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2020 Grammys: Winner predictions

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  • Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)
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    #1203193556

    Album of The Year: When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?
    Record of the Year: Bad Guy or Truth Hurts
    Song of the Year: Old Town Road
    Best New Artist: Billie Eilish

    Pop Solo: Bad Guy
    Pop Vocal Album: thank u, next
    Pop Duo/Group: Boyfriend
    Traditional Pop Vocal Album: Si

    Best Rap Album: IGOR
    Best Rap Song: a lot
    Best Rap Performance: Racks in the Middle
    Best Rap/Sung Performance: Higher

    Best Rock Song: This Land
    Best Rock Performance: This Land
    Best Rock Album: In the End
    Best Alternative Music Album: Father of the Bride

    James Otto Sweet Heart
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    #1203193563

    Tanya Tucker scored four nominations. May she clean house.

    God bless you and the Texas Tornado always!!!

    Holly (a fan of her since 1991)

    Go here to check out my most favorite singer James Otto!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiU81KIRZ_Q

    ayanami
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    #1203193590

    My AOTY thoughts:

    – No one is voting for Lil Nas X in this category. Any support for him will be concentrated towards the song categories.

    – I love H.E.R. being our deserved perennial dark horse contender. Her, Lana and Ariana make this category top notch despite Lil Nas X. However, I think we can all sense H.E.R.’s appearance in GF this year is primarily backed by blue ribbon support rather than anything else. I Used to Know Her missed a genre album nomination. Hard Place missed a BPSP nom. I can’t imagine H.E.R. winning this category without that strong genre support. Especially with Lizzo to potentially split votes with.

    – Lizzo and Billie are the newcomers who have a shot at winning AOTY. Lizzo can be compared to Lauryn Hill. Billie to Alanis. They both have support across the board in GF and genre categories. However, I would not bet on them winning simply because it’s so RARE for a BNA contender to win AOTY. See: Sam Smith, fun., Kendrick Lamar. Between Lizzo and Billie, Billie is likeliest to overcome the BNA bias and win AOTY. When We All Fall Asleep was nominated for Best Engineered Album and Finneas for POTY. Billie is my #3 pick to win AOTY.

    – Lana Del Rey is not happening. Like H.E.R., Lana is a blue ribbon pick. Lana can be compared to Lorde and Janelle Monae. Without signs of pop genre support, Lana seems unlikely to take this.

    – Bon Iver and Vampire Weekend could be this year’s indie pick to win AOTY. Between the two, I would bet on Bon Iver. They are BNA winners, total of 2 Grammys won, previous ROTY/SOTY nominees, and they were additionally nominated for ROTY this year. That shows strong Grammy history much like Kacey last year who had won a handful of Grammys prior to Golden Hour. Bon Iver is my #2 pick to win AOTY.

    – If Bon Iver splits the indie votes with Lana and Vampire Weekend, Ariana would just as easily split with Billie and Lizzo. Lizzo could also split with H.E.R. As for Lil Nas X, how could there be vote splitting when you have no votes to split to begin with. Unfortunately, with 8 nominees, vote splitting is more likely due to more contenders to represent each genre. We have little history to examine how vote splitting occurs in an expanded field. We were lucky last year the top contender to win was the sole nominee from her genre. That is not the case this year. Therefore I would not regard vote splitting as an important factor.

    – Ariana was snubbed in SOTY by the Blue Ribbon in favour for Taylor, Gaga and Lewis Capaldi. However, Ariana’s strong showing in the pop categories could signal support for her to win AOTY. Ed Sheeran in this position back in 2017 was blocked for that reason. Unlike Taylor, Bruno and Adele, Ariana has strong critical support to show for (86 on metacritic!), which gives her an advantage over her predecessors. Call me biased, but Ariana is my #1 pick to win AOTY.

    ayanami
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    #1203193660
    1. Thank you, next – Ariana Grande
    2. i,i – Bon Iver
    3. When We All Fall Asleep – Billie Eilish
    4. Cuz I Love You – Lizzo
    5. Father of the Bride – Vampire Weekend
    6. I Used to Know Her – H.E.R.
    7. Norman F***ing Rockwell – Lana Del Rey
    8. 7 – Lil Nas X
    Boz
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    #1203193672

    I can see an Ariana victory, but I have her as #2 behind Billie.

    The reason of this being that I think Billie will get votes from the Rock and Alternative as well as Pop. Meanwhile, Ariana’s niche is in Pop. Of course, an album can win AOTY based on pop voters alone (and, of course, Ariana may attract voters from other genres, mainly Rap & R&B), but albums with broader appeal usually win. And, that Eng Album nom is also a huge plus for Billie. That said, Ariana has major support from pop voters, and this isn’t the first time her songs get in over bigger/more “traditional” picks. And, she has the advantage of being a perfect fit to win: huge era, critical acclaim, a compelling narrative, and most importantly, being an established artist, which Billie and Lizzo aren’t.

    I think Lana, Vamp Weekend, and Bon Iver were all nominated to split votes with each other; they want one of the big stars to win. (Or, they also could’ve nominated them to split with Billie and let Lizzo win, which is a possibility – that said Billie is too big to split that many votes with them). H.E.R and Lil Nas X’s noms lead me to believe that they might be there to take some votes away from Lizzo and let Billie and Ariana fight it off in AOTY; of course though, Lizzo (as Billie) is too big.

