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Grammys 2023 Predictions (Part 3)

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    Anna Artdeco
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    May 1st, 2021
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    #1204959820

    I think it depends tho, Harry took a 2 and a half year break of not releasing anything. Kendrick released the Black Panther soundtrack in 2018 so it’s not that big of a difference. I think what’s important is staying in people’s consciousness without being overbearing (because then you become overexposed and that’s probably worse than being forgotten)

    It’s complicated to navigate, but I don’t necessarily think churning out music is the only way to accomplish staying relevant. For instance, Ariana, who was mentioned in this example, was in The Voice and will be in Wicked, so I’m not sure it would affect her that much. But not every artist wants to do side gigs and it’s perfectly valid to just want to do music. It’s complicated for sure.

    Watermelon Sugar was still smashing towards 2020 end and 2021 beginning and then he won at the Grammys so he was still kinda on everyone’s radar. Unironically, his queerbaiting allegations also kept him fairly popular on Twitter and tiktok. Black Panther soundtrack also came out four years ago and I think soundtracks are treated vastly differently then studio albums so Kendrick’s break was really long. Same thing happened with Drake too btw. He’s not had a global smash hit in a while.

    Ultimately, I do think it’s on a case by case basis but there’s some incriminating evidence for longer breaks not being a very good strategy in the streaming era.

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    Anna Artdeco
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    #1204959827

    About Ariana, I’m a huge fan so I’m all for her taking a break from releasing music (she worked extremely hard the last three years) and she seems very excited about her Wicked role but I’m definitely nervous about her music comeback. I personally think The Voice did more damage than good. Her twitter interactions went down the drain and anyone who’s seen it, know how messy and polarising she was as a judge. I’m glad she only did one season.

    But my biggest gripe is that positions was coming after tun and everyone wanted to hear what she had to say so the era did fairly well despite having no promo and a couple of performances but I don’t think the situation will be the same for AG7. Generally albums do well if they’re coming after a huge smash but not so well if the last album was lukewarm or only lasted a couple of months. I really hope both her Wicked Soundtrack and her next album get the promo and radio deals they deserve.

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    RichardAniston
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    May 23rd, 2013
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    #1204959907

    AOTY is between Kendrick and Adele. Can’t see anyone else winning this year.

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    Melodies
    Joined:
    Nov 2nd, 2020
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    #1204960054

    Watermelon Sugar was still smashing towards 2020 end and 2021 beginning and then he won at the Grammys so he was still kinda on everyone’s radar. Unironically, his queerbaiting allegations also kept him fairly popular on Twitter and tiktok. Black Panther soundtrack also came out four years ago and I think soundtracks are treated vastly differently then studio albums so Kendrick’s break was really long. Same thing happened with Drake too btw. He’s not had a global smash hit in a while. Ultimately, I do think it’s on a case by case basis but there’s some incriminating evidence for longer breaks not being a very good strategy in the streaming era.

    I really don’t think anyone was talking about queerbaiting allegations in the GP, that’s a stan twitter thing, and even then, that was completely irrelevant by early 2021. I think news about his acting career and his tour is what kept him relevant.

    I agree about it not being a good strategy generally. I think, perhaps, that a good balance of staying in the public eye but also giving people time to miss your output is the best way to go about it. Not necessarily releasing every year, but releasing and doing stuff to keep yourself on the news until your next release.

    Ultimately it’s probably exhausting to have to think about all this on top of actually creating and it kinda sucks that the environment is so unhelpful for artists who just want to do their own thing.

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    alex.g
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    Sep 20th, 2017
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    #1204960058

    top 10 lists: #3 folklore, #16 30
    Quality winning with critics.

    The Grammys don’t care about acclaim (or quality) that much.

    There have been a couple of acclaimed winners over the last decade or so, e.g. Arcade Fire in AOTY in 2011, but using acclaim as a guide is no better at predicting Grammy wins than rolling a dice.

    You could pick more of the winners by betting on the best known blonde person with a chance of a win, e.g. Taylor Swift, Adele and Beck account for six of the AOTY wins for solo artists since 2010. Edit: is Billie also a natural blonde?

    Industry connections might be a more important indicator and for a non American artists like Harry or Adele, you probably need the sales, preferably a big selling single.

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    Brayfers
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    #1204960223

    Ariana has been making hit songs since 2013 and She’s one of the biggest pop stars in the world. She will be just fine.

    Letterboxd: Brayfers

    Multi-Grammy Winning Artist - Olivia Rodrigo

    !! EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE - OUT NOW !!

