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Grammys 2023 Predictions (Part 6)

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    Lorenzo Dillard
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    Personally I think “Enemy” is the frontrunner. “Bruno” is both forgotten and also a children’s song, “My Universe” was a fad, and “Sweetest Pie” tanked. Imagine Dragons have gotten pop nods before and “Enemy” is arguably the second biggest eligible after “Bruno”, if it hasn’t surpassed that yet.

    In which universe is “Bruno” forgotten?

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    Mother Dináh
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    I think by this time Ghost is already well forgotten.

    It is but so was Yummy lmao

    Justin’s ballot position is enough for him to sneak into the top 6 of BPSP any time, only to never win.

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    Munchi
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    I think Silk Sonic should submit “Fly As Me” to Pop Duo/Group. They will easily win.

    Lowkey crossed my mind too. But I wonder what the ceremony would look like if Adele & SS end up grabbing the categories most fans are interested in.

    If Columbia would allow a remix of Late Night Talking, Harry would be guaranteed a win.

    He’s nailed this era so much that his victory would yield such jubilation that followed Doja’s. Would be cool to have another refreshing moment like that.

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    Boz
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    In which universe is “Bruno” forgotten?

    Well considering it has been off the charts for a good amount of weeks now, in this one.

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    syrus80
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    If the Solo categories were still by gender, Harry would be the Pop Male front runner. Where can he win that Adele won’t be nominated? I don’t even care for Harry like that!

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    Watermelon Sugar
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    Harry can win Best Pop Solo Performance. As It Was is a bigger hit than Easy On Me.

    30 and Easy On Me feel forgotten

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    Anna Artdeco
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    “As it was” isn’t a much bigger hit than “Easy on Me”. As far as I remember, both of them spent 10 weeks at #1 with Harry having a slight lead over Adele in streaming.

    Either way, they’re both the defining songs of this eligibility period and huge hits in their own right so it’s gonna come down to likability, artist’s individual appeal and cross genre appeal when it comes to voting. Which are obviously tilted towards Adele.

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    Munchi
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    As It Was is looking to become a bigger hit indeed but EOM still has more cumulative US chart points.

    However “can win” is one thing, “is likelier to win” is another.

    I need at least one category where Harry has the highest odds of winning among all contenders.

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    Goldwing
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    It is but so was Yummy lmao Justin’s ballot position is enough for him to sneak into the top 6 of BPSP any time, only to never win.

    Yummy had an album to fall back on and the singles Justin released during the first voting period. Now that Justin is on tour and on musical hiatus he is not a priority in the industry.

    Hi.

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    James Gibson
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    Justin’s label been campaigning him early on with industry publications for the past 3 years. I remember huge Justice posters in HDD in like june last year. They make sure his face is seen and I’m certain his collaborators or supporters from the grammy board are led to check his name in nomination round. Since that phase doesnt have a lot of votes its easy to get a top 6.

    I don’t see it being any different this year.

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    James Gibson
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    Oh and it’s not only alphabetical advantage, Peaches got a SOTY nom last year. He has an active core of supporters backing him that gets enough for a nomiantion but too far to win.

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    xohours
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    Harry isn’t touching Adele in the Pop categories

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    Melodies
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    “As it was” isn’t a much bigger hit than “Easy on Me”. As far as I remember, both of them spent 10 weeks at #1 with Harry having a slight lead over Adele in streaming. Either way, they’re both the defining songs of this eligibility period and huge hits in their own right so it’s gonna come down to likability, artist’s individual appeal and cross genre appeal when it comes to voting. Which are obviously tilted towards Adele.

    I wouldn’t call it “slight”

    -As It Was is at 1.040 billion streams, song came out in April 2022, and Easy On Me still hasn’t crossed 1 billion, song came out in October 2021. That is a HUGE lead on streaming.

    -Easy On Me is 3x Platinum, certified a month ago, As It Was was got 2x Platinum at around the same time, remember… the song came out 6 months later. And that’s with EOM having better sales the first few weeks.

    -As It Was chart run so far: 1 – 2 – 1 – 1 – 2 – 2 – 2 – 1 – 1 – 1 – 1 – 2 – 1 – 1 – 1 – 2 – 2 (10 weeks #1, 7 weeks #2)

    -Easy On Me chart run (not counting early debut): 1 – 1 – 1 – 1 – 2 – 1 – 1 – 1 – 3 – 5 – 2 – 1 – 1 – 1 – 2 – 2 – 3 (10 weeks #1, 4 weeks #2, 2 weeks #3, 1 week #5)

    -As It Was will likely end up above Easy On Me in the year end chart, unless it starts bombing now. EOM currently has 6,153 points and since it isn’t charting, it’s not adding any new points. As It Was has 5,199 and added 245 points this week, fourteen weeks to go. This is counting all of Easy On Me’s run since the last week of November 2021. As It Was wouldn’t come out until 4/5 months later. That’s 15 weeks disadvantage to accumulate points.

