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Record of the Year
ABBA, I STILL HAVE FAITH IN YOU
Jon Batiste, FREEDOM
Tony Bennett, Lady Gaga, I GET A KICK OUT OF YOU
Justin Bieber featuring Daniel Caesar and Giveon, PEACHES
Brandi Carlile, RIGHT ON TIME
Doja Cat featuring SZA, KISS ME MORE
Billie Eilish, HAPPIER THAN EVER
Lil Nas X, MONTERO (CALL ME BY YOUR NAME)
Olivia Rodrigo, DRIVERS LICENSE
Silk Sonic, LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN
  • Profile picture
    Kai
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    Oct 26th, 2019
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    #1204838150

    I see a lot of people saying things like “there’s no way Tony/Gaga can win ROTY” whilst predicting them for AOTY; or people predicting one of “Happier Than Ever”, “Leave The Door Open”, or “drivers license” to win ROTY, while one of the other 2 wins SOTY… but there’s 2 VERY important stats that should be noted:

    Firstly, ROTY/SOTY have NOT split since the start of the committee era (1996). And “split” in this case means a true split of both individually winning songs being in both categories (i.e. last year’s win of “everything i wanted” in ROTY and “I Can’t Breathe” in SOTY isn’t a split, because “I Can’t Breathe” wasn’t nominated in ROTY). Clearly, voters don’t really make a differentiation between ROTY and SOTY, and just vote for the same songs. Therefore, it would not make a lot of sense for “Happier Than Ever” to win ROTY, but then lose SOTY to “drivers license”, or vice-versa. There is 26 years of this stat being true, so it is pretty solid.

    Secondly, only ONCE since the start of the committee era (1996) has someone won AOTY over another artist, but then lost to that same artist in one of (or both) ROTY or SOTY. This happened in 2010 when Taylor Swift’s Fearless won AOTY over Beyoncé’s I Am… Sasha Fierce, but then “You Belong With Me” lost SOTY to “Single Ladies”. This occurring one time out of 26 years does mean it’s possible, but the odds aren’t in its favour. Therefore, Love For Sale winning AOTY over Sour, but then “drivers license” beating “I Get a Kick Out of You” in ROTY would not be the most logical prediction.

    Once again, these stats have been going STRONG since the start of the committee era, but one can say with the committee era being over they can falter. I’d contest saying that it wouldn’t make an impact as these are stats relating to winners, not nominees, which the committee never decided.

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    Boz
    Joined:
    Jan 19th, 2020
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    #1204838170

    I see a lot of people saying things like “there’s no way Tony/Gaga can win ROTY” whilst predicting them for AOTY; or people predicting one of “Happier Than Ever”, “Leave The Door Open”, or “drivers license” to win ROTY, while one of the other 2 wins SOTY… but there’s 2 VERY important stats that should be noted:

    Firstly, ROTY/SOTY have NOT split since the start of the committee era (1996). And “split” in this case means a true split of both individually winning songs being in both categories (i.e. last year’s win of “everything i wanted” in ROTY and “I Can’t Breathe” in SOTY isn’t a split, because “I Can’t Breathe” wasn’t nominated in ROTY). Clearly, voters don’t really make a differentiation between ROTY and SOTY, and just vote for the same songs. Therefore, it would not make a lot of sense for “Happier Than Ever” to win ROTY, but then lose SOTY to “drivers license”, or vice-versa. There is 26 years of this stat being true, so it is pretty solid.

    Secondly, only ONCE since the start of the committee era (1996) has someone won AOTY over another artist, but then lost to that same artist in one of (or both) ROTY or SOTY. This happened in 2010 when Taylor Swift’s Fearless won AOTY over Beyoncé’s I Am… Sasha Fierce, but then “You Belong With Me” lost SOTY to “Single Ladies”. This occurring one time out of 26 years does mean it’s possible, but the odds aren’t in its favour. Therefore, Love For Sale winning AOTY over Sour, but then “drivers license” beating “I Get a Kick Out of You” in ROTY would not be the most logical prediction.

    Once again, these stats have been going STRONG since the start of the committee era, but one can say with the committee era being over they can falter. I’d contest saying that it wouldn’t make an impact as these are stats relating to winners, not nominees, which the committee never decided.

    Pretty much. The splits predictions kinda make no sense.

    I think these are the possible, logical scenarios:
    a: Billie wins AOTY, LTDO wins R/SOTY
    b: Billie wins AOTY, ROTY, SOTY
    c: Tony wins AOTY, LTDO wins R/SOTY
    d: Tony wins AOTY and ROTY, LTDO wins SOTY
    e: Tony wins AOTY and ROTY, HTE wins SOTY
    f: Tony wins AOTY and ROTY, DL wins SOTY
    g: Olivia wins AOTY, ROTY, SOTY
    h: Olivia wins AOTY, LTDO wins R/SOTY

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    Boz
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    #1204838438

    Also possible scenario i: Tony wins AOTY, DL wins ROTY, SOTY

    That would break the stat.

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    alex.g
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    Sep 20th, 2017
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    #1204838594

    From Grammy history, the most likely scenario would be a sweep of the big three categories, or maybe Tony taking AOTY and ROTY, with SOTY going to Olivia, Billie or maybe someone not in AOTY like Brandi Carlile.

    The betting odds seem to be a little different, with AOTY and SOTY clearly going to Olivia and Tony getting ROTY.

    https://sportsbetting.legal/news/2022-grammy-betting-odds-olivia-rodrigo-could-sweep/

    AOTY: Olivia Rodrigo – Sour -110
    ROTY: Tony Bennett & Lady Gaga – I Get A Kick Out Of You +180
    SOTY: Olivia Rodrigo – Drivers License -130
    BNA: Olivia Rodrigo -700

    Outside of ROTY, Olivia has negative odds. If you haven’t already placed your bets on Olivia in those categories, it might be too late.

