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2022 Grammy Award Nomination Predictions (Part 15)

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    Deemy
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    But they don’t like Lana Del Rey. NFR was a committee choice.

    I doubt it. She got a subsequent SOTY nod for the title track. She was at least Top 10. Not because she didn’t make the genre lineup doesn’t mean she didn’t have support from other voting blocks. Look at Post Malone.

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    ciguanaba
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    the SOTY nomination was probably also a committee pick, I mean the song is genius.

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    AG
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    No namecheck for Kacey because the Grammys have made it clear that if you underwhelm after a great era you’re out.

    Can this argument hold for Billie?
    Kacey will have better numbers than the rest of her career but it won’t be enough to win aoty.

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    Mother Dináh
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    I doubt it. She got a subsequent SOTY nod for the title track. She was at least Top 10. Not because she didn’t make the genre lineup doesn’t mean she didn’t have support from other voting blocks. Look at Post Malone.

    NFR was in the bottom of the top 20 for SOTY and probably failed to make it to the ROTY shortlist.

    Similarly, I would say that Hey, Ma was probably in the bottom of the top 20 for ROTY but failed to do so in SOTY. Both are perfect fillers that usually only get nominated thanks to the BRP.

    Here are some confirmed snubs (thanks Dugan) and some probable snubs that were definitely present in the top 20 list, all above NFR:

    • We know for a fact that thank u, next and Beautiful People were in the top 8 for SOTY that year.
      • This is what Dugan talked about. 2020 was the only time both Ed & Ariana had SOTY submissions and the the first time the latter had enough power to even make it to the top 8 of GF categories.
    • Despite winning Rock Song, getting a BMV nomination and being highly speculated throughout 2019, This Land was not nominated for SOTY. It was absolutely blocked.
    • It’s hard to believe there wasn’t a single R&B or Rap song in the top 10.
    • Country was also very “committee’d” that year. Dan + Shay’s bland “Speechless” or Blake Shelton’s horrid “God’s Country” could’ve made it to the shortlist.

    • I am 100% sure anything Beyoncé submits makes it to the top 20. Spirit was definitely somewhere in the shortlist, maybe even higher than where it should’ve been…
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    epiphany
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    NFR! obviously not a committee pick, you guys give so much credit to pop voters. It has cross genre-appeal. I swear this site always labelling artists they dislike as committee pick if they get nominated.

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    epiphany
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    It’s too late for WAP imo unless Cardi surprise releases her album. This surely not another Truth Hurt situation which the song peaked during voting period.

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    epiphany
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    Anyway, I do think Bowie’s Blackstar was blocked from AOTY in favor of either Bieber, Drake or Sturgill Simpson.

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    2021ravenclaw1
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    I think Lana could’ve been Top 8 with NFR (Album) but there is no way that NFR (Song) wasn’t a committee pick. Lana didn’t get into pop not because of lack of support of the album, but because of the bigger names. Pop a lot of the time is name-check territory, and that year with Ariana,  Taylor, Billie, Beyoncé, and Ed she wasn’t getting in.

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    MariahC_WW
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    #1204445513

    Honestly, with the somewhat lukewarm reception, Star-Crossed has got so far, I really do not like Kacey’s chances. I know she’s a former AOTY winner, but I highly doubt this album does major numbers or has a country radio hit(esp. since most country radios have her blackballed still). I honestly feel like Chris Stapleton has a stronger chance of being the country nominee with a(more than likely) better-received album that has a country radio hit in “Starting Over” which is probably also a shoo-in for a Song of the Year nomination.

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    Rich Thot
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    I wasn’t even a big fan of NFR, but I do think folks assuming that it was strictly a “committee pick” are making some big assuming when there’s enough there to show it could have made the top 8. The album came out right at the end of eligibility. So, it was fresh on voters’ minds. The album got plenty of press because of its acclaim and being seen as where Lana becomes a “real artist”. While Lana was definitely known enough. Not getting any pop nods doesn’t prove it wasn’t in the top 8 for AOTY, since that’s the type of album that could have support coming from a variety of directions.

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    MariahC_WW
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    #1204445540

    AOTY

    1. Happier than Ever- Billie Eilish

    2. Sour- Olivia Rodrigo

    3. Call Me if You Get Lost- Tyler the Creator

    4. Back of My Mind- H.E.R.

    5. Medicine at Midnight- Foo Fighters

    6. Starting Over- Chris Stapleton

    7. Heaux Tales- Jazmine Sullivan

    8. Montero- Lil Nas X

    Record of the Year

    1. Leave the Door Open- Silk Sonic

    2. Happier than Ever- Billie Eilish

    3. drivers license- Olivia Rodrigo

    4. Montero(Call Me By Your Name)- Lil Nas X

    5. Kiss Me More- Doja Cat ft. SZA

    6. Damage- H.E.R.

    7. I Get a Kick Out of You- Tony Bennett ft. Lady Gaga

    8. Starting Over- Chris Stapleton

     

    Song of the Year

    1. Leave the Door Open- Silk Sonic

    2. drivers license- Olivia Rodrigo

    3. Your Power- Billie Eilish

    4. Damage- H.E.R.

    5. Starting Over- Chris Stapleton

    6. Pick Up Your Feelings- Jazmine Sullivan

    7. Willow- Taylor Swift

    8. Montero(Call Me By Your Name)- Lil Nas X

     

    Best New Artist

    1. Olivia Rodrigo

    2. The Kid Laroi

    3. Arlo Parks

    4. Little Simz

    5. Saweetie

    6. Maneskin

    7. Clairo

    8. Polo G

     

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    Boz
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    Even if Lana del Rey made top 8, she was very much a #7-8 pick. Taylor, Lizzo, Billie, Ariana, and Gary Clark Jr were very much obviously ahead of her due to either popularity or just winning multiple awards, and I could see the argument for Vampire Weekend and Lady Gaga/ASIB being ahead as well.

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    Anna Artdeco
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    NFR (album and title track) are absolutely gorgeous. I really doubt it was a pure committee pick but even if it was, it’s a strong argument in favour of the committees. They finally did something right. It’s a much better pick than any of the other songs above it by popular (pop) vote. Hell, I’d even say title track would’ve been a worthy SOTY winner.

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    ciguanaba
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    The problem with Kacey’s cross over or rather attempt to cross over is that it’s just not believable and she’s not getting the hits. Frankly she looks absurd trying to be a pop star.

    And yes, NFR! should’ve won SOTY particularly over Bad Guy. Also agree with the user above posting about This Land and I would also say that Harmony Hall (VW) was higher than NFR! in the top 20.

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