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2020 Grammy Awards Predictions (Part 12)

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    Darren
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    #1203045179

    I didn’t say that being #1 is why Sucker is a bigger song.

    Sucker: 

    -Peak: #1

    -Weeks spent in Top 10: 22

    High Hopes:

    -Peak: #4

    -Weeks spent in Top 10: 15

    That doesn’t mean anything when you look at the numbers I posted.

    A #4 hit is absolutely bigger than a #1 hit if the sales and streaming numbers are better. (Pretty sure “High Hopes” was also a bigger radio hit.)

    Especially given the context – “High Hopes” worked its way up the charts to a #4 peak while “Sucker” started at #1 and never went that high again.

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    JasonLannister
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    Doesn’t matter which song got more streaming, that doesn’t change the fact High Hopes is FAR better than Sucker or Senorita.

    Moreover, the most successful song does not always win in Pop Duo and High Hopes fits perfectly alongside previous winners as Feel it Still, Stressed Out or Shallow.

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    Darren
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    Plus, if you want to bring up “Havana,” that actually makes a case for why “Señorita” isn’t winning. “Havana” was far and away the biggest hit in Pop Solo this year and lost; “Señorita” actually has strong competition in Pop DG, so what makes her chances any better this time?

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    John_White38
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    Well, Sucker just seems bigger and more buzzy right now. High Hopes is older and didn’t really stand out like Sucker did when it was released, mostly because of JB comeback and it’s supported by a successful album.

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    MarinaBelo2
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    It’s amazing how you guys keep treating Billie Eilish as if she was a big Grammy darling or a great artist just because her main competition is Ariana, disliked by most in here. Your bias is showing. Billie is a new artist, we don’t know how voters are going to react to her. They could give her AOTY or deny her even the Pop categories, specially now that Taylor is a contender. Chill. She’s no Adele or Sam Smith and even Adele did not sweep on her first year.

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    John_White38
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    It’s amazing how you guys keep treating Billie Eilish as if she was a big Grammy darling or a great artist just because her main competition is Ariana, disliked by most in here. Your bias is showing. Billie is a new artist, we don’t know how voters are going to react to her. They could give her AOTY or deny her even the Pop categories, specially now that Taylor is a contender. Chill. She’s no Adele or Sam Smith and even Adele did not sweep on her first year.

    Billie Eilish is NOT winning over Gaga/Taylor/Ariana. Mark this tweet.

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    Darren
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    High Hopes is older and didn’t really stand out like Sucker did when it was released, mostly because of JB comeback and it’s supported by a successful album.

    …so is “High Hopes”. Pray for the Wicked and Happiness Begins have sold essentially the same amount of copies (the Jonas Brothers have a marginal lead, 417k to 411k, and they were aided by ticket bundles), while PFTW leads Happiness Begins by a considerable amount in SPS.

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    Darren
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    It’s amazing how you guys keep treating Billie Eilish as if she was a big Grammy darling or a great artist just because her main competition is Ariana, disliked by most in here. Your bias is showing. Billie is a new artist, we don’t know how voters are going to react to her. They could give her AOTY or deny her even the Pop categories, specially now that Taylor is a contender. Chill. She’s no Adele or Sam Smith and even Adele did not sweep on her first year.

    Billie has had a much bigger first year than Adele did, so that’s your first mistake.

    Yes, Billie is a new artist, but we know that the Grammys tend to prefer singer-songwriter type artists and alternative/alternative-ish artists over pop divas like Ariana. It’s just a matter of looking at history to see who has the edge.

    And that’s not even getting into the fact that Billie has had a bigger year commercially than Ariana.

    And it’s insane to suggest that she may not be nominated in either Pop Solo Performance or Pop Album. Both are happening, and she’s competitive to win in both categories.

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    MarinaBelo2
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    Having the biggest hit doesn’t really matter on Pop Duo/Group.

    2012 Moves Like Jagger lost.

    2014 Just Give Me a Reason lost.

    2015 Dark Horse/Fancy lost.

    2017 Work/Cheap Thrills lost.

    2018 Despacito lost.

    2019 Girls Like You lost.

    Only Somebody That I Used to Know and Uptown Funk won. And they were both ROTY winners. And I’m 100% sure UF wouldn’t have won if Bruno Mars and Mark Ronson weren’t behind it. The artist is always a factor.

