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2022 Grammy Award Nomination Predictions (Part 16)

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    Kai
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    #1204487015

    24k Magic? Get Lucky?

    He’s going to reply shouting “FEMALE” dance songs, as if female artists haven’t dominated the Grammys in the past decade.

    People need to learn the difference between trends/statistics and coincistats (coincidence statistics)…

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    TomJerry
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    The funny thing is DSN  was never “robbed” or winning ROTY. Lol. It probably wasn’t even 3rd. It didn’t even win Pop Solo.

    Technically, “Savage (Remix)” was the runner-up, since it swept the Rap Categories (Rap Song, Rap Performance).

    Next was “Black Parade” which won R&B Performance. (with Beyoncé also breaking records and winning the most Grammys that night, suggesting hype, etc.)

    In SOTY, “I Can’t Breathe” (a politically charged song) won.

    Meaning, ideally, one song that could’ve beaten “Everything I Wanted” was “Black Parade” but since Beyoncé’s nominations got split, (two nominations in the same category) she lost.

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    Darren
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    I’m not buying Billie winning AOTY just yet, I know she’s beloved but I don’t see her as strong as she was with her debut album

    In my opinion Olivia is the one to beat this Grammy cycle

    Billie is more likely to win than Olivia because voters have historically favored artists/songs/albums that get heavy airplay on alternative radio. There’s a history of it ranging from Alanis Morisette, Green Day, Coldplay, hell even Daft Punk and Outkast winning in main categories.

    I’m not saying that it’s a direct influence on voting, but there’s a pretty clear trend in that direction. Whether that’s because of lots of voters listening to that format, or the musical style lining up with voters’ tastes, or some other reason is anyone’s guess.

    Additionally, we’ve seen from the past two years that Billie is a voter favorite, and the talk of Olivia’s alleged plagiarism (however valid it may be) is, frankly, hurting her image and her credibility.

    She’s obviously winning BNA and has a solid chance to win Pop Solo Performance and Pop Album, but I think she is being wildly overestimated in the big 3.

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    caleidoscopio
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    #1204487117

    I haven’t posted any GF predictions yet, so I’ll give it a try:

    • AOTY:
      • Drake – Certified Lover Boy
      • Billie Eilish – Happier Than Ever
      • Foo Fighters – Medicine At Midnight
      • H.E.R. – Back Of My Mind
      • Kacey Musgraves – star-crossed
      • Olivia Rodrigo – SOUR
      • Chris Stapleton – Starting Over
      • Taylor Swift – evermore
        • Next in line, behind H.E.R.: Kanye West – Donda (late in the ballot, but it’s Kanye)
    • ROTY:
      • Justin Bieber, Daniel Caesar, Giveon – Peaches
      • Cardi B, Megan Thee Stallion – WAP
      • Billie Eilish – Happier Than Ever
      • Foo Fighters – Shame Shame
      • Lil Nas X – MONTERO
      • Olivia Rodrigo – drivers license
      • Ed Sheeran – Bad Habits
      • Silk Sonic – Leave The Door Open
        • Next in line, behind Lil Nas X: H.E.R. – Damage (only cause there were too many non-Pop nominees, but I’m afraid Nas will probably be the shocking snub of the year)
    • SOTY:
      • Bad Habits (Ed Sheeran)
      • Damage (H.E.R.)
      • drivers license (Dua Lipa)
      • Happier Than Ever (Billie Eilish)
      • Leave The Door Open (Silk Sonic)
      • Right On Time (Brandi Carlile)
      • Starting Over (Chris Stapleton)
      • willow (Taylor Swift)
        • Next in line, behind Chris Stapleton: Good Days (SZA) (Had Jacob Collier won AOTY or beat Beyoncé last year, I’d undoubtly predict this)

    FYC:

    Album of the Year: "Call Me If You Get Lost" by Tyler, The Creator
    Record of the Year: "WAP" by Cardi B & Megan Thee Stallion
    Song of the Year: "Good Days" by SZA ft. Jacob Collier

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    Miss Americana
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    Jul 28th, 2020
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    #1204487175

    Billie Eilish is the Front-Runner for AOTY. All the eligible releases are already on the table.