    – As It Was is also a bigger hit worldwide. Easy On Me reached #1 in 24 countries. As It Was reached #1 in 33. Easy On Me reached top 10 in 14 additional countries. As It Was reached top 10 in 20 additional countries. All in all, Easy On Me charted in 55 countries. All in all, As It Was charted in 59 countries.

    -As It Was was #1 for 10 weeks in the UK, Easy On Me for 8. Easy On Me was top 10 for 13 weeks total in the UK. As It Was hasn’t dropped off top 3 yet (17 weeks).

    -As It Was also reached #1 in France, a better position in Spain, has better certifications in Italy and Germany, all of the big western European countries. It’s a huge hit in Greece and Netherlands where it barely left #1 since it came out.

    None of it means it will beat Easy On Me at the Grammys. Because Adele is Adele. It has a 1% chance of beating it, imo. But it’s not a “minor difference” As It Was is WAY WAY bigger than Easy On Me.

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    Anna Artdeco
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    I wouldn’t call it “slight”

    -As It Was is at 1.040 billion streams, song came out in April 2022, and Easy On Me still hasn’t crossed 1 billion, song came out in October 2021. That is a HUGE lead on streaming.

    -Easy On Me is 3x Platinum, certified a month ago, As It Was was got 2x Platinum at around the same time, remember… the song came out 6 months later. And that’s with EOM having better sales the first few weeks.

    -As It Was chart run so far: 1 – 2 – 1 – 1 – 2 – 2 – 2 – 1 – 1 – 1 – 1 – 2 – 1 – 1 – 1 – 2 – 2 (10 weeks #1, 7 weeks #2)

    -Easy On Me chart run (not counting early debut): 1 – 1 – 1 – 1 – 2 – 1 – 1 – 1 – 3 – 5 – 2 – 1 – 1 – 1 – 2 – 2 – 3 (10 weeks #1, 4 weeks #2, 2 weeks #3, 1 week #5)

    -As It Was will likely end up above Easy On Me in the year end chart, unless it starts bombing now. EOM currently has 6,153 points and since it isn’t charting, it’s not adding any new points. As It Was has 5,199 and added 245 points this week, fourteen weeks to go. This is counting all of Easy On Me’s run since the last week of November 2021. As It Was wouldn’t come out until 4/5 months later. That’s 15 weeks disadvantage to accumulate points.

    – As It Was is also a bigger hit worldwide. Easy On Me reached #1 in 24 countries. As It Was reached #1 in 33. Easy On Me reached top 10 in 14 additional countries. As It Was reached top 10 in 20 additional countries. All in all, Easy On Me charted in 55 countries. All in all, As It Was charted in 59 countries.

    -As It Was was #1 for 10 weeks in the UK, Easy On Me for 8. Easy On Me was top 10 for 13 weeks total in the UK. As It Was hasn’t dropped off top 3 yet (17 weeks).

    -As It Was also reached #1 in France, a better position in Spain, has better certifications in Italy and Germany, all of the big western European countries. It’s a huge hit in Greece and Netherlands where it barely left #1 since it came out.

    None of it means it will beat Easy On Me at the Grammys. Because Adele is Adele. It has a 1% chance of beating it, imo. But it’s not a “minor difference” As It Was is WAY WAY bigger than Easy On Me.

    Worldwide doesn’t really matter at the Grammys but fair enough, just by chart metrics alone “As it was” does seem like the bigger hit.

    But do people care about specifics like this? Like has it ever mattered if a song spent 3 weeks at #2 or 4 weeks? I don’t think so. Voters will certainly not. Casual listeners would probably think they’re about equally huge. Also, EOM was more frontloaded than AIW so that explains the difference in streams but the general perception is that it had a bombtastic start.

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    Melodies
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    Worldwide doesn’t really matter at the Grammys but fair enough, just by chart metrics alone “As it was” does seem like the bigger hit. But do people care about specifics like this? Like has it ever mattered if a song spent 3 weeks at #2 or 4 weeks? I don’t think so. Voters will certainly not. Casual listeners would probably think they’re about equally huge. Also, EOM was more frontloaded than AIW so that explains the difference in streams but the general perception is that it had a bombtastic start.

    I literally said it won’t affect the Grammy performance, just that it’s a way bigger hit.

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