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2021 Grammy Predictions: Album of the Year (Part 14)

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    Jerry
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    #1203883109

    I agree that Betty’s lack of nomination dampens the assumption that country will support folklore. But country voters had multiple alternatives to vote for in their own genre. They didn’t have to support Betty, because they had other preferred country songs they could choose (and they did). But in AOTY, they don’t have an alternative that fits directly to their genre: There’s no Country/Americana/Bluegrass etc. album nominated for AOTY. Assuming that genre voters mostly vote for their own genre in the GF (which is the whole basis of why we even differentiate voter groups), then they could still rally behind folklore, despite Betty’s no-show, since I’d argue that folklore is the closest thing to a country album out of the AOTY options, so it would be the most fitting alternative for them. Ofc those voters could also simply decide to not vote for AOTY after all, or vote for an album that’s very different to their genre and taste. Who knows, maybe they’ll like Coldplay or HAIM’s album more than Taylor’s?

    The country committee seems to have beef with Taylor. In the Red era she didn’t even get into all the country categories, but that doesn’t mean that country voters don’t like her. So that leads me to think that maybe she would’ve gotten in but the process between the first round/nominations screwed her over. Either way it doesn’t really tell us much because folklore is the closest option to country in the AOTY category. And her being an ex-country act who has had the support of the country voters in the past furtherly helps her.

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    Jerry
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    #1203883117

    Honey, Dua Lipa deserve 5 Grammys and Pop/Duo going to Rain On Me. Taylor doesn’t have that much support. And Dua had been on the road for a long time. Also Taylor has just 1 win at Pop Field.

    Rain On Me isn’t getting a thing

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    Jerry
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    #1203883145

    I don’t think people realize how big Taylor’s win was in 2016. Sound and Colors, To Pimp A Butterfly, and that Chris Stapleton album was HUGE competition. And that was the last pure pop album to excel at the Grammys. I think at this point it’s clear that you can’t just have a decent pop album to win AOTY. It’s actually extremely rare for pure pop to sweep. Since 2000 only 1 pure pop album won AOTY. And that was 1989. And she likely only won it because she had a very extensive and aggressive Grammys campaign that no one else could outdo. Future Nostalgia also has moments of dance pop, a genre that really isn’t too popular in the general field. Taylor will likely do really decent with the pop vote, siphon *some* of the alt/rock votes (not many) and a bulk of the country votes (because there’s literally no other clear choice.) Future Nostalgia and folklore are certainly both in the running but folklore is the pretty clear front runner right now. Future Nostalgia’s biggest problem is that it will only appeal to pop voters. And any sort of vote from mixers and producers that want to award it’s great production will be breaking for Jacob Collier in large margins.

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    Jerry
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    #1203883181

    Dua will win AOTY. She has the majority of pop voters – she went 3/3 in pop – even in BP/DGP which no one predicted for her. Taylor also went 3/3 in pop, but it’s worth mentioning that cardigan and Yummy were likely tied for 5th most votes in Pop Solo, hence the 6 nominations. Considering betty‘s lukewarm response on country radio, and its inability to score nominations in the country categories, it seems unlikely that enough country voters could come through for Taylor to make up her for her pop support deficit. Any other groups of voters, like engineers, mixers, producers, etc. will likely mainly cast their votes for DJesse Vol. 3 and Future Nostalgia. Unfortunately, this results in an outcome unfortunate for Taylor, but favorable to Dua.

    That’s like saying Ariana was a front runner because Boyfriend got nominated. It’s a weak field, it got in because she has a lot of support from pop voters, same reason why exile got in despite not being a single. They both have large amounts of pop support, I’d say in fact equal (maybe dua has a slight edge.) But that’s gonna be made up in country voters/alt/rock voters. Remember only 5-10% need to deflect from the nominees in their field (which could happen because the BRP hand picked the rock nominations for AOTY, one of which are patricianly strong) to hand Taylor a win. And even if Taylor doesn’t win the country vote, if she gets 30-40% of it that trounces Dua. And no country, rock, or alt voters are voting for that. Also I doubt there’s enough engineers, mixers, producers, etc to get Dua over the top. Especially because they’ll be splitting for Jacob Collier big time.

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    joesilver
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    #1203883212

    I don’t think people realize how big Taylor’s win was in 2016. Sound and Colors, To Pimp A Butterfly, and that Chris Stapleton album was HUGE competition. And that was the last pure pop album to excel at the Grammys. I think at this point it’s clear that you can’t just have a decent pop album to win AOTY. It’s actually extremely rare for pure pop to sweep. Since 2000 only 1 pure pop album won AOTY. And that was 1989. And she likely only won it because she had a very extensive and aggressive Grammys campaign that no one else could outdo. Future Nostalgia also has moments of dance pop, a genre that really isn’t too popular in the general field. Taylor will likely do really decent with the pop vote, siphon *some* of the alt/rock votes (not many) and a bulk of the country votes (because there’s literally no other clear choice.) Future Nostalgia and folklore are certainly both in the running but folklore is the pretty clear front runner right now. Future Nostalgia’s biggest problem is that it will only appeal to pop voters. And any sort of vote from mixers and producers that want to award it’s great production will be breaking for Jacob Collier in large margins.

