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December 31, 2019 at 9:03 am #1203254953
Billie is absolutely the frontrunner for AOTY, you’re kidding yourself if you say otherwise.
You are so annoying, lol. The main argument is that she is SPLITTING THE VOTES. Let’s say realistically, she’s getting votes from Pop and Alternative.
Pop: We have Ariana (last year won against 2x AOTY winner in the Pop Field), Lizzo (Truth Hurts is a big hit, kinda relevant at the moment of voting), Lil Nas X (the biggest song ever) and Lana Del Rey (some pop voters could go for her). The last two are not a big threat, because both missed Pop Vocal nomination. But still could take some votes.
Alternative: Wampire Weekend are getting 85% of the votes. That is obvious. Then Bon Iver. Only then Billie and Lana.
To take AOTY, there should be no split. If there is, the album should bend more than 2 genres. Simple like that.December 31, 2019 at 9:12 am #1203254957
Stop trying to disregard Billie as a front runner for AOTY, she clearly is. She outsold many of them, beat almost all of them (except Lana’s) on year End Lists, as well as is beloved by many in the music industry. And it’s a statement of the year that we had; I hadn’t seen a year with many new and fresh artists on the music scene since maybe since Britney and Christina. But besides the point there have been new artists perse that have done well in the public eye. Sam Smith, while not winning AOTY, won all the other general field awards that year. Taylor Swift won album of the year at the beginning of their career. So I really don’t understand why Billie wouldn’t win any general field awards excluding BNA.
Barnacles BroDecember 31, 2019 at 9:14 am #1203254964
You are so annoying, lol.
To each their own. For what it’s worth, I think all the Ariana fans on here claiming she’s either winning AOTY or is a dark horse or has some kind of chance are annoying, because not a bit of that is true.
The claim that “85%” of the “alternative vote” is going to Vampire Weekend was pulled straight out of your ass. How is that obvious?
And we’ve been through this before that just because vote-splitting CAN happen doesn’t mean it WILL. Case in point: “This Is America” winning Record of the Year last year when it was one of 5 rap songs in the lineup.
Some people also thought Kacey Musgraves and Brandi Carlile would split votes last year, but that wasn’t the case.December 31, 2019 at 9:44 am #1203255012
Billie is clearly the frontrunner in AOTY. She’s beatable but anyone who is trying to say she’s not the frontrunner (by a mile) is deluded.December 31, 2019 at 10:01 am #1203255047
In case anyone cares, these are the sales/equivalent sales of the ROTY/SOTY nominees:
Old Town Road – 8.5 million
Sunflower – 7.5 million
Bad Guy – 4.6 million
7 Rings – 4.6 million
Truth Hurts – 4.4 million
Talk – 3.5 million
Hard Place – 296,000
Hey, Ma – 155,000
Bad Guy – 4.6 million
Truth Hurts – 4.4 million
Someone You Loved – 2.9 million
Always Remember Us This Way – 1.6 million
Lover – 1.2 million
Hard Place – 296,000
Norman Fucking Rockwell – 145,000
Bring My Flowers Now – 5,000December 31, 2019 at 10:11 am #1203255067
Just because songs/albums come from the same genre doesn’t mean that they will split votes. If two are similar enough song- and success-wise, then sure, you could make a case for it. Doesn’t mean that pop voters will ONLY vote for thank u, next, or only rap voters will vote for 7 because it’s the closest to resembling a rap album this year.December 31, 2019 at 10:26 am #1203255095
Honey, I will be laughing my ass off on January 26th when Ariana Grande goes home empty-handed. That will finally shut her delusional ass stans up.December 31, 2019 at 10:54 am #1203255155
Upsets tend to happen most in AOTY, but it usually goes to an album that appeals to instrumentalists, such as a rock or jazz album. TUN is neither of those. If Ari can upset in Pop Album before AOTY is announced, then I’ll entertain the possibility of her upsetting.
Billie is the frontrunner. If she loses, it’ll prove that there is a true bias for debut albums and young artists in general. I still have a feeling she’s going to slip up in a few categories just like Sam Smith did.December 31, 2019 at 11:53 am #1203255223
There is no reason why Ariana would have ”no chance”. Her album was a massive success, she has huge pop voter support behind her, TUN was highly acclaimed (moreso than WWAFA,WDWG?) and she is an established force in pop music and not a debut act. Saying that she has zero chances is peak delusion, period, just like saying she will sweep.December 31, 2019 at 12:06 pm #1203255232
To be very honest, I hardly ever see any Ariana stans here or anywhere convinced that she’s winning AOTY. Everyone is expecting Billie to win big at this point, specially here.
In fact, many Gold Derby forum users seem to have a hate-boner for her and keep trying to push the narrative that “Ariana stans delusionally believe their fave is winning AOTY or 5/5ing”. I’m not saying no names specifically, but the fanbases who overestimate the power of their faves were predicting like 6-7 nods for them and failed to make it to ROTY and/or AOTY.
If anyone’s getting disappointed or getting their mouths shut, it’s the people here, of course only IF Ariana wins AOTY. Is it going to happen? Probably not. But be careful with what you openly don’t wish for. If Ariana wins AOTY, the meltdowns and collapses here are going to be hilarious!December 31, 2019 at 12:12 pm #1203255246
Billie’s album was clearly the biggest of the year. It had one of the biggest hits of the year which had insane longevity along with the album. She has a narrative that the voters will probably like (extremely young and solely her and her brother wrote/produced the album) And if that wasn’t enough, her massive campaigning (which absolutely has an effect) made up any chance she didn’t have to win AOTY. She’s at the top of voters minds. There’s no doubt in my mind that she’s nearly a lock.
Lizzo and Ariana are probably tied for runner up. Both have the success, acclaim, and narrative too, but much less so than Billie and didn’t campaign. Especially Ariana has less of a chance with her domination being late 2018/early 2019.
Fingers crossed that Lana’s a dark horse though…December 31, 2019 at 12:16 pm #1203255267
To be very honest, I hardly ever see any Ariana stans here or anywhere convinced that she’s winning AOTY. Everyone is expecting Billie to win big at this point, specially here. In fact, many Gold Derby forum users seem to have a hate-boner for her and keep trying to push the narrative that “Ariana stans delusionally believe their fave is winning AOTY or 5/5ing”. I’m not saying no names specifically, but the fanbases who overestimate the power of their faves were predicting like 6-7 nods for them and failed to make it to ROTY and/or AOTY. If anyone’s getting disappointed or getting their mouths shut, it’s the people here, of course only IF Ariana wins AOTY. Is it going to happen? Probably not. But be careful with what you openly don’t wish for. If Ariana wins AOTY, the meltdowns and collapses here are going to be hilarious!
We’ve all seen it. Just because you don’t doesn’t mean it doesn’t happen.
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