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2020 Grammy Awards Predictions (Part 11)

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  • Boz
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    That’s fair, and I do agree that she has competition from Billie Eilish who has a massive radio hit with both pop and alternative appeal. Other than that…? I’m not seeing Ariana, Halsey, or Shawn as threats to her. Ariana couldn’t even beat Gaga’s damn album track with a hit single. I’m aware of the circumstances. It still shows that she doesn’t command the same level of respect.

    I guess, though I still think Ariana’s case is much stronger. Thank U, Next was a 7 week #1 hit, and was very very acclaimed – God is a woman was barely a real hit.

    Right now I’m not predicting anyone for a Pop Solo win, at least not until the nominees come out. There are a bunch of “what ifs” regarding most of the possible outcomes.

    Boz
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    A bit unrelated, but what are your thoughts on Happier (Stripped) and Lovely making it into Pop Duo?

    I think we might be underestimating Happier. After all, it is kinda Grammy-bait, and probably the biggest hit in contention after Old Town Road and Sunflower.

    Darren
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    “very very acclaimed” (read: a handful of positive reviews cribbed from the song’s Wikipedia page; I don’t think she’s being mentioned in the same sentences as Radiohead or Björk or whoever) doesn’t mean a whole lot when we’re talking about mainstream pop music. The 7 weeks at #1? That matters a little more.

    Boz
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    “very very acclaimed”

    She was #2 on the YE aggregate for the Best Songs of 2018. That song was virtually on every best list, and when it wasn’t then another song by her was.

    Darren
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    A bit unrelated, but what are your thoughts on Happier (Stripped) and Lovely making it into Pop Duo?

    I think we might be underestimating Happier. After all, it is kinda Grammy-bait, and probably the biggest hit in contention after Old Town Road and Sunflower.

    “Happier” was big enough last year that it should have gotten more votes than something like “Fall in Line” or “Don’t Go Breaking My Heart.” Don’t see it getting in this time if submitted.

    Bee
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    I mean, “Shallow” was released almost on the last day of eligibility last year. A song getting 4 nominations, including the two biggies, that late is unprecedented, I believe. And that is a blessing and a curse. On the one hand, yes, it would have been very fresh in voters’ minds when they cast their final ballots in December-January. But on the other hand, it only had a short window of time to leave an impression on voters while “This Is America” had almost an entire year. This does not even begin to account for the fact that “Shallow” became an even bigger hit months after Grammy ballots were cast.

    Well, unlike This is America, Shallow had a whole hit of a movie attached to it that had Oscar buzz galore ever since its release on festival runs in the beginning of September of last year. Everybody knew Gaga was winning the Oscar, the rehearsed and overdramatic speeches, the aggressive campaigning and it was a ballad so it definitely had many advantages that should have put it over the edge in a category like SOTY. Even after Gaga’s 3 wins (and M being shook when he wrongly declared of a sweep), she still lost…..to a heavily political song that wasn’t even lyrically good. It should’ve won given the circumstances, but didn’t. So I’m not really buying the excuses. If they wanted her to have a great night, she would’ve won both no matter what.

    Darren
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    She was #2 on the YE aggregate for the Best Songs of 2018.

    Of which website, exactly?

    Darren
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    If they wanted her to have a great night, she would’ve won both no matter what.

    Or maybe the truth is somewhere in between these two extremes that you’re describing.

    Judging from its large nomination haul (4 after just 2-3 weeks of being released) and the fact that it still won 2 awards, I think it’s clear voters had a lot of love for that song. Maybe they just liked “This Is America” more… and that’s not a ding against “Shallow” in any way like you’re implying it is.

    she still lost…..to a heavily political song that wasn’t even lyrically good.

    Where were you in 2007? This year was more or less a repeat of that.

    Boz
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    Of which website, exactly?

    https://www.albumoftheyear.org/songs/best/2018/

    It’s not like it’s the only relevant source regarding critics, but it does weigh in most important publications/best lists.

    Mr Brightside
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    ASIB elevated Gaga to another level in terms of respect and that pop solo win is a reflection of that. It doesn’t mean she is Adele level of a favorite, but it means she is someone to keep in eye on if you want to increase your predictions success rate. Similarly, Shawn Mendes nomination last year shows he is taken more seriously that we thought. Because of that, we are kind of forced to predict him this year.

