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Que the “GET REAL! Drake is so winning Best Rap Album” by Gucci. J/k
Drake is up for AOTY and has the biggest album in contention. AOTY nominee has never lost Rap Album, unless it lost to another AOTY nominee. So that makes Drake the frontrunner and my prediction to win.
But I don’t think it’s an easy cakewalk for him, and I can see him being the first artist to lose Rap Album with an AOTY nomination. The album was a big success, but it had mediocre reviews and is seen as his worst album by many dedicated fans. He’ll likely get the “pop” vote, so that should still help him to win.
As far as his competition here, he’s up against a Grammy heavyweight with 8 nominations and a new critically acclaimed rapper with 7 nominations of his own. The competition isn’t as weak as it was back when he won for Take Care. You can automatically eliminated DJ Khaled, De La Soul and Schoolboy Q (someone I think we should watch out for in future Grammy discussions). They’re not competitive enough to win.
Kanye West can definitely pull off the upset. He’s only lost Rap Album once and has a huge following with voters. He has been slipping away with Grammy voters, but he obviously still has support from Grammy voters. I would not be surprised if Kanye won over Drake.
Don’t underestimate Chance The Rapper. He has campaigned heavily this season. From his Kit Kat commercials, to his Grammy consideration ads, to his recent SNL performance, this guy is really thirsty for Grammy glory. His album has made nearly every critics list, and it also helped the industry embraced the “streaming-only” narrative. Do not be surprised if he is the Kacey Musgraves of the rap field and wins.
I don’t believe Drake is a lock for every rap category, but I won’t deny his frontrunner status.
He’s my prediction to win.
ReplyCopy URLScHoolboy Q and DJ Khaled are not in the running. De La Soul are veterans and all, but that’s not enough. Kanye West has won this category four times. He should never be underestimated. Voters have not been rewarding West as of lately. Chance the Rapper has a lot of critical acclaim and he seems to really want a Grammy. Chance lacks commercial success. Drake will sweep the entire Rap field.
Commercial Success + Popularity = A Rap Grammy
SHOULD WIN: Drake, Views
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WILL WIN: Drake, Views
ReplyCopy URLScHoolboy Q and DJ Khaled are not in the running. De La Soul are veterans and all, but that’s not enough. Kanye West has won this category four times. He should never be underestimated. Voters have not been rewarding West as of lately. Chance the Rapper has a lot of critical acclaim and he seems to really want a Grammy. Chance lacks commercial success. Drake will sweep the entire Rap field.
Commercial Success + Popularity = A Rap Grammy
SHOULD WIN: Drake, Views
WILL WIN: Drake, ViewsThis category is literally one of the easiest to predict. Chance, in all honesty, has the best album of the bunch, but only two things matter here:
1. most commercially successful nominee
2. Album of the Year nominationFor the last 15 years, the winner in this category has either had one or both of the above. And the only times an AOTY nominee has lost (Nelly, Missy Elliott, Kendrick Lamar), it was to another AOTY nominee that same year (Eminem, Outkast, Macklemore & Ryan Lewis).
It is for both of those reasons that Drake’s Views will win.
ReplyCopy URLShould win: Coloring Book
Will win: Views
I think for a critical darling like Chance’s Coloring Book to win, it needs to also have commercial success. See “College Dropout,” “Stankonia” or “Good Kid Maad City.” Coloring Book is my favorite rap album of the year, but it didn’t explode on the charts like it should have and wasn’t part of the industry conversation the way “The Heist” or “To Pimp A Butterfly” was. I think Drake wins this easily.
ReplyCopy URLShould win: Coloring Book
Will win: Views
I think for a critical darling like Chance’s Coloring Book to win, it needs to also have commercial success. See “College Dropout,” “Stankonia” or “Good Kid Maad City.” Coloring Book is my favorite rap album of the year, but it didn’t explode on the charts like it should have and wasn’t part of the industry conversation the way “The Heist” or “To Pimp A Butterfly” was. I think Drake wins this easily.
BUT Chance’s success could be excused since it was and remains a streaming exclusive. I would argue that it has been in the industry conversation, it made history as the first streaming exclusive album to debut on the BB200 and top ten at that.
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