November 29, 2020 at 1:35 pm #1203882695
I wouldn’t say Dua is an prime position to pull a clean sweep, because she has the big hit(DSN #4 on YEC like Bad Guy), but her album is not big as Billie or Adele or Bruno to take also the album. That’s why people predict this split. It could go down to the Grammys loving FN so much to give also AOTY, but I think the non Pop genre voters will choose Folklore in AOTY.November 29, 2020 at 1:43 pm #1203882702
Love the Latin Talent BTW hihi
Albums of the Year:
2020: After Hours (RU: folklore)
2019: Titanic Rising (RU: Charli)
2018: OIL OF EVERY PEARL’S UN-INSIDES (RU: You Won’t Get What You Want)
2017: Saturation Trilogy (RU: Melodrama)
2016: Blonde (RU: Blackstar)
2020 favorite albums:
1. after hours
3. fetch the bolt cutters
5. what’s your pleasure?
7. windswept adan
9. the slow rush
11. the new abnormal
12. lianne la havas
13. women in music pt. iiiNovember 29, 2020 at 1:46 pm #1203882710
Dua really shouldn’t be underestimated. Her winning BNA is still so impressive to me considering how low her profile & celebrity still was two years ago and how she only had one other nomination (and won that too!)
Aside from how it’d be really weird for a POP album that spent less than a month in the T10, with one T10 song…
if we’re talking popularity back then: she had a t10. chloe halle didn’t. luke didn’t. greta didn’t. her didn’t. margo didn’t. jorja didn’t. bebe did, but i don’t think anyone takes her seriously.
jorja had 0 other noms. bebe had 1. margo had 0. luke had 0. chloehalle had 1. exceptions are: greta who had a 53 Metascore with no H100 entry; HER which was interesting but she did and still does have a fraction of the white pop girl’s name recognition.November 29, 2020 at 1:47 pm #1203882714
There are lots of alternatives that non-pop voters could also vote for instead of folklore tho.
The only group folklore could really solely attract are Country/Americana voters and even with them you can’t be too sure, since Betty failed to get a nomination.
And yes, it’s true that FN isn’t a big album (will land outside of the top 50 on the YEC), and that will be its biggest obstacle in both album categories,
But I feel pretty confident that she’ll win both ROTY & SOTY, and since 2017, the winners of those two also went on to win AOTY (which is very telling of the member’s recent voting behavior)
The one exception is Childish Gambino and that was only because he didn’t have an album eligible. If he had, I think he would’ve won AOTY too.November 29, 2020 at 1:51 pm #1203882718
I think if anything Dua will siphon a lot of pop votes away from Taylor. Taylor has never been in a situation where she is going up against someone who is categorized in the same genre. Country would have to really come through for Taylor to make up any lost pop votes. Post Malone is still there, too.November 29, 2020 at 1:52 pm #1203882722
Bebe had a huge hit actually. Meant to Be is certified Diamond in USA. But I don’t think her profile was convincing.November 29, 2020 at 1:57 pm #1203882730
2010+ Pop Album winners:
Billie: #1 album w/#1 hit
Ariana: #1 album w/multiple T10s
Ed: #1 album w/#1 hit
Adele: #1 album w/#1 hit
Taylor: #1 album w/#1 hit
Sam: #2 album w/multiple T10s
Bruno: #1 album w/#1 hit
Kelly: #2 album w/#1 hit
Adele: #1 album w/#1 hit
Gaga: a bit hard to classify. It did have multiple T10s. It was released as both a standalone and as a deluxe rerelease of The Fame, which was a #2 album.
BEP: #1 album w/#1 hitNovember 29, 2020 at 2:09 pm #1203882743
Dua will win AOTY.
She has the majority of pop voters – she went 3/3 in pop – even in BP/DGP which no one predicted for her.
Taylor also went 3/3 in pop, but it’s worth mentioning that cardigan and Yummy were likely tied for 5th most votes in Pop Solo, hence the 6 nominations.
Considering betty‘s lukewarm response on country radio, and its inability to score nominations in the country categories, it seems unlikely that enough country voters could come through for Taylor to make up her for her pop support deficit.
Any other groups of voters, like engineers, mixers, producers, etc. will likely mainly cast their votes for DJesse Vol. 3 and Future Nostalgia.