    I’m going for Billie in AOTY with Ariana as a runner-up and Lizzo as my third pick, while Ariana wins Pop Vocal over Billie.

    Sheeow
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    #1203193688

    Vote splitting is a weak argument I think, since This Is America won SOTY/ROTY last year while competing against three other rap songs.

    Boz
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    #1203193701

    Vote splitting is a weak argument I think, since This Is America won SOTY/ROTY last year while competing against three other rap songs.

    This Is America was a heavily charged political song that was clearly favoured in the rap field. It was never going to split with a Post Malone song.

    However, both Bon Iver and Vampire Weekend have similar support. And Lizzo and H.E.R are both very liked this year. Vote-splitting happens when you have two comparable artists, not when you have a clear frontrunner; that’s why I think Billie can win despite being nominated along 3 other alternative acts.

    Mr Brightside
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    #1203193713

    I can see an Ariana victory, but I have her as #2 behind Billie. The reason of this being that I think Billie will get votes from the Rock and Alternative as well as Pop. Meanwhile, Ariana’s niche is in Pop. Of course, an album can win AOTY based on pop voters alone (and, of course, Ariana may attract voters from other genres, mainly Rap & R&B), but albums with broader appeal usually win. And, that Eng Album nom is also a huge plus for Billie. That said, Ariana has major support from pop voters, and this isn’t the first time her songs get in over bigger/more “traditional” picks. And, she has the advantage of being a perfect fit to win: huge era, critical acclaim, a compelling narrative, and most importantly, being an established artist, which Billie and Lizzo aren’t. I think Lana, Vamp Weekend, and Bon Iver were all nominated to split votes with each other; they want one of the big stars to win. (Or, they also could’ve nominated them to split with Billie and let Lizzo win, which is a possibility – that said Billie is too big to split that many votes with them). H.E.R and Lil Nas X’s noms lead me to believe that they might be there to take some votes away from Lizzo and let Billie and Ariana fight it off in AOTY; of course though, Lizzo (as Billie) is too big. I’m going for Billie in AOTY with Ariana as a runner-up and Lizzo as my third pick, while Ariana wins Pop Vocal over Billie.

    I don’t think they talked about vote splitting as much you think. I think Bon Iver was put there to split with Vampire Weekend and that is all. Everyone else was selected for other reasons. (eg. big year, acclaim, etc)

    Mr Brightside
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    #1203193725

    HER didn’t necessarily “miss” R&B album. R&B has a committee who may have kept her out for various reasons (eg. just won last year) She could have had enough votes and support. The committees are not the same as voters.

    Babygirl
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    #1203193795

    Artists like Steely Dan, Norah Jones, Ray Charles, Beck, Daft Punk and Bruno Mars all won Engineering then AOTY, so that makes me more confident on predicting Billie winning AOTY.

    JDM
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    #1203193830

    Get real! Ariana Grande is NOT winning Album of the Year and Best Pop Duo/Group Performance. Pure delusion. Lil Nas X will NOT go home empty-handed. He’ll easily win Best Music Video.

     

    Cellophane is definitely winning but ok

    caleidoscopio
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    #1203193852

    my top 3 for AOTY is currently Billie, Ariana and Vampire Weekend.

    Lil Nas X: lol

    H.E.R. was chosen to steal votes from Lizzo.

    Bon Iver was chosen to steal votes from Vampire Weekend, albeit I believe VW could win for the most absurd reason: the Musicares Person of the Year is Aerosmith. Last year, Dolly won the award and the AOTY winner was a Country singer. But that’s just coincidental and makes no sense at all.

    Billie’s album was nominated in the engineering category, something that happens to multiple AOTY winners.

    What makes me believe Ariana could win: she’s the only “popstar” in the lineup and the only act who was nominated for all mainstream Pop categories. Billie didn’t have a Duo/Group submission, but Ariana managed to snatch a nomination with a bad, poor performing song in a lineup filled with smash hits. I believe Ariana has a lot of support from Pop voters. And she could’ve possibly been snubbed from SOTY on purpose so she wouldn’t sweep the GF or something. I see Ariana either going home almost empty handed or with a 5/5. The fact that her possible competition in voting (Gaga and Taylor) was snubbed from AOTY. I think the BRP knew what they were doing when they put Ariana alone in AOTY & ROTY and Gaga & Taylor in SOTY.

    I am not sure just yet, because nominations were announced today, but I strongly believe one of those 3 are winning AOTY.

    All I know is that Lil Nas X is losing AOTY. But water is wet, isn’t it?

    PoweR
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    Sep 27th, 2011
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    #1203193889

    It’ll probably be Lizzo vs. Billie Eilish in all categories they’re nominate for together.

    I think Billie sweeping would not surprise me because it would be typical of the Grammys. However, I feel like the consensus in most areas have been split between both Lizzo and Billie to allow one to dominate completely over the other.

    I think “Truth Hurts” will edge out “Bad Guy” in all categories, but Billie could take BNA and AOTY instead.

    Babygirl
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    Sep 12th, 2018
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    #1203193978

    I think Bad Guy edges out Truth Hurts in ROTY and Pop Solo.

    M
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    #1203194038

    My predictions for now:

    1. Album of the Year: Father of the Bride

    2. Record of the Year: Old Town Road

    3. Song of the Year: Bring My Flowers Now

    4. Best New Artist: Billie Eilish

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