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    alex.g
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    Sep 20th, 2017
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    #1204838618

    Those betting odds posted above might be slightly out of date.
    From SportsBetting.ag we have:

    AOTY: Olivia Rodrigo – Sour +125
    ROTY: Olivia Rodrigo – drivers license +200
    SOTY: drivers license – Olivia Rodrigo -200
    BNA: Olivia Rodrigo -1000

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    Matt2019
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    Jan 4th, 2015
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    #1204838661

    Pretty much. The splits predictions kinda make no sense.

    I think these are the possible, logical scenarios:
    a: Billie wins AOTY, LTDO wins R/SOTY
    b: Billie wins AOTY, ROTY, SOTY
    c: Tony wins AOTY, LTDO wins R/SOTY
    d: Tony wins AOTY and ROTY, LTDO wins SOTY
    e: Tony wins AOTY and ROTY, HTE wins SOTY
    f: Tony wins AOTY and ROTY, DL wins SOTY
    g: Olivia wins AOTY, ROTY, SOTY
    h: Olivia wins AOTY, LTDO wins R/SOTY

    Another scenario is Olivia takes Album, Billie takes Record and Song.

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    Carlos Luis Turmero
    Joined:
    Jun 23rd, 2014
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    #1204838698

    I don’t know about you guys, but I have Olivia winning Best New Artist and Song of the Year.
    Leave the Door Open for ROTY and Love for Sale winning AOTY

    I’m going against the odds, but I don’t care

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    Boz
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    #1204838702

    Another scenario is Olivia takes Album, Billie takes Record and Song.

    The point is that only once in the past 26 years has the GF split between people nominated for both awards. If Olivia takes AOTY, she’s likely to take R/SOTY and vice versa (unless she loses to Silk Sonic who aren’t nominated in AOTY). I do think your scenario is possible, but if we go by the stats, it’s unlikely.

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    Deemy
    Joined:
    Feb 20th, 2015
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    #1204839234

    I see a lot of people saying things like “there’s no way Tony/Gaga can win ROTY” whilst predicting them for AOTY; or people predicting one of “Happier Than Ever”, “Leave The Door Open”, or “drivers license” to win ROTY, while one of the other 2 wins SOTY… but there’s 2 VERY important stats that should be noted:

    Firstly, ROTY/SOTY have NOT split since the start of the committee era (1996). And “split” in this case means a true split of both individually winning songs being in both categories (i.e. last year’s win of “everything i wanted” in ROTY and “I Can’t Breathe” in SOTY isn’t a split, because “I Can’t Breathe” wasn’t nominated in ROTY). Clearly, voters don’t really make a differentiation between ROTY and SOTY, and just vote for the same songs. Therefore, it would not make a lot of sense for “Happier Than Ever” to win ROTY, but then lose SOTY to “drivers license”, or vice-versa. There is 26 years of this stat being true, so it is pretty solid.

    Secondly, only ONCE since the start of the committee era (1996) has someone won AOTY over another artist, but then lost to that same artist in one of (or both) ROTY or SOTY. This happened in 2010 when Taylor Swift’s Fearless won AOTY over Beyoncé’s I Am… Sasha Fierce, but then “You Belong With Me” lost SOTY to “Single Ladies”. This occurring one time out of 26 years does mean it’s possible, but the odds aren’t in its favour. Therefore, Love For Sale winning AOTY over Sour, but then “drivers license” beating “I Get a Kick Out of You” in ROTY would not be the most logical prediction.

    Once again, these stats have been going STRONG since the start of the committee era, but one can say with the committee era being over they can falter. I’d contest saying that it wouldn’t make an impact as these are stats relating to winners, not nominees, which the committee never decided.

    I think with the committee not there to dictate nominations and arguably wins since they had the power to block potential winners, we will see more trends. I would look into voting patterns between 1984-1994

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    Boz
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    #1204839319

    I think with the committee not there to dictate nominations and arguably wins since they had the power to block potential winners, we will see more trends. I would look into voting patterns between 1984-1994

    R/SOTY split 4 times evenly between 1984 and 1995. However, I would argue that was more because voters actually seemed to care about the difference between Song and Record, and probably some vote splitting I guess. It’s still important that it hasn’t happened in almost 30 years, committee or not.

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    Mother Dináh
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    Jun 29th, 2019
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    #1204841004

    One of the few scenarios where I think a split would be possible would be if Brandi Carlile won ROTY and lost SOTY. Since she’s double nominated, it’s possible.

    Not happening, but it’s the most plausible split I can think of right now.

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    Gagamon
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    Nov 5th, 2015
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    #1204841618

    It might be:
    TonyGaga winning AOTY and ROTY
    Olivia Rodrigo winning SOTY and BNA

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    Atypical
    Joined:
    Dec 1st, 2011
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    #1204841661

    It might be:
    TonyGaga winning AOTY and ROTY
    Olivia Rodrigo winning SOTY and BNA

    Very possible. New trends will start to emerge post-BRP, starting next month.

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    CheChe70
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    Oct 7th, 2020
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    #1204841977

    I believe the reason Record and Song of the Year have become more synonymous is because artists more often have songwriting credits on their songs, making the awards seem more similar, because the artist receives both. For example, 14 SOTY nominees between 1985-1995, the recording artist did not have a songwriting credit, compared to only 1 SOTY nominee from 2012-2022.

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    Korbel Clinton
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    Apr 25th, 2016
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    #1204853129

    I would be content with Billie or Olivia winning one of the big 3 at LEAST

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