of ASIB, and “Joanne” wasn’t even from that movie, then why are some people not taking an actual song from the movie – one that has high sales and streaming numbers, to boot – seriously as a threat to win this year?

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    Boz
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    #1203032520

    But my point is, if it won because of ASIB, and “Joanne” wasn’t even from that movie, then why are some people not taking an actual song from the movie – one that has high sales and streaming numbers, to boot – seriously as a threat to win this year?

    The movie feels old. They might also feel like they already rewarded her last year for the movie.

    FYC: Joji – Best New Artist
    Nectar – Album of The Year, Best Alternative Album
    Run – ROTY, SOTY, Rock Song, Rock Performance
    Gimme Love - Best Music Video

    FYC: Ariana Grande
    Rain On Me: ROTY, Pop Duo/Group Performance
    Imagine - SOTY, Pop Solo Performance
    Nobody (w/ Chaka Khan) - Best Trad R&B Perf.

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    Darren
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    #1203032525

    The movie feels old. They might also feel like they already rewarded her last year for the movie.

    They haven’t really used that logic previously though. Not when they gave Pop Collaboration to Krauss & Plant 2 years in a row; not when they gave Pop Solo to Adele 2 years in a row; not when Lady Antebellum won Country Album 2 years in a row; not when they gave Bruno Mars a second ROTY win for an “Uptown Funk” clone; etc.

    No one is saying she’s unbeatable – not me, anyway – but the excuses being thrown around to undermine her chances just aren’t that great.

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    Bee
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    #1203032528

    But my point is, if it won because of ASIB, and “Joanne” wasn’t even from that movie, then why are some people not taking an actual song from the movie – one that has high sales and streaming numbers, to boot – seriously as a threat to win this year?

    We’re not saying it can’t win. What I’m saying is that the logic of it being a lock isn’t consistent. You’re looking at the win without looking at the circumstances around the win. That was last year with no strong frontrunner and when ASIB’s era still had media hype. It didn’t win solely because of ASIB, it also won because the category was filled with Ariana, Post, and Camila Cabello, artists that didn’t have the same built up level of respect in regards to their music or status. One is looked at as a joke when it comes to actually rewarding him, another had too much of a teenboppy image, and the other had a song that wasn’t undeniable in the slightest in spite of her following win in the Pop Album category. It was an exception, not a rule to Gaga.

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    6 GOD
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    #1203032534

    Not sure what metric you are using to quantify this statement when the soundtrack and its songs are still selling and streaming well.

    Also not sure why you’re acting like the movie was released 5 years ago.

    The album performed exceptionally well at the start of the year, but its currently #47. That’s below last year’s AOTY nominees of Scorpion, beerbongs & bentley’s, and Invasion of Privacy.
    The hype I am talking about is during last year’s voting period ASIB was still playing in theatres, still getting major acclaim, still had constant media promotion, and still had an ongoing word of mouth. There’s none of that now.
    That is hype being gone.

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    Darren
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    #1203032537

    It was an exception, which is why it is the only winner of Pop Solo so far that wasn’t a chart hit, and the first time a non-hit had won an adjacent category since Jason Mraz winning Male Pop Vocal Performance in 2010.

    But I do think that if a random, non-charting album track with weak numbers can pull off the win based largely on the power of that artist’s name (in however weak of a lineup), that same artist can’t just be written off when she’s got a Platinum hit that was in a standout scene of a hit movie, whose soundtrack has sold like hotcakes.

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    Bee
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    #1203032540

    They haven’t really used that logic previously though. Not when they gave Pop Collaboration to Krauss & Plant 2 years in a row; not when they gave Pop Solo to Adele 2 years in a row; not when Lady Antebellum won Country Album 2 years in a row; not when they gave Bruno Mars a second ROTY win for an “Uptown Funk” clone; etc. No one is saying she’s unbeatable – not me, anyway – but the excuses being thrown around to undermine her chances just… aren’t that great.

    These comparisons aren’t great. Adele is Adele. 24K Magic was in a category against two rap songs (Story of OJ and Humble), a low-key R&B song (Redbone), and Despacito. They were never gonna reward the first three and Bruno was also SWEEPING the night, so? Lady Antebellum had two major successful albums back to back so it’s no shock why they won again. Their competition was…Taylor Swift? Again, different situations.

