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2021 Grammy Awards Predictions (Part 5)

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    janet.
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    #1203398777

    Honey, Dua Lipa will NOT get the Lorde/Lana Del Rey treatment.  She’ll easily get in Best Pop Vocal Album.  Her album won’t bomb like the other girls’ did.

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    5arteet
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    What would you guys consider locks (if there are any) for AOTY so far?

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    tomblights
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    Dua Lipa is definitely entering ROTY, SOTY, BPVA and BPSP, maybe she will get an nomination in SOTY.

     

     

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    tomblights
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    Lady Gaga is releasing her album at the end of the summer, Stupid Love is a radio hit and she has a big ft with Ariana coming, she will not be forgotten.

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    tomblights
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    What would you guys consider locks (if there are any) for AOTY so far?

    for now Dua with her acclaimed album and future # 1 hit DSN, TW with her #1s and hit album

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    PleaseFeedTheTroll
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    Dua Lipa is unsurprisingly bombing in America. Her album not opening in the top three with all of that payola is embarrassing. Some of you are really pushing that she is about to be another Billie Eilish sweep with those positions? The only people who are in the running for Album of the Year nominations right now are The Weeknd, Roddy Ricch, Lil Uzi Vert, Post Malone, Harry Styles, Tame Impala.

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    rue
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    Dua Lipa is unsurprisingly bombing in America. Her album not opening in the top three with all of that payola is embarrassing.

    It says among the top debuts. I doubt Dua will get her number 1 at this point but she’s definitely beating 5sos. Her album is out-streaming and is higher on iTunes.

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    PleaseFeedTheTroll
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    #1203398891

    It says among the top debuts. I doubt Dua will get her number 1 at this point but she’s definitely beating 5sos. Her album is out-streaming and is higher on iTunes.

    If they are bringing those two as the top debuts, then her numbers are obviously not as high.

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    rue
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    If they are bringing those two as the top debuts, then her numbers are obviously not as high.

    They… didn’t say that? “Among our top debuts” does not mean “our top debuts”. In fact, them saying “among” makes it seem like they really want to be clear that those aren’t the two highest debuts. It’s clear that they don’t have figures for Dua yet. Will she be doing incredible numbers? No. I would estimate around 90k for her at this point (but that could be wrong).

    • This reply was modified 3 months, 1 week ago by rue.
    • This reply was modified 3 months, 1 week ago by rue.
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    M
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    The best selling album doesn’t always win Pop Vocal; Sweetener was way, way behind Reputation and Beautiful Trauma sold more I believe. The hype is what matters. If Dua manages to keep herself busy and gets a few other hits, she can definitely win. Right now I think her most likely wins are Pop Solo Performance (not buying Billie sweeping again, and The Weeknd is not that well liked by whoever votes in pop to be a lock), and Best Music Video if Physical gets a nod. Everything else is up in the air. I have no idea who’s winning Pop Vocal. Chromatica seems like an afterthought and the lead single is not helping its case, Post Malone ain’t winning shit, and Harry Styles is probably gonna face the boy-band stigma. I could honestly see all of the 4 above winning but all of their cases have big flaws.

    Sweetener was way behind Reputation because it was released almost a year later.

    Sweetener opened with 240k SPS (similar to IOP, ASIB) and had two Top 10 hits before TUN gave it another boost. I wouldn’t compare it to FN, if it sells less than 100k. I can’t remember a Pop Album winner that sold less than 100k in its first week. As I said right now her best chance is Pop Solo. But I think that one will go to The Weeknd. His song is about to go #1 and will probably keep that spot for weeks.

     

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    tomblights
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    #1203398922

    Dua Lipa is unsurprisingly bombing in America. Her album not opening in the top three with all of that payola is embarrassing. Some of you are really pushing that she is about to be another Billie Eilish sweep with those positions? The only people who are in the running for Album of the Year nominations right now are The Weeknd, Roddy Ricch, Lil Uzi Vert, Post Malone, Harry Styles, Tame Impala.

    You are overestimating Harry, he is not entering the Big 4 without a top 3 hit

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    tomblights
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    <span style=”vertical-align: inherit;”><span style=”vertical-align: inherit;”>Adoçante estava muito atrás da Reputação porque foi lançada quase um ano depois.</span></span> <span style=”vertical-align: inherit;”><span style=”vertical-align: inherit;”>O adoçante abriu com 240k SPS (semelhante à IOP, ASIB) e teve dois hits no Top 10 antes do TUN dar outro impulso. </span><span style=”vertical-align: inherit;”>Eu não compararia com o FN, se vender menos de 100k. </span><span style=”vertical-align: inherit;”>Não me lembro de um vencedor de um álbum pop que vendeu menos de 100 mil na primeira semana. </span><span style=”vertical-align: inherit;”>Como eu disse agora, sua melhor chance é Pop Solo. </span><span style=”vertical-align: inherit;”>Mas acho que alguém irá ao The Weeknd. </span><span style=”vertical-align: inherit;”>Sua música está prestes a ficar em primeiro lugar e provavelmente manterá esse lugar por semanas.</span></span>

     

    I saw some predictions that indicate DSN # 1 the week after BL’s # 1

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    rue
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    Sweetener was way behind Reputation because it was released almost a year later.

    This argument doesn’t really work. I don’t believe Sweetener would ever have sold more than reputation regardless of when it was released that week. I believe after one year Sweetener never sold more than reputation did in its debut (could be wrong) so even if the times had been switched Taylor still would have sold more. Ariana won purely due to having the hype that came from thank u, next.

    What’s really important is to feel like the bigger artist at the time. While voting was happening, Ariana was at her absolute peak in terms of success and public sympathy. reputation had faded almost entirely from the public’s conscience. I would say most people you ask would say Sweetener was the bigger album because it left more of a dent in public conscience.

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    tomblights
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    This argument doesn’t really work. I don’t believe Sweetener would ever have sold more than reputation regardless of when it was released that week. I believe after one year Sweetener never sold more than reputation did in its debut (could be wrong) so even if the times had been switched Taylor still would have sold more. Ariana won purely due to having the hype that came from thank u, next. What’s really important is to feel like the bigger artist at the time. While voting was happening, Ariana was at her absolute peak in terms of success and public sympathy. reputation had faded almost entirely from the public’s conscience. I would say most people you ask would say Sweetener was the bigger album because it left more of a dent in public conscience.

    if it wasn’t Ariana, it would be Kelly or Pink, Taylor would never win with that bad album.

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