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It doesn’t really tell anything. No one is saying that Mary is going to win in the general field. But I’m pretty confident that whatever votes Mary does get could have an effect on whether or not Beyoncé takes AOTY. Had Mary not been nominated, then I’d be convinced that Beyoncé would suck up all of those votes. And Lizzo has her fans, too.
Again, I’d agree if the album were a bigger deal. But it’s clear that she got those noms because she’s a respected vet+alphabet advantage (GMG missed SOTY cause of this). If she gets R&B votes, it’s a minute group.
With Lizzo, I think you’re relying too much on Phase 1 and neglecting Phase 2 of actual voting (this goes for Oscars and Emmys as well). ADT was a smash but Special has less enthusiastic reviews than Cuz I Love You and a relatively short lived presence commercial-wise. Pop voters arent going for her and neither will R&B voters, if any.
ReplyCopy URL“Hrs & Hrs” just doesn’t feel like a Performance winner when I think about it, though. Especially up against Jazmine, Beyoncé, Mary J. Blige/Anderson.Paak. It’s more likely a Songwriting champ. I do think “Cuff It” will prevail in the end, but Beyoncé has shown that she is beatable in the R&B field. And the R&B voters do what they want to do nowadays.
ReplyCopy URLAgain, I’d agree if the album were a bigger deal. But it’s clear that she got those noms because she’s a respected vet+alphabet advantage (GMG missed SOTY cause of this). If she gets R&B votes, it’s a minute group.
With Lizzo, I think you’re relying too much on Phase 1 and neglecting Phase 2 of actual voting (this goes for Oscars and Emmys as well). ADT was a smash but Special has less enthusiastic reviews than Cuz I Love You and a relatively short lived presence commercial-wise. Pop voters arent going for her and neither will R&B voters, if any.
If she gets R&B votes? She will, whether it’s a big chunk or a small chunk. R&B voters aren’t a monolith. Regardless, Beyoncé needs every vote she can get if she wants AOTY, and I don’t think having Mary J. Blige, Kendrick Lamar and yes, Lizzo, in the mix is a good thing. But we’ll see.
ReplyCopy URL“Hrs & Hrs” just doesn’t feel like a Performance winner when I think about it, though. Especially up against Jazmine, Beyoncé, Mary J. Blige/Anderson.Paak. It’s more likely a Songwriting champ. I do think “Cuff It” will prevail in the end, but Beyoncé has shown that she is beatable in the R&B field. And the R&B voters do what they want to do nowadays.
Hmm, I’d say Hrs would be a good Performance winner anyways though, not like she isn’t singing her ass off. Big hits do tend to do better in Song but that was surely a panel thing.
ReplyCopy URLIf she gets R&B votes? She will, whether it’s a big chunk or a small chunk. Regardless, Beyoncé needs every votes she can get if she wants AOTY, and I don’t think having Mary J. Blige, Kendrick Lamar and yes, Lizzo, is a good thing. But we’ll see.
That actually matters a lot? I-
And can’t do it with Lizzo. She’s 8-10 of people who will actually even care to vote for Special before she is top 5 with any branch.
ReplyCopy URLThat actually matters a lot? I-
And can’t do it with Lizzo. She’s 8-10 of people who will actually even care to vote for Special before she is top 5 with any branch.
I think you’re purposely missing the point. But I’ll state it again… Beyoncé needs every vote she can get. She has lost AOTY three times already, so if her R&B backing was that strong, we wouldn’t even be having this discussion. Furthermore, I’m not going to keep arguing about Lizzo because I don’t really care.
ReplyCopy URLI think you’re purposely missing the point. But I’ll state it again… Beyoncé needs every vote she can get. She has lost AOTY three times already, so if her R&B backing was that strong, we wouldn’t even be having this discussion. Furthermore, I’m not going to keep arguing about Lizzo because I don’t really care.
I get your point. It’s just not very convincing to me, at the moment. “Big or small” isn’t a matter-of-factly asset or demerit. It’s a significant difference. And we’ll just have to agree to disagree regarding Lizzo.
ReplyCopy URLEven though Beyoncé does get great support in the R&B Field. R&B Voters could put their all onto Mary in the R&B Field, knowing they could give her, her due there. I’m pretty sure there are gonna be some voters that’ll vote for Mary over Beyoncé for whatever their reason being.
R&B Performance seems like a tossup but that Anderson.Paak & Mary J Blige combo seems so baity. Paak has won this category twice already. Grammy favorite + A respected legend. That shouldn’t be underestimated.
Lizzo ! Should’ve won Video of the Year. I wished she made into Best Music Video @ the Grammys too.
ReplyCopy URLI’m pretty sure there are gonna be some voters that’ll vote for Mary over Beyoncé for whatever their reason being.
Thanks for understanding my point.
And also to the point about Soul Train Awards vs Grammys, three of her other AOTY wins at the former lost at the latter. That’s why every vote counts and having Mary, Kendrick and Lizzo in the same mix can spell trouble for Beyoncé.
ReplyCopy URLChris Brown might surprise in R&B Album. He’s probably 2nd to Mary. But I wouldn’t underestimate the support he has within the industry.
R&B Song winners tend to be “big hits” in a sense (a pure R&B song that peaked in the top 20 on the Hot 100), so I wouldn’t count “Hrs & Hrs” out there either. I feel like “Cuff It” is blowing up at the right time, so that should be the frontrunner.
I think it’s between those two.
ReplyCopy URLNot convinced Chris Brown is second to Mary J. Blige. Robert Glasper, Lucky Daye and PJ Morton are all recent winners in the R&B field, so they all have their supporters. For example, Lucky Daye just won Progressive R&B Album last year and managed to get into Performance over Chris Brown. PJ Morton also upset Chris Brown in R&B Song when “No Guidance” won big at the Soul Train Awards, and he is up for R&B Song again. And Robert Glasper has had sort of a dominance since last decade. He wins randomly. Mary should be pretty safe in R&B Album with those general field nods and she is officially the “legend” of the field.
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