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2021 Grammy Awards Predictions (Part 3)

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    Vogue
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    Doja Cat? Idk about that yet.

    Lol at people still predicting Selena Gomez for any nominations.

    The Box is legit. Don’t discredit it.

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    M
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    The Weeknd’s “Heartless” is at #111 on Spotify, “After Hours” is at #53.

    “Blinding Lights” is really saving this era.

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    ScottyDog
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    That’ll change once the album is released. Lil Uzi Vert’s album has a lot of tracks that are occupying the charts.

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    JJS5056
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    The Weeknd’s “Heartless” is at #111 on Spotify, “After Hours” is at #53. “Blinding Lights” is really saving this era.

    Again, another major flaw in using BB Hot 100 as the only way of gauging quality music in the streaming era. As I said, you either need to sacrifice your lead single or 2nd single in order to get a big hit and the momentum to sell an album these days, which – because many artists still do not get enough of a ‘hit’ to justify the costs for their label – are no longer ‘eras.’ Ava Max is releasing her DEBUT ALBUM soon, and from what I gather, only Sweet But Pyscho will be included out of the singles she released between then and her latest King & Queens. I am not a fan, but I do know she’s released So Am I, Salt, Torn, Alone pt. 2, and at least 1 other single since SBP.

    How can you create a cohesive body of work with a defined sound, visuals, etc., when you know that if you can’t grab multiple hit singles, the album won’t be released? It’s clear that Dua Lipa’s label and team are confident in Future Nostalgia, but if she were a U.S.-focused act (she is much more successful in the UK and Europe), Future Nostalgia would be a massive risk since Don’t Start Now only JUST started to gain real traction in the U.S. and Physical has yet, and likely never will, reach that level.

    You either sacrifice your lead single like The Weeknd (why do people call him Abel? Serious question. Nobody calls ‘Gaga’ Stefani?) and Bieber did; or, you sacrifice the 2nd single like Selena Gomez and Dua Lipa did. When an artist attempts to give their first single enough time to build a presence on its own, it is labeled a flop. Case in point: ‘Stupid Love.’ Its gains on Top 40/HAC radio have been monstrous this week so, along with a great Top 5 debut, it will be near/in the Top 10 during album release and for another ~4 weeks.

    Dua’s rise on the charts has been on the back of radio-play. Stupid Love is getting radio love much quicker and had the benefit of a huge debut, yet the assessment of each single’s performance couldn’t be different on here. SL is already a massive success for a 2000s era popstar, but even moreso when you consider that it has given her radio credibility, will serve consistency on the charts after this week once that radio AI is set, and will be a better setup for her second single than a ‘Yummy’ or ‘Heartless’ were.

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    JJS5056
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    I don’t see ‘Say So’ getting in; it is reaching its shelf life and its peak won’t be high enough to justify inclusion. A nice debut hit, though, and I think she has earned BNA consideration. ‘Roxanne’ and ‘Dance Monkey’ are just… not my taste… and I can’t believe they are in discussions about the GF or even genre noms. Again, in the days where Tik Tok can allow a song to soar into the BB Top 10, we can’t let the charts dictate everything.

    It will be interesting to see/hear how the upcoming albums do from Weeknd, Dua Lipa, and Gaga. The major lineups could/probably should end up looking a lot more ‘traditional’ depending on how those go. I think ‘Intentions’ by Bieber could get a SOTY/ROTY nod and Pop Duo; ‘Adore You’ is also climbing its way up thanks to radio which could propel it into the GF and possibly nudge Fine Line into AOTY consideration.

    Are there major rock or country releases to look out for? I think The Weeknd, Roddy Rich, and Post Malone are locks for AOTY but that makes pop-leaning acts a lot less likely to fill the lineup out IMO.

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    M
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    Based on how weak Pop Duo/GP is this year, Ariana Grande is probably looking at two nominations in this categery; for “Good as hell (remix)” with Lizzo and “Rain On Me” with Gaga (assuming it’ll do well which I think it will).

    Now imagine if “Don’t Call Me Angel” gets in to.

    • This reply was modified 8 months, 3 weeks ago by M.
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    M
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    Stupid Love is getting radio love much quicker and had the benefit of a huge debut, yet the assessment of each single’s performance couldn’t be different on here. SL is already a massive success for a 2000s era popstar, but even moreso when you consider that it has given her radio credibility, will serve consistency on the charts after this week once that radio AI is set, and will be a better setup for her second single than a ‘Yummy’ or ‘Heartless’ were.

    Yeah. I’m suprised it’s doing well so far on radio. If this trend continues, it could actually boost the era overall.

    That’s why I thought it was too early to call the era a “flop” like some people were trying to do. At the bare minimum, she’s already outperforming “Joanne” era lol.

    Every pop star that released this year had an underperforming lead or second single (Heartless, Look At Her Now, Physical, Yummy etc..)

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    M
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    3 noms is too much in one category. Memories, and My Oh My are pretty safe bets at this point, and Intentions or What A Man Gotta Do will probably get in, could be both.

    Now, Lana did get two noms last year and Ariana did get filler noms so who the fuck knows. That category has been a mess the last few years.

    I think the final lineup as of today would be Memories/My Oh My/Intentions/Good As Hell/Rain On Me.

    Is the original Good As Hell not eligible though? She could release a live version anyhow.

    Memories is a safe bet. However I’m not sure about My Oh My. I feel like this Camilla’s era has been a total flop non-factor. She’ll probably be ignored.

    I think Intentions will be in too. It’s doing quite well and is saving his era. I don’t think he’ll get a Pop Album nod though if it gets competitive.

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    Kai
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    Stupid Love is getting zero nominations. The song is a flop on everywhere but radio, predicted to be leaving the top 30 in its second week, and radio will follow once callout scores are out.

    Not to mention the song is simply not an appealing song to Grammy voters, especially not the type of Gaga music they have shown to like in the past two years.

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    M
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    Stupid Love is getting zero nominations. The song is a flop on everywhere but radio, predicted to be leaving the top 30 in its second week, and radio will follow once callout scores are out.

    Not to mention the song is simply not an appealing song to Grammy voters, especially not the type of Gaga music they have shown to like in the past two years.

    Whether Stupid Love gets a nom or not will simply come down to the narrative. Do you think voters will single out one specific week care about what position SL had on its second week? They’re going to look at the whole era. If they like the album, Stupid Love will be in as a name check.

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    Darren
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    I think Ariana’s live album and Coldplay’s forgotten album are more likely than Changes at this point.

    Nah.

    Regardless, I think Changes will be placed in Urban Contemporary Album.

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    #1203383002

    Don’t Start Now reaches a new peak of #2 on Billboard Hot 100.

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