    FYC:
    - Squid Game
    - Severance
    - This Is Us
    - Stranger Things
    - Reservation Dogs

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    Munchi
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    May 24th, 2021
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    #1204960271

    Swift & Adele both sell big, put efforts into their music, yet make interesting music, demonstrate artistry and are easily recognisable for ratings etc.

    They both have significant portions of everything. Neither committees, organisers nor voters will easily justify not considering them when eligible.

    Being white improves their marketabilities and appeal to conservative voters but dismissing their efforts and primarily attributing their achievements to being blonde is next-level insulting.

    Plethora of popular blondes like Britney, Christina, Kesha, Pink etc haven’t got an AOTY, even Gaga lost her best shot yet.

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    Rich Thot
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    Apr 17th, 2020
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    #1204960491

    It’s not just about voters. Being white and bland looking has helped their general appeal and sales in general. That in turn has also assisted them with awards. We all know it’s not as simple as race. There are many elements to both big sales and winning big awards. And it is insulting to lean on race to sum up their achievements. But it’s definitely a piece of the puzzle. Let’s not pretend it isn’t.

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    Monet Tejada
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    #1204960497

    It depends on the artist, the competition and the year. Mariah Carey had the sales and general appeal look (and maybe even more crossover appeal), but was never really that big of a Grammy favorite. I guess you can say “blandness” and whiteness of Adele and Taylor have helped them tremendously, but we’ve seen other artists like them fail to garner as many prestigious awards and accolades. Gaga cleaned up her image and became blander overtime. She still hasn’t garnered any general field wins. In the end, the voters are industry folk, and they like who they like.

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    Rich Thot
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    #1204960533

    “Rolling In The Deep” would not have had the overwhelmingly wide-ranging genre and demo appeal that it did if Adele were black. Taylor wouldn’t be able to switch from extremes of country, to pop, to pseudo folk indie and still sell tons of records and win plenty of awards if she weren’t white. Also, it’s not just about being white, it’s a certain type of white, a certain type of image, a certain type of music.

    As I said, the system and success and awards is way more nuanced than just someone being black or white. Race is however a part of the game.

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    Monet Tejada
    Joined:
    Sep 27th, 2011
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    #1204960548

    With all of that being said, I think the Grammys are moving in the right direction, slowly but surely. Changing up the format every so often has helped several black artists in recent history. Childish Gambino, Jon Batiste, H.E.R. and Megan The Stallion have benefited from multiple changes at NARAS. I’m not sure that we should be expecting a full on change, though. I don’t see it benefiting Lil Baby, Polo G, etc. if it hasn’t Kanye West or Kendrick (yet). I do think if any hip hop wins big again in the general field (outside of New Artist), it would be Kendrick.

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    Deemy
    Joined:
    Feb 20th, 2015
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    #1204960566

    The Weeknd should suck it up and submit his album this year. Dawn FM is solid. If he misses Pop Vocal Album so be it. If he submits I think we will have the strongest lineup this decade.

    30
    Harry’s House
    =
    Dawn FM
    Special
    Music of the Spheres

    This is a very British heavy lineup.

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    Lorenzo Dillard
    Joined:
    Oct 4th, 2021
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    #1204960589

    About Ariana, I’m a huge fan so I’m all for her taking a break from releasing music (she worked extremely hard the last three years) and she seems very excited about her Wicked role but I’m definitely nervous about her music comeback. I personally think The Voice did more damage than good. Her twitter interactions went down the drain and anyone who’s seen it, know how messy and polarising she was as a judge. I’m glad she only did one season. But my biggest gripe is that positions was coming after tun and everyone wanted to hear what she had to say so the era did fairly well despite having no promo and a couple of performances but I don’t think the situation will be the same for AG7. Generally albums do well if they’re coming after a huge smash but not so well if the last album was lukewarm or only lasted a couple of months. I really hope both her Wicked Soundtrack and her next album get the promo and radio deals they deserve.

    Ariana will be fine. A break is what she needed. Drake & Justin Bieber should follow suit.

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    strangemercy
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    Oct 28th, 2020
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    #1204960980

    Who is everyone predicting for AOTY? Besides the obvious picks like Harry, Adele, Kendrick, Brandi, and Silk Sonic.

    I really think Coldplay could get in. Ed is also very likely to, but I guess he could (and should) end up just in BPVA. Rooting for a MOTOMAMI nom!

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    Bridgers13
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    Aug 24th, 2020
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    #1204961020

    Who is everyone predicting for AOTY? Besides the obvious picks like Harry, Adele, Kendrick, Brandi, and Silk Sonic.

    Besides those 5, I have Lizzo, Arcade Fire, Coldplay, ABBA and Alisson Krauss & Robert Plant. But I think I’ll end up switching one of the last two for Bad Bunny/Ed Sheeran.

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