Unfortunately, this results in an outcome unfortunate for Taylor, but favorable to Dua.November 29, 2020 at 2:09 pm #1203882745
Aside from how it’d be really weird for a POP album that spent less than a month in the T10, with one T10 song… if we’re talking popularity back then: she had a t10. chloe halle didn’t. luke didn’t. greta didn’t. her didn’t. margo didn’t. jorja didn’t. bebe did, but i don’t think anyone takes her seriously. jorja had 0 other noms. bebe had 1. margo had 0. luke had 0. chloehalle had 1. exceptions are: greta who had a 53 Metascore with no H100 entry; HER which was interesting but she did and still does have a fraction of the white pop girl’s name recognition.
H.E.R. should have won BNA that year. She had clear support and would’ve been a deserving winner. There was most likely big vote splitting between H.E.R., Chloe X Halle, & Jorja Smith, and paired with Dua’s rising pop star status, lead to Dua’s win.
Letterboxd: BrayfersNovember 29, 2020 at 2:11 pm #1203882752
Will any of the Soul Train Award winners tell us anything important about Grammy night that we don’t already know?
ROTY: Savage (Remix)
SOTY: Don’t Start Now
BNA: Megan Thee StallionNovember 29, 2020 at 2:14 pm #1203882756
I think if anything Dua will siphon a lot of pop votes away from Taylor. Taylor has never been in a situation where she is going up against someone who is categorized in the same genre. Country would have to really come through for Taylor to make up any lost pop votes. Post Malone is still there, too.
That’s actually a very good point, I never thought about it.
Taylor really had the only album of its genre up for AOTY in her previous 3 nominations, but this time there are 3 pop albums in AOTY.
If the bulk of the pop votes split between Taylor and Dua (with Dua getting a larger share imo), and then Post Malone also getting some left-over votes, those 3 could maybe even cancel each other out entirely, and open the way for a non-pop AOTY winner.
But then again, someone on the previous page(s) mentioned that ever since the GF has been expanded to 8 nominees, you now need fewer votes to win, so even with splitting the pop vote, one of them could still prevail.November 29, 2020 at 2:27 pm #1203882777
Considering betty‘s lukewarm response on country radio, and its inability to score nominations in the country categories, it seems unlikely that enough country voters could come through for Taylor to make up her for her pop support deficit..
I agree that Betty’s lack of nomination dampens the assumption that country will support folklore.
But country voters had multiple alternatives to vote for in their own genre. They didn’t have to support Betty, because they had other preferred country songs they could choose (and they did).
But in AOTY, they don’t have an alternative that fits directly to their genre: There’s no Country/Americana/Bluegrass etc. album nominated for AOTY.
Assuming that genre voters mostly vote for their own genre in the GF (which is the whole basis of why we even differentiate voter groups), then they could still rally behind folklore, despite Betty’s no-show, since I’d argue that folklore is the closest thing to a country album out of the AOTY options, so it would be the most fitting alternative for them.
Ofc those voters could also simply decide to not vote for AOTY after all, or vote for an album that’s very different to their genre and taste. Who knows, maybe they’ll like Coldplay or HAIM’s album more than Taylor’s?November 29, 2020 at 2:28 pm #1203882786
we all know i’m biased but i’m just gonna put down my thoughts on the albums that i have listened to fully (planning on listening to the rest later – i’ve listened to some, just not all the way through).
if it were up to me, my winner would be haim but from what i’ve seen, i think it’s in between dua, haim, and taylor.
- it’s taylor swift
- critically, it’s her best album so far and she’s already gotten 2 aotys with albums that didn’t perform as well
- she wrote it in quarantine which has to stand for something
- personal thoughts: there isn’t enough going on in the different tracks, found it a bit boring but i’m gonna try to relisten again soon
women in music part iii
- swerves through a ton of genres thus more likely to be appreciated by voters throughout genres
- it’s the most highly critically acclaimed album of the ones nominated
- feels very relevant to the year (i know alone, i’ve been down, etc)
- the title itself is quite powerful and could be a statement if it won
- personal opinion: this is one of my favorite albums of the year and it’s whats gotten me through 2020 tbh. every time i listen, i find something new to enjoy on the production which is super dope
- it definitely has the most ‘pop’ appeal out of all the other albums
- she’s been doing sooooo much promo lol
- personal opinion: i mean the album is a bop there’s no denying that but i feel like any other artist could’ve made it – it doesn’t feel specific to dua
The topic ‘2021 Grammy Predictions: Album of the Year (Part 14)’ is closed to new replies.