    Keep in mind, no commercial release managed to upset her metascore this season.

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    lipabridgerstwigs
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    #1204487245

    billie won in 2020 because she did a big campaign

    I can think of a few other reasons why she won actually.
    Its also way too early to say she’s not campaigning.

    Emmy award winner Julianne Nicholson

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    naveand24
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    My final predictions (most likely)

    Record of the Year

    • “drivers license” — Olivia Rodrigo
    • “Kiss Me More” — Doja Cat (feat. SZA)
    • “Leave the Door Open” — Silk Sonic [WINNER]
    • “Damage” — H.E.R.
    • “Happier Than Ever” — Billie Eilish
    • “MONTERO (Call Me By Your Name)” — Lil Nas X
    • “Peaches” — Justin Bieber (feat. Daniel Caesar & GIVĒON)
    • “Bad Habits” — Ed Sheeran

    Album of the Year

    • Back of My Mind — H.E.R.
    • Happier Than Ever — Billie Eilish [WINNER]
    • SOUR — Olivia Rodrigo
    • Starting Over — Chris Stapleton
    • Medicine At Midnight — Foo Fighters
    • evermore — Taylor Swift
    • MONTERO — Lil Nas X
    • Certified Lover Boy — Drake

    Song of the Year

    • “Good Days” — SZA
    • “Starting Over” — Chris Stapleton
    • “Leave the Door Open” — Silk Sonic
    • “drivers license” — Olivia Rodrigo [WINNER]
    • “Damage” — H.E.R.
    • “willow” — Taylor Swift
    • “Your Power” — Billie Eilish
    • “Right on Time” — Brandi Carlile

    Best New Artist

    • Olivia Rodrigo [WINNER] 
    • Arlo Parks
    • The Kid LAROI
    • Måneskin
    • Clairo
    • Celeste
    • Gabby Barrett
    • Saweetie
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    epiphany
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    My prediction is AOTY will go to smaller indie acclaim artist or veteran.

    AOTY: St. Vincent/Foo Fighters
    ROTY: Leave The Door Open/drivers license
    SOTY: Leave The Door Open/drivers license
    BNA: Olivia Rodrigo

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    hillslight
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    #1204487557

    I think the plagiarism issue will make Olivia lose SOTY…

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    epiphany
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    This could end up like 2015 Grammy when Sam swept ROTY, SOTY and BNA but losing AOTY to Beck.

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    M
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    Sep 27th, 2017
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    #1204487582

    I wonder how random the AoTY line up will be this year without a committee. Imagine if we have some random nominees like “F*CK LOVE 3+” or smth..

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    Deemy
    Joined:
    Feb 20th, 2015
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    #1204487584

    I wonder how random the AoTY line up will be this year without a committee. Imagine if we have some random nominees like “F*CK LOVE 3+” or smth..

    I don’t think that would be “random”. Kid Laroi is a commercial artist.

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    Anna Artdeco
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    May 1st, 2021
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    How the hell did Billie have zero competition this past year?

    “Female dance has never won ROTY” is such a TERRIBLE excuse. DSN and Say So were seen as pop plain and simple. I promise you there is no “female dance” bias 💀

    “everything i wanted” could’ve easily lost ROTY, especially according to GoldDerby where it was a very distant #3. “Obvious” my ass.

    The Billie underestimating is getting EXTREMELY tiring.

    Female dance is sending me lmao. Y’all are hilarious.

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    M
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    When was the last time a pop album dominated the year as much as SOUR and didn’t win AOTY? I can’t recall any recent examples. (maybe except for Divide which was blocked by the committee)

    The voters tend to favor this type of blockbuster albums. She’s the most likely to win. Billie is the runner-up.

    I’m just hoping Billie wins SOTY somehow if she submits Happier Than Ever. Maybe last year’s winner signals that voters are starting to care about the lyrics in that category.

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