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This is probably the toughest category to predict. These nominees are so weak that any of them can win. I’m going to rule out Courtney Barnett and Tori Kelly since they didn’t make much noise. Meghan Trainor by far had the most successful year. However, she underperformed in nominations and Trainor doesn’t fit the mold of previous winners. This race is down to James Bay and Sam Hunt. Bay received the most nominations, but Hunt sold well and will prevail by a hair.
SHOULD WIN: Sam Hunt
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WILL WIN: Sam HuntThe true dark horse is Courtney Barnett. She has huge industry support and is extremely well respected. Her and James Bay could cancel each other out along with Meghan Trainor and Tori Kelly. This leaves Sam Hunt as the one that will come away with the win and fortunately it’s quite deserved.
ReplyCopy URLI’m going with James Bay. I didn’t really realize that he got those rock nominations, which indicated that they really like him.
Meghan Trainor could win it, since she got those ROTY and SOTY nominations, but I feel like she may be too lightweight to win this. Plus, I could see some of her potential voters going for Tori Kelly instead (I don’t see her winning either). Her not landing some key pop nominations makes me wonder if the Grammys are even in love with her and she just managed to make it passed the committee.
We’ve had Esperanza win this category, but that’s probably because the other four nominees were evenly matched about time the votes went in, so that allowed for an upset. That could happen for Courtney Bartlett, but I doubt it.
Sam Hunt is someone I could also see taking it from everyone. His country support seems to be huge and he’s pretty likable.
I rank them like this:
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1. James Bay
2. Sam Hunt
3. Meghan Trainor
4. Tori Kelly
5. Courtney BartlettJust had my first listen of Courtney Barnett. She’s a peculiar one, and nothing like this category has ever nominated before. That’s exciting, at least. The songs I’ve heard were a jumbled mess, but her perspective and tone are both intriguing and refreshing. The best song I’ve heard from her so far is called “Dead Fox.” It’s thrillingly subversive and comedic. She reminds me of a young, Australian PJ Harvey. I wonder how voters ever thought of her to begin with. I’d have nominated Hozier over her though, who really should be here for his great debut, or a few others. There’s far more worth to his album than “Take Me to Church.” I’d agree that the race is between Sam Hunt and James Bay. Meghan Trainor is the one I’m rooting for the most here, but for now, it seems like she’s only a BRP confection (she would have and should have been an easy nominee in Pop Vocal Album for “Title”; far more worth to her than just “All About That Bass” as both a performer and songwriter). It seems like something else needed to be there there for her to really have a stake in this race. I’d love to see her pull off the win, and maybe it can still happen. Tori Kelly should see this acknowledgment as a “job well done” and strive to return with better work in the future. Sam Hunt underperformed in nominations. “Take Your Time” should have been easy gets in both Country Solo Performance and Country Song. James Bay, on the other hand, somewhat overperformed with nods in Rock Album and Rock Song for “Hold Back the River.” I guess I’ll go with James Bay FTW, but this category feels seriously lacking with no Hozier, Andra Day, Leon Bridges, Walk the Moon, FKA Twigs, Elle King, Tove Lo, Lianne la Havas, Tinashe, Zella Day, Highly Suspect, and on and on.
WILL WIN: James Bay
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SHOULD WIN: Hozi . . . Meghan Trainor
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