    It doesn’t matter anyway because Billie Eillish is wining that category, but I would say Gaga is a distant #2.

    MarinaBelo2
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    Judging from its large nomination haul (4 after just 2-3 weeks of being released) and the fact that it still won 2 awards, I think it’s clear voters had a lot of love for that song. Maybe they just liked “This Is America” more… and that’s not a ding against “Shallow” in any way like you’re implying it is.

    Come on… Shallow was being promoted like crazy at that time. Of course it was on the voters’ radar + it was extremely baity + it hit top 5. It could have barely made the top 20 for ROTY and SOTY.

    The only “surprising” nomination(and win) Gaga had that could point to voters being in love with her was Joanne. And that category was one of the weakest ever, we couldn’t even come up with 3 “locks” for months and most of us expected Delicate(a song that wasn’t even top 10 and had NO impact) to win. If Gaga didn’t have ASIB’s hype to help her, the pop singer nominated instead(most likely Kelly) would probably win anyway.

    Anyway, if Gaga gets nominated in that category again, I think she will win. You guys are too in love with Billie Eilish(God knows why) to see it, but a baity ballad like ARUTW is a safer bet than that so called “song”.

    M
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    You guys act like “Shallow” was this very big hit that lost to a weaker song. Shallow spent a mere two weeks in the TOP10 when the voters voted. It got much bigger after the Grammy’s.

    Gaga haters love to rehash this same argument. We predicted Shallow mainly because it was the safest choice in the lineup, not because it was an undeniable hit. But the voters disagreed and wanted to vote something defined 2018 way more than Shallow.

    And let’s not undermine This Is America’s appeal. The voters clearly adored the song. It didn’t beat just Shallow, it beat 3 other massive #1 hits.

    reputationsgrammy
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    Isn’t it a bit ironic how the person saying this also the one insisting Lover will be a thing?

    Just to make sure, I read through all of my posts here and not once did I insist that Lover would be a thing. Like, literally not once. I made a few posts questioning why Lover’s fate was seemingly sealed before it’s release, and I responded to people answering my question with arguments about why I felt it was too soon to judge it’s chances. That’s it. I never insisted it was getting any nominations, I never insisted it would be a critical success. I explained that I had hope for the quality of the album based on what we know thematically so far, and expressed my belief that you can’t judge an album’s chances at the Grammy’s prior to it’s release.

    I was also never rude or bitchy in my responses, from what I can see? So don’t know why you felt the need to make this post in the first place.

    delusional swifties grab back! women grab back!

    MarinaBelo2
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    You guys act like “Shallow” was this very big hit that lost to a weaker song. Shallow spent a mere two weeks in the TOP10 when the voters voted. It got much bigger after the Grammy’s. Gaga haters love to rehash this same argument. We predicted Shallow mainly because it was the safest choice in the lineup, not because it was an undeniable hit. But the voters disagreed and wanted to vote something defined 2018 way more than Shallow. And let’s not undermine This Is America’s appeal. The voters clearly adored the song. It didn’t beat just Shallow, it beat 3 other massive #1 hits.

    Shallow = conservative ballad. The only song like that nominated was The Joke. Songs like that always win.

    This Is America = urban/hip hop song. 4 other nominees were just like it.  Songs like that never win.

    You can’t pretend that Shallow losing both categories wasn’t a bad sign when you, me and everyone else, all things considered, believed Shallow was a lock.

    reputationsgrammy
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    Dear delusional Taylor Swift stan, I know you have a hard-on for Taylor and all, but the singles from Lover have been forgotten. She will NOT have any impact in November on nominations day. Signed, Gucci

    Hi! I’m not sure where I was delusional? See my previous post, where I went into detail of how I never once claimed that Taylor would be getting a nomination, just that I don’t think we should completely write her (or anyone) off before the music is released.

    There are delusional Taylor stans who think she’s getting nominated for every award, just like there are delusional stans for every artist. I agree that Me! and YNTCD were horrible single rollouts (though it’s funny that Taylor’s flop singles peak higher than most artists biggest successes…. her power!). I think The Archer is one of the worst things she’s ever put out, production wise. But that leaves 14 songs that I have yet to hear that could be 14 of her best songs to date. Not saying they will be. Just saying they could be. And you can’t really argue that and call it delusional.

    delusional swifties grab back! women grab back!

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