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2021 Grammy Awards Predictions (Part 3)

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    JennyLewisFan
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    #1203377925

    I’m not doubting its chances; I just don’t think it’s undeniable to the point where it gets in no matter what, at this point in the year. Obviously it’s an early contender for ROTY and I never said otherwise.

    What’s obvious about “The Box” for now is its Rap/Sung nomination (and possible win).

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    M
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    Anyway, what’s happening with “Physical”? I find it to be much superior to “Don’t Start Now”.

    Dua seems like she can’t push a second single right now, since Don’t Start Now is having a radio peak. But it sucks because “Physical” would’ve probably found better success in streaming.

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    "How You Doin'"
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    Honey, “The Box” will easily scoop up a Best Rap Song (in addition to ROTY) nomination too.

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    JJS5056
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    Are you seriously using Billboard chart positions as hints to Grammy success? Like, seriously? I don’t hate Dua. In fact, I loved her when she broke out and felt her Grammy wins were deserving. But this song, “Don’t Start Now,” is not bad, it’s not just worthy of Grammy gold. It’s basic Brit-pop imo. Regarding your Billboard thing, “Electricity,” one of Dua’s wins, peaked at #62 on the US charts, so, where’s your point? I know Billboard tends to be a favorable indicator of Grammy success, especially in the case of pop music (case in point “Señorita”), but it’s not always the case. I’m still leaving her out for now until the Grammy deadline is hit and it’s obvious she’ll still be a frontrunner (which will be completely sad). Again, no hate for Dua, just not impressed with her new stuff.

    Amen. Reading this forum leading up to the 2020 ceremony’s nominations last year was super confusing; as a casual follower of the Grammys, I was shocked at how Billboard success was being used as a prerequisite to consideration. I mean, I was super young when it happened, but Norah Jones’ near-sweep blew me away at the time — where was she on Billboard that year? Why has an artist like Katy Perry never even been given a single win? How do you explain Gaga and Beyonce having 1 GF win between them, while The Suburbs, Mumford & Sons, and Beck all collected AOTY awards last decade?

    Billboard already gives out awards; as one of the few ways we have to look at how music is being received by the GP, should charts be used when making predictions and assessing the impact of songs/artists? Sure. But, otherwise, just use year-end charts off BB and call it a day.

    I love the type of music Dua Lipa is serving right now. I am super excited that Gaga has gone back to dance-pop, but I would be confused in the worst way if a song like “Stupid Love” despite its #5 debut, made it into the GF when Bad Romance and Edge of Glory missed out in the previous years. “Don’t Start Now” is a fantastic hit for Dua and show she is now a WW pop force; I fail to see how it breaks beyond that for consideration within what is supposed to be a representation of the top 8 records/songs the industry has heard in the year.

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    JJS5056
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    Anyway, what’s happening with “Physical”? I find it to be much superior to “Don’t Start Now”. Dua seems like she can’t push a second single right now, since Don’t Start Now is having a radio peak. But it sucks because “Physical” would’ve probably found better success in streaming.

    This is the entire issue with “the streaming era,” and using BB charts as a metric of musical quality has also become flawed as a result. Streaming has totally stripped music of the stardom that powered it previously; beyond being meme-able, even the artist can almost be anonymous nowadays. To contradict my last post, DSN is an example of the type of song I used to love the most: its slow, steady ascent to the top through promotion, A+ branding, increased GP awareness in tandem with a radio climb… DSN and Dua Lipa’s entire Future Nostalgia brand WILL be associated in my mind with 2020 music. It has a sense of place, a sense of permanency.

    Singles and albums used to be big events for artists with distinct themes and a 3-4 month promo cycle for each song to help build a narrative. Now, 1-2 singles are thrown at Spotify to see what sticks, a messy album is compiled and blasted, 8-10 songs chart on album week, and the era fizzles.

    The result is:

    1. A Billie Eilish who ends up with AOTY when only 1 of her songs from the album actually made an impact and even charted on the beloved BB Hot 100 top 10.

