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2021 Grammy Predictions: Album of the Year (Part 14)

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    blinders
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    I think people forget just how gigantic 1989 was in the US. It ruled the charts for over a year and I don’t think we’ve seen a pop album with that combination of acclaim, success and narrative in Grammy contention in many years before or since.

    To Pimp A Butterfly was objectively the better project, but – for better or worse – I don’t think anyone could have beaten 1989 in any year (regardless of who released it… though this is a weird argument, because it’s a Taylor Swift album that couldn’t have been released by anyone except Taylor Swift).

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    MarinaBelo2
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    #1203883308

    Yeah. Even if he missed the genre nomination he should’ve made it in the GF. Post malone has been constantly making it why didn’t Abel?

    That’s the million dollar question. But his absence from the Pop field is weird as well.

    We could say it’s racism, but if Lizzo and Doja Cat got their expected noms, why didn’t him?

    Maybe it’s the same “phenomenon” that made Lorde, Lana and Ed Sheeran’s Perfect be snubbed before. Probably there’s something fish behind those snubs as well, I never believed they were natural, because they were replaced with something that was clear filler(Beyoncé’s The Gift, Coldplay’s EP, etc). It really felt like the voters were searching for a filler nomination to replace them.

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    Deemy
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    #1203883312

    Will any of the Soul Train Award winners tell us anything important about Grammy night that we don’t already know?

    If ChloexHalle take Album of the Year they will also win Profressive R&B Album despite Jhene’s AOTY nod. That’s the only thing that’s up in the year.

    Also we will see if I Can’t Breathe is stronger than Black Parade if she beats Beyoncé for Song of the Year.

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    sara
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    #1203883322

    1989 won because the academy likes Taylor Swift. If the same album had the same sales, hits, reviews and etc but the artist was someone else, it would have lost, just like The Fame, The Fame Monster, Teenage Dream, Loud, Thank U Next, etc, etc. Pure pop albums don’t win AOTY because all the country and rock voters vote against them. If Dua actually manages to win, kudos to her, she’ll join Taylor as the only female artist to do so, ever.

    Loud and thank u next were not even close to 1989s sales-1989 is one of the most successful BB200 album in the last 20 years(if im not mistaken its the 4th most successful this century)
    Teenage dream’s critical acclaim was crappola
    Idrk enough about TFM/TF sales to compare to 1989.

    Anyway 1989 is the most awarded pop album of all time so it’s not like it wasn’t big.

    FYC: future nostalgia, Sawayama, Hollywood’s bleeding

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    Jerry
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    #1203883334

    1989 won because the academy likes Taylor Swift. If the same album had the same sales, hits, reviews and etc but the artist was someone else, it would have lost, just like The Fame, The Fame Monster, Teenage Dream, Loud, Thank U Next, etc, etc. Pure pop albums don’t win AOTY because all the country and rock voters vote against them. If Dua actually manages to win, kudos to her, she’ll join Taylor as the only female artist to do so, ever.

    Well I don’t think you’re exactly wrong. But they have not been scared to snub her (Speak Now, Red, reputation, Lover) are the best examples. Even though the latter two ultimately got what they deserved and that was nominations. I think that overall 1989 probably was able to win a lot of the “producer” vote which helped her win. Something Dua could’ve done if the Blue Ribbon Panel didn’t inject Jacob Collier into the mix.

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    MarinaBelo2
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    #1203883336

    Loud and thank u next were not even close to 1989s sales-1989 is one of the most successful BB200 album in the last 20 years(if im not mistaken its the 4th most successful this century) Teenage dream’s critical acclaim was crappola Idrk enough about TFM/TF sales to compare to 1989. Anyway 1989 is the most awarded pop album of all time so it’s not like it wasn’t big.

    I’m not trying to discredit 1989’s win. What I meant was that the Academy doesn’t really like female popstars. They win on their field, sometimes they even struggle to do that(Rihanna never won a Pop category, Beyoncé won 1, Gaga only has many awards thanks to the AC soundtrack, etc), but they never win in the General Field, just like rappers never do.

    Taylor is an exception, probably because she had already won before, when she was a country artist. The old, conservative voters liked her. Since 1989 was a huge album and she campaigned hard for it, they didn’t throw a curveball nor voted for the Beck/Arcade Fire nominee, like they usually do.

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    Jerry
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    #1203883338

    Maybe it’s the same “phenomenon” that made Lorde, Lana and Ed Sheeran’s Perfect be snubbed before. Probably there’s something fish behind those snubs as well, I never believed they were natural, because they were replaced with something that was clear filler(Beyoncé’s The Gift, Coldplay’s EP, etc). It really felt like the voters were searching for a filler nomination to replace them.

    Isn’t it quite common for R&B albums that get into AOTY to lose in the R&B categories? BRP fumbling the bag again it seems.

