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Grammys 2023 Predictions (Part 4)

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    #1204987185
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    strangemercy
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    Adele releases November because her strength lies in physical copies which sell better in Q4 due to Thanksgiving/Christmas/New Year rush.

    Oh, that’s true!

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    Boz
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    Brandi still lost all of her nominations last year vs Jon winning five, including AOTY. “Stronger” my ass.

    And Jon had never won a Grammy before last year? Also that argument falls when you look at Jon’s wins:
    -BMV, where Brandi wasn’t nominated
    -Americana Song, where he would’ve likely lost to “Right On Time”
    -Americana Performance, where he would’ve likely lost to “Right On Time”
    -Score, where Brandi wasn’t even eligible
    -Album of the Year, where Brandi wasn’t even eligible.

    Brandi Carlile is a proven Grammy favorite and has shown she can get nominated pretty much everywhere she wants to. She has also amassed six Grammys and none of them are irrelevant categories like Best Original Score or Best Music Video. She is factually more liked than Batiste.

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    xohours
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    #1204987225

    Drake will barely make a dent to this race since Rap will mainly lean to Kendrick, unless he’s able to pull a Take Care 2.0 w this new album

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    Moment 4 Life
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    Technically not actually relevant until the 2024 Grammys, but I wonder which major releases we’ll get in Q4 this year considering so many major names have dropped already or will be dropping in the summer? There’s always major albums every Q4, last year we had Adele as the major one as well as Silk Sonic, Brandi and critically successful albums from the likes of Summer Walker & Ed Sheeran.

    We could get Renaissance Act 2 in Q4 as the major release, I’m also kind of expecting Taylor to drop either Speak Now TV or 1989 TV in October/November. Maybe Olivia’s sophomore album around then too?

    I think a Q4 release could be beneficial for SZA compared to a summer one, although who knows if we will even get an album at all from her. Maybe Cardi in Q4 too?

    I can’t see it happening, but imagine if we also got Rihanna & Frank this year? It would literally be one of the biggest years for music ever…

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    Moment 4 Life
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    Drake will barely make a dent to this race since Rap will mainly lean to Kendrick, unless he’s able to pull a Take Care 2.0 w this new album

    There’s rumors that it’s house/dance influenced which is interesting.

    He probably won’t even submit to the Grammys, considering the fact he withdrew his CLB-related nominations last year. Could’ve been a good line up though with the likes of Kendrick, Drake, Pusha T, Future & Nas all for contention in album. Kendrick will be winning either way though, I cannot see him losing.

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    Mother Dináh
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    Something tells me Beyoncé will submit in Best Pop Vocal Album. Maybe it’s what she needs to finally win AOTY.

    Her possible submissions:

    • AOTY – RENAISSANCE ACT I
    • BPVA – RENAISSANCE ACT I
    • ROTY – TBD 1
    • SOTY – TBD 1
    • BPSP – TBD 1
    • BMV – TBD 1
    • R&B Performance – Be Alive
    • R&B Song – Be Alive
    • BSWFVM – Be Alive
    • BPD/GP – TBD 2
    • Dance/Electronic Recording – TBD 3
    • Melodic Rap Performance – TBD 4
    • Rap Song – TBD 4
    • Country Solo (or Duo/Group) Performance – TBD 5
    • Country Song – TBD 5

    And her actual nominations

    • AOTY – RENAISSANCE ACT I
    • BPVA – RENAISSANCE ACT I
    • ROTY – TBD 1
    • SOTY – TBD 1
    • BPSP – TBD 1
    • BMV – TBD 1
    • R&B Performance – Be Alive
    • R&B Song – Be Alive
    • BSWFVM – Be Alive
    • BPD/GP – TBD 2
    • maybe something with JAY in Melodic Rap just so she can tie Kendrick & Jon
    • Dance Recording for MJ’s record

    But I 100% think she’ll get at least 9 nominations for a whopping FOURTH time in her career.

     

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    Monet Tejada
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    And Jon had never won a Grammy before last year? Also that argument falls when you look at Jon’s wins:
    -BMV, where Brandi wasn’t nominated
    -Americana Song, where he would’ve likely lost to “Right On Time”
    -Americana Performance, where he would’ve likely lost to “Right On Time”
    -Score, where Brandi wasn’t even eligible
    -Album of the Year, where Brandi wasn’t even eligible.

    Brandi Carlile is a proven Grammy favorite and has shown she can get nominated pretty much everywhere she wants to. She has also amassed six Grammys and none of them are irrelevant categories like Best Original Score or Best Music Video. She is factually more liked than Batiste.

    All of Brandi wins are in the Americana and Country fields. Jon beat a Brandi Carlile feature in the Americana field. Jon has won in the general field and has beaten artists bigger than him in Music Video, and “Freedom” was probably in the top three in ROTY. There is ZERO proof that an also-ran like Brandi Carlile is stronger than him. There is proof that Jon Batiste has appealed to more branches and has had a bigger night than Brandi Carlile. But keep up with these long paragraphs and exaggerations, though.

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    Moment 4 Life
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    If Renaissance Act 2 drops for the 2024 eligibility period, can you see a situation where they give Adele the win for this cycle and Beyoncé next time?

    It’s actually insane to think that Adele, Kendrick & Silk Sonic all could’ve easily won AOTY in any other year. It’s a shame Kendrick will most likely not win since he’s going up against Bey.

