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2021/2022 Best New Artist Predictions

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    lipabridgerstwigs
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    #1204239093

    I’m thinking with the changes.

    Julien Baker
    Gabby Barrett
    Celeste
    Finneas
    Conan Gray
    Ava Max
    Olivia Rodrigo
    Summer Walker (she can submit herself still right?)

    I think the biggest change with no panel here is that Conan and Gabby are in. Gabby especially. I was debating Tenille Arts but I don’t know if country is a big enough block to get her and Gabby in. She isn’t really a big name. Blackpink could maybe sneak in since they’re pretty well known and early on the ballot but I doubt it. Also I think Olivia will win even if Finneas gets in. I don’t think anyone cares about Finneas’ solo stuff.
    I’m really hoping for Arlo to pull through still. However the fact that she’s not well known in the states and low on the ballot has me nervous for her.

    Carey Mulligan will get her revenge on May 16 at the MTV Movie & TV awards

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    Jay
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    #1204239101

    I can’t see Finneas happening in BNA unless he releases another EP/album. He may be loved by the academy but everything he’s ever won has something to do with Billie. His own music is unknown to the academy at this point, and he will need to achieve either mainstream success or critical acclaim to make the cut.

    FYC | Best music of 2021 so far:
    Arlo Parks - Collapsed In Sunbeams

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    SWV
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    #1204239136

    Get real!  Conan Gray is NOT happening in Best New Artist.  He is a flop.

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    Alina Mihaela
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    #1204239755

    I’d be ridiculous at this point for Blackpink to get a nomination in best NEW artist. They’ve tried for two years and it didn’t work. Clearly the academy didn’t think they should be there. By the time the final voting happens they would have been actively promoting in the US for 3 years . That’s not a new artist when there are others who became known and launched in the last year or so.

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    Red
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    #1204239870

    I’d be ridiculous at this point for Blackpink to get a nomination in best NEW artist. They’ve tried for two years and it didn’t work. Clearly the academy didn’t think they should be there. By the time the final voting happens they would have been actively promoting in the US for 3 years . That’s not a new artist when there are others who became known and launched in the last year or so.

    There’s no committee to block kpop acts now, Blackpink are high on the ballot and are more well known than a lot of the potential nominees, they have a shot if they campaign.

     

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    nxddyfs
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    #1204242091

    I’d be ridiculous at this point for Blackpink to get a nomination in best NEW artist. They’ve tried for two years and it didn’t work. Clearly the academy didn’t think they should be there. By the time the final voting happens they would have been actively promoting in the US for 3 years . That’s not a new artist when there are others who became known and launched in the last year or so.

    I wouldn’t say is ridiculous. You do have a point that the panel did not consider them for nomination even though 2020 was their biggest year in the US with a top 3 album during 1st round voting and performances left and right. We are not even sure if they made it to the top 20. However, if this year they campaign the right way, they could sneak in by straight peer-to-peer vote (unless voters really don’t vibe with them). We will need to wait and see. they haven’t released anything yet, and remember that voters are not as friendly in nominating non-english acts, especially kpop acts.

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    nxddyfs
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    #1204242096

    There’s no committee to block kpop acts now, Blackpink are high on the ballot and are more well known than a lot of the potential nominees, they have a shot if they campaign.

    do we even know if they were blocked…

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    Boz
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    #1204242124

    IDK if I see Blackpink being popular among the Academy. At least BTS had a hit and they had a very heavy campaign.

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    scientifically
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    #1204242191

    The standard regarding Kpop groups is very different in comparison to other genres. They need to be undeniable for the voters to consider them seriously because Kpop isn’t taken seriously in the first place

    So far (in my opinion), Blackpink has potential, but they haven’t gotten there yet. I feel like they depend too much on other bigger names to be part of the conversation. Give them some time to make appearances and win on smaller US award shows, have a steadier hit on their own and make a name for themselves as musicians, not models . . . then we can talk about Grammys

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    400lux
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    #1204242295

    It feels like they’ve been trying to make Blackpink happen for years. I can’t see them being nominated without a hit and i doubt their ability to get a hit on their own. They’ve been singing mostly in english for a while and collabing with superstars – still nothing.  Also, their fandom isn’t big enough to help them chart high, even if only for a weeek. But we shall see what are their plans for this year.

     

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    Kai
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    #1204242437

    BTS had been performing on American award shows (like AMAs and BBMAs) for years, and even accepting being relegated to presenters or Lil Nas X cameos at the Grammys. I don’t like them at all, but they definitely put in the work to establish themselves to the American audience, and industry. So it all cumulated perfectly to getting their first nomination with their first English song.

    BLACKPINK, on the other hand, do maybe 1 or 2 late night talk show performances, then call it a day. The industry at large has no idea who they are. They will have zero clout to score a BNA nomination.

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    SWV
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    #1204242507

    Blackpink + Best New Artist nomination = NOT happening

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    Red
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    #1204242556

    do we even know if they were blocked…

    No but it’s likely that the committee would’ve blocked them for one of those niche artists they like, I do agree about Blackpink needing heavy campaign to get a nom.

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    24fanatic
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    #1204242567

    At this point (based on a popular vote by all members of the Recording Academy):

    Gabby Barrett

    – 2 Country #1 hits + both Top 40

    Olivia Rodrigo

    – #1 hit, 2nd Top 10 hit

    Saweetie

    – Multiple Top 40 hits

    Celeste

    – Oscar nominated soul singer

    The Kid KAROI

    – Latest hit will reach Top 10 next week

    Tate McRae

    – Breakout pop singer but might need 2nd hit to make it

    Arlo Parks

    – UK R&B critically acclaimed artist, BRIT Award nominee

    Rina Sawayama

    – New Elton John duet, visibility increasing, should have been nom’d last year

    Maybes:

    Jimmie Allen

    – 1st major Black Country male since Darius Rucker and has LOTS of country music industry support

    Summer Walker

    – If she releases new material could be considered since snubbed last year.

    Polo G

    – #1 hit carried by streaming, but I question whether enough voters listen or know who this is.

    I don’t see the likes of Ava Max or Conan Gray happening without recent major (enough) success.

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    nxddyfs
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    #1204242593

    if the lineup stays like that then Gabby Barrett will be Olivia’s main threat. however i just read here that Finneas is eligible (which is bs but whatever). in that case then it’s over for both bc the academy does like Finneas

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