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    lsstg
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    #1203883340

    Here’s how The Box can win SOTY:

    • Straight R&B votes split between Black Parade and I Can’t Breathe
    • Pop votes split between Don’t Start Now and Circles
    • Pop/alt votes split between cardigan and Everything I Wanted
    • If The World Was Ending is a non-factor, no one is voting for that
    • This leaves The Box, a critically acclaimed smash which ruled airwaves for the first quarter of 2020, and the only hip-hop song in contention this year.
    • Gold Derby users believe that cardigan is the frontrunner, but the Academy hasn’t awarded SOTY to a song that wasn’t a smash hit for the past 20+ years, and I don’t expect them to break this tradition now.
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    Vicennn
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    #1203883345

    The Box

    may win

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    Jerry
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    #1203883347

    I’m not trying to discredit 1989’s win. What I meant was that the Academy doesn’t really like female popstars. They win on their field, sometimes they even struggle to do that(Rihanna never won a Pop category, Beyoncé won 1, Gaga only has many awards thanks to the AC soundtrack, etc), but they never win in the General Field, just like rappers never do. Taylor is an exception, probably because she had already won before, when she was a country artist. The old, conservative voters liked her. Since 1989 was a huge album and she campaigned hard for it, they didn’t throw a curveball nor voted for the Beck/Arcade Fire nominee, like they usually do.

    I think the proper statement is that the academy simply doesn’t like pure pop projects. Male or female. 1989 is the only pure pop album of the 2000s/2010s to win. It likely won because she was able to corner a lot of the engineer/producer vote because they didn’t have much elsewhere to go because 1989’s production was immaculate.

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    M
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    #1203883350

    I think people forget just how gigantic 1989 was in the US. It ruled the charts for over a year and I don’t think we’ve seen a pop album with that combination of acclaim, success and narrative in Grammy contention in many years before or since.

    To Pimp A Butterfly was objectively the better project, but – for better or worse – I don’t think anyone could have beaten 1989 in any year (regardless of who released it… though this is a weird argument, because it’s a Taylor Swift album that couldn’t have been released by anyone except Taylor Swift).

    1989 was not really “acclaimed”. It received a generally favorable reception. But it was a very success album.

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    MarinaBelo2
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    #1203883353

    Well I don’t think you’re exactly wrong. But they have not been scared to snub her (Speak Now, Red, reputation, Lover) are the best examples. Even though the latter two ultimately got what they deserved and that was nominations. I think that overall 1989 probably was able to win a lot of the “producer” vote which helped her win. Something Dua could’ve done if the Blue Ribbon Panel didn’t inject Jacob Collier into the mix.

    Well, that’s the BRP, not the voting body’s choice. :p

    Speak Now wasn’t impactful compared to Fearless, that’s why it was snubbed. Besides, they usually snub the album that follows an AOTY winner from the same artist. The same applies to Reputation. While Reputation losing to Sweetener in Pop Vocal Album is a consequence of Sweetener actually having an “era”, while Reputation was released and forgotten about.

    Lover was a flop for Taylor’s standards. It lacked a big hit and a narrative. It was just a good album, kinda similar to 1989 but without the same numbers, narrative, popularity, impact, etc. It wasn’t really a snub.

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    Jerry
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    #1203883355

    Here’s how The Box can win SOTY:

    • Straight R&B votes split between Black Parade and I Can’t Breathe
    • Pop votes split between Don’t Start Now and Circles
    • Pop/alt votes split between cardigan and Everything I Wanted
    • If The World Was Ending is a non-factor, no one is voting for that
    • This leaves The Box, a critically acclaimed smash which ruled airwaves for the first quarter of 2020, and the only hip-hop song in contention this year.
    • Gold Derby users believe that cardigan is the frontrunner, but the Academy hasn’t awarded SOTY to a song that wasn’t a smash hit for the past 20+ years, and I don’t expect them to break this tradition now.

    I actually do agree, however this is certainly a different year. cardigan could win simply because the academy has let her lose here 4 other times. Also though, I see cardigan leading EIW with pop votes/alt votes. DSN will narrowly win the pop vote. I still think Taylor is the frontrunner because she has some pop, some alt, and likely country voters on her side here, but you’ve convinced me that Roddy is also a frontrunner.

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    maxinho
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    #1203883357

    1989 was pure heavy campaign with grammy voters even before nominations came out. The way she shoved that album down their throats after she lost for Red was ruthless. Sound & Color checked all the boxes and was meant to win that award, but Taylor HAD to win her second before Adele.

    The academy doesn’t owe anything to Taylor, “cardigan” won’t win, they will go with a hit or a song with actual longevity.

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    Jerry
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    #1203883359

    Well, that’s the BRP, not the voting body’s choice. :p Speak Now wasn’t impactful compared to Fearless, that’s why it was snubbed. Besides, they usually snub the album that follows an AOTY winner from the same artist. The same applies to Reputation. While Reputation losing to Sweetener in Pop Vocal Album is a consequence of Sweetener actually having an “era”, while Reputation was released and forgotten about. Lover was a flop for Taylor’s standards. It lacked a big hit and a narrative. It was just a good album, kinda similar to 1989 but without the same numbers, narrative, popularity, impact, etc. It wasn’t really a snub.

    Agree I think reputation/Lover was only a snub for her standards. Overall they got what they deserved. Speak Now/Red were the real snubs.

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