    But Future Nostalgia is not just a decent pop album. It has the same metacritic score of Folklore (88) which it’s impressive for a female dance-pop album.

    Obviously Folklore is the frontrunner but I wouldn’t count Dua out.

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    sara
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    #1203883225

    I think Jacob Collier will get this-folklore nor future are THAT big compared to other mainstream albums that have won.

    FYC: future nostalgia, Sawayama, Hollywood’s bleeding

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    Jerry
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    #1203883251

    But Future Nostalgia not just a decent pop album. It has the same metacritic score of Folklore (88) which it’s impressive for a female dance-pop album. Obviously Folklore is the frontrunner but I wouldn’t count Dua out.

    Metacritic isn’t super reliable for predicting these things. It seems like pop albums have to be colossally huge to win, 1989 was literally the only pure pop album since 2000s (and before) to win. Critics and music creators are different. And it’s also worth noting that folklore was 90+ when it had the same amount of reviews as FN, also the fact that folklore was Taylor’s 8th album with expectations running high. Many 4s/4.5s read as 5 star reviews but they seemed stingy with giving it perfect scores.

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    Jerry
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    #1203883253

    I think Jacob Collier will get this-folklore nor future are THAT big compared to other mainstream albums that have won.

    He’s certainly not gonna win but the mixer/producer vote will likely go to him quite easily because his album puts production center-stage. So I see that portion of the vote going to him. Also the country vote will likely go overwhelmingly to Taylor even if they are hesitant. I don’t expect them to break for HAIM or Coldplay at large rates and those are the only two albums they’d even consider. It’s clear that at this point just “pop” support isn’t gonna win anyone the award because they are gonna ultimately split for Dua/Taylor.

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    Vogue
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    #1203883259

    I’m just gonna say Taylor deserved all her grammys. Every single one of them. This doesn’t change the fact that the grammys are indeed very racist and give very little space to poc’s but I can tell, you guys don’t really care about poc struggles. You use it as a drag against whatever artist you dislike and protect the ones you like so please stop it already.

    In no way shape or form did Taylor deserve to win AOTY over To Pimp A Butterfly. Y’all are insane.

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    Vogue
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    #1203883262

    You know, I’m thinking about the Abel snub and looking back, his era really hasn’t been any bigger than the tu,n era. I think we really really overhyped his chances and while him getting zero nods is unexpected, when we couple it with the genre confusion and name at the bottom of the list etc. then it isn’t super shocking. Egregious, yes, but not super shocking. In fact, I’d say Ariana’s album was a much bigger cultural moment and actually had two big hits.

    Lmfao. What is it with y’all and trying so desperately hard to justify this terrible snub?

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    Che
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    Sep 6th, 2020
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    #1203883264

    It’s the treatment Taylor deserves. All black people should make music shading Taylor and Grammys to be nominated at GF.

    What in the moriahface is going on here?

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    #1203883277
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    blinders
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    #1203883291

    Say what you want about After Hours (significantly worse and less successful albums have made it into AOTY off the back of much smaller, less acclaimed hits but whatever), but Blinding Lights being completely snubbed across the board is inexcusable.

    I don’t know whether the blame lies with the voting body or the Grammys themselves, but more transparency is needed if they wish to retain even a tiny bit of the prestige they’re still afforded.

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    TomAndJerry
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    Oct 4th, 2020
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    #1203883296

    Lmfao. What is it with y’all and trying so desperately hard to justify this terrible snub?

    Yeah. Even if he missed the genre nomination he should’ve made it in the GF. Post malone has been constantly making it why didn’t Abel?

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    MarinaBelo2
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    #1203883298

    I don’t think people realize how big Taylor’s win was in 2016. Sound and Colors, To Pimp A Butterfly, and that Chris Stapleton album was HUGE competition. And that was the last pure pop album to excel at the Grammys. I think at this point it’s clear that you can’t just have a decent pop album to win AOTY. It’s actually extremely rare for pure pop to sweep. Since 2000 only 1 pure pop album won AOTY. And that was 1989. And she likely only won it because she had a very extensive and aggressive Grammys campaign that no one else could outdo.

    1989 won because the academy likes Taylor Swift. If the same album had the same sales, hits, reviews and etc but the artist was someone else, it would have lost, just like The Fame, The Fame Monster, Teenage Dream, Loud, Thank U Next, etc, etc. Pure pop albums don’t win AOTY because all the country and rock voters vote against them. If Dua actually manages to win, kudos to her, she’ll join Taylor as the only female artist to do so, ever.

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