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I see a lot of people saying things like “there’s no way Tony/Gaga can win ROTY” whilst predicting them for AOTY; or people predicting one of “Happier Than Ever”, “Leave The Door Open”, or “drivers license” to win ROTY, while one of the other 2 wins SOTY… but there’s 2 VERY important stats that should be noted:
Firstly, ROTY/SOTY have NOT split since the start of the committee era (1996). And “split” in this case means a true split of both individually winning songs being in both categories (i.e. last year’s win of “everything i wanted” in ROTY and “I Can’t Breathe” in SOTY isn’t a split, because “I Can’t Breathe” wasn’t nominated in ROTY). Clearly, voters don’t really make a differentiation between ROTY and SOTY, and just vote for the same songs. Therefore, it would not make a lot of sense for “Happier Than Ever” to win ROTY, but then lose SOTY to “drivers license”, or vice-versa. There is 26 years of this stat being true, so it is pretty solid.
Secondly, only ONCE since the start of the committee era (1996) has someone won AOTY over another artist, but then lost to that same artist in one of (or both) ROTY or SOTY. This happened in 2010 when Taylor Swift’s Fearless won AOTY over Beyoncé’s I Am… Sasha Fierce, but then “You Belong With Me” lost SOTY to “Single Ladies”. This occurring one time out of 26 years does mean it’s possible, but the odds aren’t in its favour. Therefore, Love For Sale winning AOTY over Sour, but then “drivers license” beating “I Get a Kick Out of You” in ROTY would not be the most logical prediction.
Once again, these stats have been going STRONG since the start of the committee era, but one can say with the committee era being over they can falter. I’d contest saying that it wouldn’t make an impact as these are stats relating to winners, not nominees, which the committee never decided.
ReplyCopy URLI see a lot of people saying things like “there’s no way Tony/Gaga can win ROTY” whilst predicting them for AOTY; or people predicting one of “Happier Than Ever”, “Leave The Door Open”, or “drivers license” to win ROTY, while one of the other 2 wins SOTY… but there’s 2 VERY important stats that should be noted:
Firstly, ROTY/SOTY have NOT split since the start of the committee era (1996). And “split” in this case means a true split of both individually winning songs being in both categories (i.e. last year’s win of “everything i wanted” in ROTY and “I Can’t Breathe” in SOTY isn’t a split, because “I Can’t Breathe” wasn’t nominated in ROTY). Clearly, voters don’t really make a differentiation between ROTY and SOTY, and just vote for the same songs. Therefore, it would not make a lot of sense for “Happier Than Ever” to win ROTY, but then lose SOTY to “drivers license”, or vice-versa. There is 26 years of this stat being true, so it is pretty solid.
Secondly, only ONCE since the start of the committee era (1996) has someone won AOTY over another artist, but then lost to that same artist in one of (or both) ROTY or SOTY. This happened in 2010 when Taylor Swift’s Fearless won AOTY over Beyoncé’s I Am… Sasha Fierce, but then “You Belong With Me” lost SOTY to “Single Ladies”. This occurring one time out of 26 years does mean it’s possible, but the odds aren’t in its favour. Therefore, Love For Sale winning AOTY over Sour, but then “drivers license” beating “I Get a Kick Out of You” in ROTY would not be the most logical prediction.
Once again, these stats have been going STRONG since the start of the committee era, but one can say with the committee era being over they can falter. I’d contest saying that it wouldn’t make an impact as these are stats relating to winners, not nominees, which the committee never decided.
Pretty much. The splits predictions kinda make no sense.
I think these are the possible, logical scenarios:
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a: Billie wins AOTY, LTDO wins R/SOTY
b: Billie wins AOTY, ROTY, SOTY
c: Tony wins AOTY, LTDO wins R/SOTY
d: Tony wins AOTY and ROTY, LTDO wins SOTY
e: Tony wins AOTY and ROTY, HTE wins SOTY
f: Tony wins AOTY and ROTY, DL wins SOTY
g: Olivia wins AOTY, ROTY, SOTY
h: Olivia wins AOTY, LTDO wins R/SOTYFrom Grammy history, the most likely scenario would be a sweep of the big three categories, or maybe Tony taking AOTY and ROTY, with SOTY going to Olivia, Billie or maybe someone not in AOTY like Brandi Carlile.
