November 18, 2013 at 12:47 pm #546227
Of the last 10 Best Director winners (minus Clint Eastwood and Ang Lee, who have already won Best Director twice), who do you think is most likely to take home a second Best Director Oscar?November 18, 2013 at 12:53 pm #546229
I’d be surprised if the Coens don’t win at least one more time.
Scorsese could get another as well.November 18, 2013 at 1:44 pm #546230
This is mainly an elimination exercise. Soderbergh doesn’t seem to be that interested in movies any more and the academy was never that big on him as much as they were on individual films he has done (he never had a follow-up nom to Traffic). Controversy all but assures Polanski never wins again. Jackson is too fantasy-driven. Hopper has developed too much of a bad reputation to repeat. Boyle really looks like a one time thing since it’s unlikely he’ll ever reach the acclaim and popularity and perfect timing of Slumdog.
So who we have left here is: Bigelow, Coens, Hazanavicius, Howard and Scorsese. My feeling is that being a woman will probably not help Bigelow win again. She stands a chance at repeating with she ever gets a new Hurt Lock/Zero Dark Thirty, but it will be tough. Hazanavicius is too recent to be able to tell. For all we know he could end up forgotten and a bust after a few films, or he could become a new acclaimed academy-friendly lasting director. Howard seems to have had his best days in the 90’s and early aughts, and he’d need a serious comeback to get in again. So it’s between the Coens and Scorsese.
The Coens look good on paper. BUT having four Oscars already could get in their way. So I have to go with Scorsese. maty is someone that, given the right timing, could really become a factor in the following years.
If I were to rank their chances at winning again, I think it would be like this:
10. PolanskiNovember 18, 2013 at 4:27 pm #546231
^^^ I agree regarding the Coens. Having four Oscars will be a detriment to winning this category again. It seems like these days there’s a limit to how many Oscars “name people” can win. Sometimes the techies can escape with around 5 Oscars (Dennis Muren, Richard Taylor, etc.), but it’s much harder for talent (and John Williams). It’s still unbelievable that Walt Disney managed to win 22 times.
I’d like to see Scorsese win a second Oscar. And to think they could’ve given it to him for Hugo against a weak field. Well, everyone knows he’s the most significant contributor to American cinema still working—they couldn’t give him enough Oscars for his body of work and preservation efforts.
I’d also like to see Kathryn Bigelow recognized again, especially after the hell she went through last year. I’m really interested in what she will do next. Will it be another war-related film? Will she reteam with Mark Boal? Will she cross genres, but still keep the story similarities that connect her films?
Of earlier decades, I’d love to see someone like Jonathan Demme return or Francis Ford Coppola, who had the most extraordinary decade of filmmaking, directing and writing, I’ve ever seen.
One other point: could we see someone join the three-time winners club? Not sure I’d like to see Spielberg be that person, he may be done winning unless the right project comes up. Ang Lee has the distinct position of never having won Best Picture, which might make it easier for him, though maybe that could lead to a split the other way, Picture/Director. My bet is Lee is done winning, as is Clint Eastwood and Woody Allen (who may be seen as having been justly rewarded). I’d kind of like to see Oliver Stone return for a nomination.November 18, 2013 at 5:00 pm #546232
The only director who might come back for a third win is probably Spielberg. I don’t see either Lee or Eastwood doing it.November 18, 2013 at 7:09 pm #546233
As long as he’s able to put out at least one movie every other year for the next decade Scorcese seems like an inevitable victor.
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