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    Darren
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    #1203032544

    Lady Antebellum had two major successful albums back to back so it’s no shock why they won again. Their competition was…Taylor Swift?

    Taylor and Jason Aldean were considered the frontrunners. Lady Antebellum winning that year was a huge upset and was only a testament to voters’ residual love for them from “Need You Now.”

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    Bee
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    #1203032547

    Viewing

    Not to mention that even with all of that, it’s not like ASIB as a whole was irresistable when it came to winning. What started off as a frontrunner to multiple categories ended as the token Shallow show.

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    Boz
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    #1203032553

    They haven’t really used that logic previously though. Not when they gave Pop Collaboration to Krauss & Plant 2 years in a row; not when they gave Pop Solo to Adele 2 years in a row; not when Lady Antebellum won Country Album 2 years in a row; not when they gave Bruno Mars a second ROTY win for an “Uptown Funk” clone; etc.

    Bruno’s ROTY wins weren’t in two consecutive years.
    Adele is Adele. You can’t compare her to most people, including Gaga.

    And like Bee said, it’s not that Gaga can’t win. But I really don’t believe she’s a lock to win if nominated in the Pop categories, when this year she has legit competition and she’s probably not campaigning as she did last year with ASIB.

    Lady Antebellum didn’t win twice because of Need You Now, Bruno Mars didn’t win twice because of Uptown Funk.

    Gone Gone Gone and Rich Woman are both covers of classic songs, and Rober and Allison probably had all of the Americana and country voters to back them up – and even then, they (like Adele) won in consecutive years after their album won big. There’s no telling if voters moved on from A Star is Born; and frankly, if it was as big of a things among voters as 21 or Raising Sand, then Shallow should’ve won ROTY and/or SOTY.

    FYC: Joji – Best New Artist
    Nectar – Album of The Year, Best Alternative Album
    Run – ROTY, SOTY, Rock Song, Rock Performance
    Gimme Love - Best Music Video

    FYC: Ariana Grande
    Rain On Me: ROTY, Pop Duo/Group Performance
    Imagine - SOTY, Pop Solo Performance
    Nobody (w/ Chaka Khan) - Best Trad R&B Perf.

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    Darren
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    #1203032556

    Not to mention that even with all of that, it’s not like ASIB as a whole was irresistable when it came to winning. What started off as a frontrunner to multiple categories ended as the token Shallow show.

    I mean, “Shallow” was released almost on the last day of eligibility last year. A song getting 4 nominations, including the two biggies, that late is unprecedented, I believe. And that is a blessing and a curse. On the one hand, yes, it would have been very fresh in voters’ minds when they cast their final ballots in December-January. But on the other hand, it only had a short window of time to leave an impression on voters while “This Is America” had almost an entire year.

    This does not even begin to account for the fact that “Shallow” became an even bigger hit months after Grammy ballots were cast.

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    emba
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    #1203032563

    What are some potential music video nominees?

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    Darren
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    #1203032565

    But I really don’t believe she’s a lock to win if nominated in the Pop categories, when this year she has legit competition

    That’s fair, and I do agree that she has competition from Billie Eilish who has a massive radio hit with both pop and alternative appeal. Other than that…? I’m not seeing Ariana, Halsey, or Shawn as threats to her. Ariana couldn’t even beat Gaga’s damn album track with a hit single. I’m aware of the circumstances. It still shows that she doesn’t command the same level of respect.

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    Darren
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    #1203032573

    What are some potential music video nominees?

    Billie Eilish – Bad Guy/Bury a Friend/Hostage/When the Party’s Over/You Should See Me in a Crown
    FKA Twigs – Cellophane
    Lil Dicky – Earth
    Lil Nas X feat. Billy Ray Cyrus – Old Town Road
    Anderson .Paak feat. Kendrick Lamar – Tints
    Travis Scott – Sicko Mode
    Ed Sheeran feat. Chance the Rapper & PnB Rock – Cross Me
    Solange – Almeda
    Taylor Swift – Me!/You Need to Calm Down
    21 Savage feat. J. Cole – A Lot

    These are the most likely picks that I’m aware of, but they also tend to make some obscure choices.

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