The betting odds seem to be a little different, with AOTY and SOTY clearly going to Olivia and Tony getting ROTY.
https://sportsbetting.legal/news/2022-grammy-betting-odds-olivia-rodrigo-could-sweep/
AOTY: Olivia Rodrigo – Sour -110
ROTY: Tony Bennett & Lady Gaga – I Get A Kick Out Of You +180
SOTY: Olivia Rodrigo – Drivers License -130
BNA: Olivia Rodrigo -700Outside of ROTY, Olivia has negative odds. If you haven’t already placed your bets on Olivia in those categories, it might be too late.
ReplyCopy URLPretty much. The splits predictions kinda make no sense.
I think these are the possible, logical scenarios:
a: Billie wins AOTY, LTDO wins R/SOTY
b: Billie wins AOTY, ROTY, SOTY
c: Tony wins AOTY, LTDO wins R/SOTY
d: Tony wins AOTY and ROTY, LTDO wins SOTY
e: Tony wins AOTY and ROTY, HTE wins SOTY
f: Tony wins AOTY and ROTY, DL wins SOTY
g: Olivia wins AOTY, ROTY, SOTY
h: Olivia wins AOTY, LTDO wins R/SOTYAnother scenario is Olivia takes Album, Billie takes Record and Song.
ReplyCopy URLAnother scenario is Olivia takes Album, Billie takes Record and Song.
The point is that only once in the past 26 years has the GF split between people nominated for both awards. If Olivia takes AOTY, she’s likely to take R/SOTY and vice versa (unless she loses to Silk Sonic who aren’t nominated in AOTY). I do think your scenario is possible, but if we go by the stats, it’s unlikely.
ReplyCopy URLI see a lot of people saying things like “there’s no way Tony/Gaga can win ROTY” whilst predicting them for AOTY; or people predicting one of “Happier Than Ever”, “Leave The Door Open”, or “drivers license” to win ROTY, while one of the other 2 wins SOTY… but there’s 2 VERY important stats that should be noted:
Firstly, ROTY/SOTY have NOT split since the start of the committee era (1996). And “split” in this case means a true split of both individually winning songs being in both categories (i.e. last year’s win of “everything i wanted” in ROTY and “I Can’t Breathe” in SOTY isn’t a split, because “I Can’t Breathe” wasn’t nominated in ROTY). Clearly, voters don’t really make a differentiation between ROTY and SOTY, and just vote for the same songs. Therefore, it would not make a lot of sense for “Happier Than Ever” to win ROTY, but then lose SOTY to “drivers license”, or vice-versa. There is 26 years of this stat being true, so it is pretty solid.
Secondly, only ONCE since the start of the committee era (1996) has someone won AOTY over another artist, but then lost to that same artist in one of (or both) ROTY or SOTY. This happened in 2010 when Taylor Swift’s Fearless won AOTY over Beyoncé’s I Am… Sasha Fierce, but then “You Belong With Me” lost SOTY to “Single Ladies”. This occurring one time out of 26 years does mean it’s possible, but the odds aren’t in its favour. Therefore, Love For Sale winning AOTY over Sour, but then “drivers license” beating “I Get a Kick Out of You” in ROTY would not be the most logical prediction.
Once again, these stats have been going STRONG since the start of the committee era, but one can say with the committee era being over they can falter. I’d contest saying that it wouldn’t make an impact as these are stats relating to winners, not nominees, which the committee never decided.
I think with the committee not there to dictate nominations and arguably wins since they had the power to block potential winners, we will see more trends. I would look into voting patterns between 1984-1994
ReplyCopy URLI think with the committee not there to dictate nominations and arguably wins since they had the power to block potential winners, we will see more trends. I would look into voting patterns between 1984-1994
R/SOTY split 4 times evenly between 1984 and 1995. However, I would argue that was more because voters actually seemed to care about the difference between Song and Record, and probably some vote splitting I guess. It’s still important that it hasn’t happened in almost 30 years, committee or not.
ReplyCopy URLI believe the reason Record and Song of the Year have become more synonymous is because artists more often have songwriting credits on their songs, making the awards seem more similar, because the artist receives both. For example, 14 SOTY nominees between 1985-1995, the recording artist did not have a songwriting credit, compared to only 1 SOTY nominee from 2012-2022.
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