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2020 Grammy Predictions (Part 15)

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    Darren
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    #1203092430

    Lil Nas X is getting into BNA. He’ll have 2 top 5 hits, both part of a succesful EP, and one of those is the biggest hit of the year.

    Sounds just like Kesha in 2010

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    6 GOD
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    #1203092439

    Honey, Lil Nas X is gonna be nominated in 3/4 of the GF. You hate to see it.

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    reputationsgrammy
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    #1203092441

    Sounds just like Kesha in 2010

    Kesha had a MUCHHHHHH different image in 2010 than Lil Nas X in 2019. Plus, back then a woman owning her sexuality like Kesha did was very much looked down upon. Really weird comparison.

    delusional swifties grab back! women grab back!

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    Boz
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    #1203092448

    Ke$ha’s image was a foul-mouthed drunk party girl with a bunch of autotune making club songs. Lil Nas X is way more PG and cut(no pun intended)-clean. That comparison is not valid.

    Besides, for every Kesha you have a Lil Uzi Vert. Some acts miss, some don’t. I’m leaning towards the latter for Lil Nas X.

    FYC: Joji – Best New Artist
    Nectar – Album of The Year, Best Alternative Album
    Run – ROTY, SOTY, Rock Song, Rock Performance
    Gimme Love - Best Music Video

    FYC: Ariana Grande
    Rain On Me: ROTY, Pop Duo/Group Performance
    Imagine - SOTY, Pop Solo Performance
    Nobody (w/ Chaka Khan) - Best Trad R&B Perf.

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    Darren
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    #1203092459

    Kesha had a MUCHHHHHH different image in 2010 than Lil Nas X in 2019. Plus, back then a woman owning her sexuality like Kesha did was very much looked down upon. Really weird comparison.

    First of all, I don’t know why you’re talking about 2010 like it was the 1800s. Lady Gaga, Katy Perry, and Rihanna all had very sex-driven images and they were all nominated in the general field that year.

    Secondly, Lil Nas X is really not that different from Kesha at all. In fact, he’s not even having half of the year that Kesha did. Kesha not only had the biggest hit of the year and a distinct image/personality (since you guys keep claiming that works in Nas X’s favor), she had one of the top-selling albums of that year and at least 3 other big hit singles (all much bigger than “Panini”) before the Grammy nominations came out that year.

    Just as the Grammys didn’t take her seriously, they’re not going to take him seriously.

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    Darren
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    #1203092470

    Honey, Lil Nas X is gonna be nominated in 3/4 of the GF. You hate to see it.

    I’m assuming you’re predicting “Old Town Road” in SONG OF THE YEAR with that 3/4? Lol.

    Record of the Year is the only category he even remotely has a shot at. The other three are SO not happening.

    You all are blinded by Billboard numbers to the point of fantasy.

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    reputationsgrammy
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    #1203092479

    Are you forgetting that Old Town Road literally broke the record for longest running #1 of all time? The fact that Panini is now on track to become his second mainstream hit is huge for his BNA chances. To say he won’t win is fine, but saying that he won’t get a nomination is absolutely completely absurd.

    delusional swifties grab back! women grab back!

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    reputationsgrammy
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    #1203092487

    You all are blinded by Billboard numbers to the point of fantasy.

    I don’t know if you’ve said it before, but I’m curious to know why you’re so convinced that Lil Nas won’t show up at all. Is it just an out there prediction so that if it somehow comes true, you can say you’re the only one who predicted it?

    delusional swifties grab back! women grab back!

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    abelfenty
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    #1203092493

    Sounds just like Kesha in 2010

    Kesha was completely ignored in every category so I don’t think they’re really comparable. (There’s no way Lil Nas is getting 0 nominations).

    And like Boz said, Kesha’s whole persona was based on a drunk, crackhead party girl.

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    Darren
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    #1203092511

    Are you forgetting that Old Town Road literally broke the record for longest running #1 of all time? The fact that Panini is now on track to become his second mainstream hit is huge for his BNA chances. To say he won’t win is fine, but saying that he won’t get a nomination is absolutely completely absurd.

    I don’t think the “longest running #1” stat matters as much as a lot of you think it does. Commercial success helps hugely with people’s Grammy chances, but it’s far from the end-all-be-all. I pointed out months ago that several songs that had previously broken this record did not get nominated in Record/Song of the Year (and this was pre-committee, meaning the top 5 vote-getters were the nominees), but was conveniently ignored.

    I’ve been following the Grammys long enough to see artists who had huge breakthrough years and huge hits, sometimes multiple, get passed over in Best New Artist. The common theme with a lot of these artists? Their careers seemed to be defined by one massive hit, and they didn’t seem destined for long-term success. Even artists like Gotye and Lorde who won other general field categories were the victims of this. Lil Nas X absolutely falls into this same category. He’s never going to be remembered for anything other than that hokey cowboy song. In fact, no one will even be thinking about him 2 years from now. That’s exactly the kind of artist the Grammys tend to avoid nominating, and that is why I’m not predicting him for Best New Artist.

    So if you think that makes me delusional, I don’t really care.

    I don’t know if you’ve said it before, but I’m curious to know why you’re so convinced that Lil Nas won’t show up at all. Is it just an out there prediction so that if it somehow comes true, you can say you’re the only one who predicted it?

    I don’t go out of my way to have different predictions than everyone else, ever. I just think it seems so obvious that Lil Nas X isn’t going to be a big factor in the general field categories that I’m legitimately questioning everyone else’s judgment, the way everyone else is questioning mine for not predicting him.

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    Boz
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    #1203092515

    The only correlation between Lil Nas X and Kesha is that they were big new artists, which is a correlation you can make about a lot of people. What about Iggy Azalea? Even more panned, had a bunch of controversy surrounding her, yet got 4 noms.

    FYC: Joji – Best New Artist
    Nectar – Album of The Year, Best Alternative Album
    Run – ROTY, SOTY, Rock Song, Rock Performance
    Gimme Love - Best Music Video

    FYC: Ariana Grande
    Rain On Me: ROTY, Pop Duo/Group Performance
    Imagine - SOTY, Pop Solo Performance
    Nobody (w/ Chaka Khan) - Best Trad R&B Perf.

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    Darren
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    #1203092520

    Kesha was completely ignored in every category so I don’t think they’re really comparable. (There’s no way Lil Nas is getting 0 nominations).

    I’m not predicting him to get no nominations at all (I think he’ll get in Best Music Video and maybe a genre category), but it’s not far-fetched to think that could be his fate.

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    PoweR
    Joined:
    Sep 27th, 2011
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    #1203092524

    The only correlation between Lil Nas X and Kesha is that they were big new artists, which is a correlation you can make about a lot of people. What about Iggy Azalea? Even more panned, had a bunch of controversy surrounding her, yet got 4 noms.

    Correct. What makes Iggy so special compared to someone like Lil Nas X?

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    Darren
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    #1203092531

    The biggest thing with Lil Nas X is that I simply don’t see a community of musicians, who have devoted their lives to their craft, rallying around a kid who bought a trap beat for $30 on the internet, made a novelty song in his basement, and accidentally ended up with the biggest song in the world. It’s a story for the ages, but I don’t think it’s one that Grammy voters will take seriously.

    Maybe I’m right. Maybe I’m wrong.

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    reputationsgrammy
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    #1203092534

    What about Iggy Azalea? Even more panned, had a bunch of controversy surrounding her, yet got 4 noms.

    THIS seems like a much more relevant comparison. Was anyone expecting Iggy to go onto greater successes than Fancy? I would say her career was very much defined by that hit, to this day.

    delusional swifties grab back! women grab back!

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