    2. The Weeknd whose lead single was eaten up by their 2nd release; the quality of their album will likely make their inclusion here a little less compelling, but it is hard to build momentum when the lead is overpowered by the 2nd single.

    3. Dua Lipa whose lead single was an incredible LEAD in that it clicked with the GP, slowly risen over months, and now has people excited for the release of her album and music that will very much be in the same vein of retro-infused songs; however, her 2nd single never stood a chance but many will say it was needed as releasing anything helps to boost streams, etc.

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    Bassett
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    Norah Jones swept because Come Away With Me was the biggest female album of the 2000’s (#4 on the decade-end chart) and was pure Grammy wet dream

    Don’t Know Why winning ROTY/SOTY was extremely flawed as it barely made it to #40 on the Hot 100 but we all know that the Academy is often eager to ignore their usual standards when it comes to traditional instrumental music

    FYC :

    Best Actress - Viola Davis
    Best Actor - Delroy Lindo, Chadwick Boseman
    Best Supp Actor - Daniel Kaluuya, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II

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    Darren
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    Norah Jones swept because Come Away With Me was the biggest female album of the 2000’s (#4 on the decade-end chart)

    Most of that came after the Grammys.

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    Bacchant
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    Cheering for a nomination for Hazel English in BNA. I’m in love with ‘Off My Mind’.

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    mf617
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    2. The Weeknd whose lead single was eaten up by their 2nd release; the quality of their album will likely make their inclusion here a little less compelling, but it is hard to build momentum when the lead is overpowered by the 2nd single.

    You know that The Weeknd is one person, right? And “Heartless” and “Blinding Lights” were released two days apart so they’re basically co-lead singles, each catering to a different audience.

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    Deemy
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    I would love if Doja gets across the board nominations in the General Field. She absolutely deserves it.

    So far my current lineup. Halfway through the Eligibility period.

    AOTY:

    Roddy Ricch – Please Excuse Me For Being Anti-Social
    Tame Impala – The Slow Rush
    Doja Cat – Hot Pink
    Harry Styles – Fine Line
    Post Malone – Hollywood’s Bleeding
    Brittney Howard – Jaime
    FKA Twigs – Magdalene
    The Highwomen – The Highwomen

    ROTY:

    Dua Lipa – Don’t Start Now
    Roddy Ricch – The Box
    Doja Cat – Say So
    Post Malone – Circles
    Harry Styles – Adore You
    The Weeknd – Blinding Lights
    Tones & I – Dance Monkey
    Billie Eilish – everything I wanted

    SOTY

    Billie Eilish – everything I wanted
    Selena Gomez – Lose you to love Me
    Doja Cat – Say So
    Post Malone – Circles
    Harry Styles – Adore You
    Sam Smith – To Die For
    Maren Morris – The Bones
    Dua Lipa – Don’t Start Now

    Best New Artist:

    Summer Walker
    Doja Cat
    Lewis Capaldi
    Tones & I
    Sam Fender
    Kim Petras
    Megan thee Stallion
    Joji

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    Ghost
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    “The Box” is a lock for ROTY. It’s already nine weeks at #1 and has crossed over to pop radio. It doesn’t matter how this year shapes up; it’s in.

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    Roger Federer
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    Anyway, what’s happening with “Physical”? I find it to be much superior to “Don’t Start Now”. Dua seems like she can’t push a second single right now, since Don’t Start Now is having a radio peak. But it sucks because “Physical” would’ve probably found better success in streaming.

    After DSN starts to fall off the charts, PHYSICAL will gain momentum….

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    BICTH
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    is paul on holiday again? we’ve gone way over 500 at this point

    anyway dua probably wants don’t start now to top the hot 100 on release week and then properly push physical

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    M
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    Dua is going to have to rely on radios to make “Physical” a hit and not sure if it’ll happen.

    She’s doing very well streaming in the rest of the world, but in the U.S she seems to struggle. I don’t think she’s going to have as a strong of an era as Billie or Ariana last year. But a high MC score can help her get AOTY nod.

     

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    "How You Doin'"
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    Honey, it’ll be hard to fill eight slots for AOTY in this shitty year of music.  That bodes well for Dua Lipa.

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