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    Darren
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    Having the biggest hit doesn’t really matter on Pop Duo/Group.

    2012 Moves Like Jagger lost.

    2014 Just Give Me a Reason lost.

    2015 Dark Horse/Fancy lost.

    2017 Work/Cheap Thrills lost.

    2018 Despacito lost.

    2019 Girls Like You lost.

    Only Somebody That I Used to Know and Uptown Funk won. And they were both ROTY winners. And I’m 100% sure UF wouldn’t have won if Bruno Mars and Mark Ronson weren’t behind it. The artist is always a factor.

    The debate is unnecessary because the biggest hit in the running for Pop Duo/Group (“Sunflower”) is not winning.

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    Boz
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    Plus, if you want to bring up “Havana,” that actually makes a case for why “Señorita” isn’t winning. “Havana” was far and away the biggest hit in Pop Solo this year and lost; “Señorita” actually has strong competition in Pop DG, so what makes her chances any better this time?

    Well, peaking around this time certainly helps.

    But you’re right. Señorita isn’t my main bet, Sucker is.

    I wouldn’t call Maroon 5 or Train Grammy darlings.

    Sure, but they at least *had* a Grammy prior to their wins with live versions. Maroon 5 had just won BNA and were on voter’s radar. This Love was also a bigger hit than High Hopes (#4 on the YE aggregate despite a #5 peak). It was also the biggest hit nominated, which definitely helps.

    Train had 4 rock noms, 2 wins, SOTY & ROTY noms, and was also far and away the biggest song there: Misery peaked at #14, The Only Exception peaked at #24, that Sade song wasn’t even a hit, and the other song was the Regionals Version of Don’t Stop Believin’ by Glee…

    FYC: Joji – Best New Artist
    Nectar – Album of The Year, Best Alternative Album
    Run – ROTY, SOTY, Rock Song, Rock Performance
    Gimme Love - Best Music Video

    FYC: Ariana Grande
    Rain On Me: ROTY, Pop Duo/Group Performance
    Imagine - SOTY, Pop Solo Performance
    Nobody (w/ Chaka Khan) - Best Trad R&B Perf.

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    MarinaBelo2
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    Billie has had a much bigger first year than Adele did, so that’s your first mistake. Yes, Billie is a new artist, but we know that the Grammys tend to prefer singer-songwriter type artists and alternative/alternative-ish artists over pop divas like Ariana. It’s just a matter of looking at history to see who has the edge. And that’s not even getting into the fact that Billie has had a bigger year commercially than Ariana. And it’s insane to suggest that she may not be nominated in either Pop Solo Performance or Pop Album. Both are happening, and she’s competitive to win in both categories.

    The only “huge albums” we have this cycle are ASIB and Lover. You guys are overestimating Billie too much when it’s crystal clear that in a normal year, she would struggle to win anything but BNA. I understand she has no realistic competition, but I really don’t buy Grammy voters falling in love with a 17 year old girl with weird outfits and weird songs like you always imply, that’s just as relevant to Billie as being a singer-songwriter. Grammys never liked weird stuff, quite the opposite, so why are you so adamant about Billie sweeping? It feels like wishful thinking because you all like her.

    I’m not saying she’s losing everything or that she’s not sweeping, I wouldn’t even be surprised because her competition is even weaker. I just don’t see a possible Billie sweep as a sign of support but as lack of support for the other contenders.

     

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    Darren
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    The only “huge albums” we have this cycle are ASIB and Lover.

    That’s literally not true, though. Thank U, Next was huge even if it’s waned a bit by now, and Billie’s album has been a powerhouse all year with no signs of slowing down. All Lover has right now is a big first week – if it performs at all similarly to Reputation, it’s not going to have longevity, and it hasn’t even produced a big hit single yet.

    Khalid and Lizzo have also delivered albums that have posted strong and consistent numbers.

    Are you even paying attention to the musical landscape in 2019? Because anyone who was would not make such a foolish and patently wrong statement.

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    abelfenty
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    Grammys never liked weird stuff, quite the opposite

    Gaga was literally showered in nominations during The Fame / The Fame Monster eras.

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    John_White38
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    Billie is also not a songwriter like Taylor Swift or Ed Sheeran. Ocean Eyes, When The Party’s Over and My Strange Addiction are completely written by Finneas, so you could imagine he probably writes majority of her songs, Billie is also never credited as a producer.

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