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14 Emmy experts now making bold predictions at Gold Derby

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  • Guest2014
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    #1202084449

    I question the validity of your ‘experts’ when they do not mention either The Good Place in Comedy Series or Kristen Bell in Comedy Series Actress.  Obviously none of them even bothered to watch the show.

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    leothescorpio
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    #1202084454

    Neither did any other awards/guild group. Why would it pop up at the Emmys with no precursors? :/

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    Anonymous
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    forwardswill
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    #1202084477

    I question the validity of your ‘experts’ when they do not mention either The Good Place in Comedy Series or Kristen Bell in Comedy Series Actress. Obviously none of them even bothered to watch the show.

    Just like the Emmy voters.

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    Pulp
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    #1202084502

    I absolutely loved the Good Place, but it’s probably not getting any nominations.

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    GusCruz
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    #1202084506

    What makes some of them experts? Peter Travers has never been a legitimate film critic — but Rolling Stone decided to call him that anyway. Now Goldderby decided he also has expertise on tv and film awards.

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    Riley
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    #1202115556

    The Experts have This is Us at #2 and the senior Editors have it at #1. Both groups have Chrissy Metz at #1 (plus Sterling K. Brown at #1 and Ron Cephas Jones at #4).

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    Eden
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    #1202115558

    The Experts have This is Us at #2 and the senior Editors have it at #1. Both groups have Chrissy Metz at #1 (plus Sterling K. Brown at #1 and Ron Cephas Jones at #4).

    For me, both the show and the cast are overestimated for the Emmys.

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    leothescorpio
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    #1202115595

    Yeah, I love This Is Us, but when I watch these slugfests and some of them say “This Is Us could win!” I just roll my eyes. It would be such a weak winner IMO.

    I have Brown in third now because he’s hot property right now and that semi-standing ovation at the Emmys last year is still in my head.

    Metz is not a standout at all. I kinda like to compare her to Kerry Washington. Both have limited acting chops, but the magnitude of the roles they play sort of justify a nomination at least. But there’s been at least 11 female supporting performers this year that has displayed more award-worthy work than Metz. (Woodard, Brenneman, Ryder, Tierney, Alisha Boe, Dowd, Hinds, Seehorn, Chaikin, Bellamy Young and of course future Emmy winner Thandie Newton)

    I currently have Jones at #1 by default because I think The Crown is trash and I don’t want that show to win anything. But also Jones has had a standout arc and performance particularly in “Memphis”.

    Overall its my guilty pleasure but its way too glossy to win Drama Series. I’d prefer something more topical, timely or well rounded to win Drama Series. The fact that the overall odds has it above The Americans and The Leftovers is just confirmation that these experts, just like Jon Snow, know nothing.

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    jacob121
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    #1202115627

    The Experts have This is Us at #2 and the senior Editors have it at #1. Both groups have Chrissy Metz at #1 (plus Sterling K. Brown at #1 and Ron Cephas Jones at #4).

    And in all of the slugfests, they offer no justification as to why, suddenly, the academy would be willing to embrace a broadcast drama as their top pick when they haven’t even nominated one in years. I was going through past winners attempting to find the last time a similar show (broadcast family drama) won best drama series and the best I could find was thirtysomething…in 1988. I’m reluctantly coming around to the idea that it might get a nomination but no chance in hell it wins.

    Metz as a #1 choice is also bizarre. She does not fit the model established by last year’s winners under the new voting system. Rami, Tatiana, Louie Anderson – these people were acting standouts/critical favorites that won because of a passionate group of support. The other type of winner we saw was JLD/Smith – beloved vets. How does Metz fit into either of those categories? Of course, there’s the Ben Mendehlson mystery but I think we can all safely assume his win was for his critically praised work in season one. Who is raving about Metz’s performance? No one I’ve seen or read, even among This Is Us fans. That is, of course, if she even gets nominated which I am not confident she will. I don’t have her in my lineup.

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    AWDubay
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    #1202115639

    While i dont agree with some of the experts … where is the fun if they all pick the same five nominees for everything … you got to root for something outside the box or this is all for nothing and why are we even talking or debating anything ???

    Andrewsart.etsy.com

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    Riley
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    #1202115751

    That is not the issue. They are not rooting for something out of the box. They are making questionable assumptions about what is inside.

    In the Tom/Pete videos and in the Tom/Paul/Marcus/Daniel videos, they pose these questions among others:
    1. Will The Crown or This is Us win?
    2. Will Stranger Things and Westworld get nominated?

    Before taking into account statistics and precursors and all of that, I take issue with treating The Crown and This is Us as default frontrunners. It is not 1990. There is this idea that the pundits have that these two are classic Emmy bait, but classic Emmy bait does not work at the Emmys anymore. Classic Emmy bait has been stumbling in recent years. Boardwalk Empire and House of Cards never amounted to much after big names won for directing their pilots. In the drama categories, Downton Abbey only won for Maggie Smith above the line. The Good Wife was pretty much limited to acting nominations. Billions was shut out. Vinyl got only a few technical nominations. We are in an age now where the ultimate Emmy bait is apparently a serialized fantasy epic; it won twenty-four times in the last two years.

    Then there is this idea that the Emmys might not go for Stranger Things and Westworld. Look, whenever you have a new show, genre or not, there is that question. But that question expires when we get the answer. They say in the videos how the PGA and SAG wins for Stranger Things put it on the map, which is unfair. A Critics’ Choice win puts a show on the map. A Golden Globe puts a show on the map. A win from PGA or SAG is way past that point. A PGA or SAG win is actual Emmy voters telling us how they intend to vote at the Emmys, all things being equal.

    The guilds are opinion polls of voters. If a show gets nominated by like all of them and then variably wins, how is there any question whether voters will respond to that show? There has never been a drama nominated for PGA/DGA/WGA/SAG Ensemble and snubbed at the Emmys, which have historically had only five slots. Plus they got nominated by the broader below-the-line guilds like ACE and CAS (and several more), indicating widespread support. These two are as locked as can be for nominations.

    Despite all of this, people dismiss the guilds. Whatever, you do you. But Stranger Things and Westworld have also been nominated in the series categories by the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice and the Satellite Awards. The only Best Drama Series lists that have left off Stranger Things and/or Westworld in the last year are the predictions of various pundits here.

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    Anonymous
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    Stretchy
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    #1202115854

    Yeah I’ve given up on those chats and slugfests cuz they’re just weird. Riley, I noticed you haven’t popped up in any of those yet, will you be doing one soon?

    Whoop diddy scoop!

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    AwardsConnect
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    #1202115863

    I actually agree with Metz as the front-runner, barring Margo Martindale surfacing there and prevailing yet again.

    OSCAR FLASHBACK: 20 Years of Streep (2008) – Doubt

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