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2020 Grammy Awards Predictions (Part 11)

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  • Darren
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    Lady Antebellum had two major successful albums back to back so it’s no shock why they won again. Their competition was…Taylor Swift?

    Taylor and Jason Aldean were considered the frontrunners. Lady Antebellum winning that year was a huge upset and was only a testament to voters’ residual love for them from “Need You Now.”

    Bee
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    Viewing

    Not to mention that even with all of that, it’s not like ASIB as a whole was irresistable when it came to winning. What started off as a frontrunner to multiple categories ended as the token Shallow show.

    Boz
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    They haven’t really used that logic previously though. Not when they gave Pop Collaboration to Krauss & Plant 2 years in a row; not when they gave Pop Solo to Adele 2 years in a row; not when Lady Antebellum won Country Album 2 years in a row; not when they gave Bruno Mars a second ROTY win for an “Uptown Funk” clone; etc.

    Bruno’s ROTY wins weren’t in two consecutive years.
    Adele is Adele. You can’t compare her to most people, including Gaga.

    And like Bee said, it’s not that Gaga can’t win. But I really don’t believe she’s a lock to win if nominated in the Pop categories, when this year she has legit competition and she’s probably not campaigning as she did last year with ASIB.

    Lady Antebellum didn’t win twice because of Need You Now, Bruno Mars didn’t win twice because of Uptown Funk.

    Gone Gone Gone and Rich Woman are both covers of classic songs, and Rober and Allison probably had all of the Americana and country voters to back them up – and even then, they (like Adele) won in consecutive years after their album won big. There’s no telling if voters moved on from A Star is Born; and frankly, if it was as big of a things among voters as 21 or Raising Sand, then Shallow should’ve won ROTY and/or SOTY.

    Darren
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    Not to mention that even with all of that, it’s not like ASIB as a whole was irresistable when it came to winning. What started off as a frontrunner to multiple categories ended as the token Shallow show.

    I mean, “Shallow” was released almost on the last day of eligibility last year. A song getting 4 nominations, including the two biggies, that late is unprecedented, I believe. And that is a blessing and a curse. On the one hand, yes, it would have been very fresh in voters’ minds when they cast their final ballots in December-January. But on the other hand, it only had a short window of time to leave an impression on voters while “This Is America” had almost an entire year.

    This does not even begin to account for the fact that “Shallow” became an even bigger hit months after Grammy ballots were cast.

    emba_91
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    What are some potential music video nominees?

    Darren
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    But I really don’t believe she’s a lock to win if nominated in the Pop categories, when this year she has legit competition

    That’s fair, and I do agree that she has competition from Billie Eilish who has a massive radio hit with both pop and alternative appeal. Other than that…? I’m not seeing Ariana, Halsey, or Shawn as threats to her. Ariana couldn’t even beat Gaga’s damn album track with a hit single. I’m aware of the circumstances. It still shows that she doesn’t command the same level of respect.

    Darren
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    What are some potential music video nominees?

    Billie Eilish – Bad Guy/Bury a Friend/Hostage/When the Party’s Over/You Should See Me in a Crown
    FKA Twigs – Cellophane
    Lil Dicky – Earth
    Lil Nas X feat. Billy Ray Cyrus – Old Town Road
    Anderson .Paak feat. Kendrick Lamar – Tints
    Travis Scott – Sicko Mode
    Ed Sheeran feat. Chance the Rapper & PnB Rock – Cross Me
    Solange – Almeda
    Taylor Swift – Me!/You Need to Calm Down
    21 Savage feat. J. Cole – A Lot

    These are the most likely picks that I’m aware of, but they also tend to make some obscure choices.

    Boz
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    That’s fair, and I do agree that she has competition from Billie Eilish who has a massive radio hit with both pop and alternative appeal. Other than that…? I’m not seeing Ariana, Halsey, or Shawn as threats to her. Ariana couldn’t even beat Gaga’s damn album track with a hit single. I’m aware of the circumstances. It still shows that she doesn’t command the same level of respect.

    I guess, though I still think Ariana’s case is much stronger. Thank U, Next was a 7 week #1 hit, and was very very acclaimed – God is a woman was barely a real hit.

    Right now I’m not predicting anyone for a Pop Solo win, at least not until the nominees come out. There are a bunch of “what ifs” regarding most of the possible outcomes.

    Boz
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    A bit unrelated, but what are your thoughts on Happier (Stripped) and Lovely making it into Pop Duo?

    I think we might be underestimating Happier. After all, it is kinda Grammy-bait, and probably the biggest hit in contention after Old Town Road and Sunflower.

    Darren
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    “very very acclaimed” (read: a handful of positive reviews cribbed from the song’s Wikipedia page; I don’t think she’s being mentioned in the same sentences as Radiohead or Björk or whoever) doesn’t mean a whole lot when we’re talking about mainstream pop music. The 7 weeks at #1? That matters a little more.

    Boz
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    “very very acclaimed”

    She was #2 on the YE aggregate for the Best Songs of 2018. That song was virtually on every best list, and when it wasn’t then another song by her was.

    Darren
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    A bit unrelated, but what are your thoughts on Happier (Stripped) and Lovely making it into Pop Duo?

    I think we might be underestimating Happier. After all, it is kinda Grammy-bait, and probably the biggest hit in contention after Old Town Road and Sunflower.

    “Happier” was big enough last year that it should have gotten more votes than something like “Fall in Line” or “Don’t Go Breaking My Heart.” Don’t see it getting in this time if submitted.

    Bee
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    I mean, “Shallow” was released almost on the last day of eligibility last year. A song getting 4 nominations, including the two biggies, that late is unprecedented, I believe. And that is a blessing and a curse. On the one hand, yes, it would have been very fresh in voters’ minds when they cast their final ballots in December-January. But on the other hand, it only had a short window of time to leave an impression on voters while “This Is America” had almost an entire year. This does not even begin to account for the fact that “Shallow” became an even bigger hit months after Grammy ballots were cast.

    Well, unlike This is America, Shallow had a whole hit of a movie attached to it that had Oscar buzz galore ever since its release on festival runs in the beginning of September of last year. Everybody knew Gaga was winning the Oscar, the rehearsed and overdramatic speeches, the aggressive campaigning and it was a ballad so it definitely had many advantages that should have put it over the edge in a category like SOTY. Even after Gaga’s 3 wins (and M being shook when he wrongly declared of a sweep), she still lost…..to a heavily political song that wasn’t even lyrically good. It should’ve won given the circumstances, but didn’t. So I’m not really buying the excuses. If they wanted her to have a great night, she would’ve won both no matter what.

    Darren
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    She was #2 on the YE aggregate for the Best Songs of 2018.

    Of which website, exactly?

    Darren
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    If they wanted her to have a great night, she would’ve won both no matter what.

    Or maybe the truth is somewhere in between these two extremes that you’re describing.

    Judging from its large nomination haul (4 after just 2-3 weeks of being released) and the fact that it still won 2 awards, I think it’s clear voters had a lot of love for that song. Maybe they just liked “This Is America” more… and that’s not a ding against “Shallow” in any way like you’re implying it is.

    she still lost…..to a heavily political song that wasn’t even lyrically good.

    Where were you in 2007? This year was more or less a repeat of that.

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