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    Mary
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    #1204987257

    Drake probably won’t submit his new album for any nominations because if he were to do that, he would withdraw them.

    Since Beyoncé is releasing, I’m starting to think that Adele isn’t going to win AOTY.

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    JasonLannister
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    OK – this beyoncé announcement is the first time this period i’m thinking adele may not win. one too many competitors, i think using adele’s previous success as evidence that she will win again doesn’t make sense for 2 main reasons: 1. neither 21 nor 25 faced so many massive albums from massive artists 2. 21 and 25 were both far more relevant & popular. 30 is my personal favourite adele album but i cannot deny it has been absent since before christmas i totally agree that i can see where all the commercial acts, including adele, split votes and this leads to a brandi (or an even less commercial act) win

    No one is beating Adele. The main reason to that is the fact she’s one of a few artists that have universal appeal: to your 8 years old brother to your 80 years old gramma, they all enjoy Adele. Just an example, her CBS especial had more than 10 million viewers, that’s more than all award shows.

    And I have to say, she has never been so necessary. When she released it was such a breath of fresh air. Billboard TOP 10 don’t stop getting worst.

    I have no doubt Adele will be a third time AOTY winner.

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    M
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    #1204987268

    This will probably be the year Beyoncé wins AOTY if the album does well.

    Adele is not nearly as undeniable as she as with 21 and 22. Her album unfortunately failed to spawn a second hit.

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    xohours
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    #1204987316

    30 may not have been as big as 21 nor 25, but there’s no denying that come nomination & voting day, voters would still go Gaga over Adele mainly b/c she continues to play it safe in her lane of her continuous appeal and reach and she’d likely be the obvious choice to pick should there come a time to choose b/t a record of the same field

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    Ziggiy
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    Technically not actually relevant until the 2024 Grammys, but I wonder which major releases we’ll get in Q4 this year considering so many major names have dropped already or will be dropping in the summer? There’s always major albums every Q4, last year we had Adele as the major one as well as Silk Sonic, Brandi and critically successful albums from the likes of Summer Walker & Ed Sheeran. We could get Renaissance Act 2 in Q4 as the major release, I’m also kind of expecting Taylor to drop either Speak Now TV or 1989 TV in October/November. Maybe Olivia’s sophomore album around then too? I think a Q4 release could be beneficial for SZA compared to a summer one, although who knows if we will even get an album at all from her. Maybe Cardi in Q4 too? I can’t see it happening, but imagine if we also got Rihanna & Frank this year? It would literally be one of the biggest years for music ever…

     

    Its been awhile since Jay-Z dropped. I wouldn’t put it past him & Beyonce to have it set up where she drops in the Summer and tours and he drops in the Fall and tours and then they link up for an On The Run 3 tour in 2023.

     

    I know you mentioned SZA. With Kendrick having officially left TDE, it would behoove the label to prove that they can  “survive” on a mainstream level with their flagship once-in-a-generation artist having bounced. Having a SZA album ready SOMETIME this year would make all the sense in the world to kick off the Kendrick-less era of the imprint.

    I also think new Donald Glover AKA Childish Gambino music could be on the horizon. With Atlanta having finished filming seasons 3 & 4 and it looking like he’s winding down with the first season of Mr & Mrs Smith; I could see him potentially having a project ready for the Winter. He’s stated he likes releasing albums in the Winter and his two biggest albums selling albums were both winter releases.

     

     

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    Boz
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    All of Brandi wins are in the Americana and Country fields. Jon beat a Brandi Carlile feature in the Americana field. Jon has won in the general field and has beaten artists bigger than him in Music Video, and “Freedom” was probably in the top three in ROTY. There is ZERO proof that an also-ran like Brandi Carlile is stronger than him. There is proof that Jon Batiste has appealed to more branches and has had a bigger night than Brandi Carlile. But keep up with these long paragraphs and exaggerations, though.

    1) Jon beating a Brandi feature nobody has heard of is irrelevant. Right On Time – which made both GF categories and a competitive genre one – would have easily beaten Jon twice.
    2) Americana and Country are real genres. A Grammy for Best Score is not comparable. And again, we already established Jon’s Americana win was specifically because Brandi was moved to Pop.
    3) There is zero proof that Freedom was top 3 for ROTY. A big reason Jon won AOTY was cuz he appealed to a lot of voting blocks that were not represented in AOTY like R&B, Classical, and American Roots. With Silk Sonic and Brandi Carlile ik the mix, I highly doubt Freedom was even top 5. His win was clearly just the result of both vote-splitting and appealing to multiple blocks, not actual passion. Otherwise he would’ve taken something in the R&B field.
    3) Even if you still believe Jon Batiste is a bigger Grammy favorite than Brandi Carlile, that still means next to nothing for the convo this year. As we said, Brandi will get a lot of support from three major branches, ignoring casual fans in Pop. In a year with so many A-listers probably splitting, she can easily scoop support to win.

    TLDR Y’all are pushing this narrative than Jon Batiste is a Grammy darling when that’s just not the case. He had 0 wins prior to this year, while Brandi has been a consistent top nominee and winner since 2019. It’s also unfair to say he’s more beloved because he won 5 Grammys last year when Brandi had stronger competition EVERYWHERE, and wasn’t nominated/eligible in the two categories where Jon had actual competition.

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