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2018 Emmy Predictions Movie and Limited Series

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  • Riley
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    #1202532667

    May 6 in Australia, but May 25 in America.

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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    VeraDoyle
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    Do we know if Fahrenheit 451 is even going to be any good?

    Critically-acclaimed director Ramin Bahrani is at the helm. Every single one of his films has been received positively. It stars Michael B. Jordan, who has proven his dramatic chops in the likes of Fruitville Station and Creed and who has proven having a strong Hollywood-screen presence, as witnessed in this year’s Black Panther, now one of the highest grossing films of all-time. The project also stars Academy Award-nominee Michael Shannon, who was THIS CLOSE to getting nominated for the last project he worked on with Bahrani (99 Homes… he scored Golden Globe and SAG noms). AND… this project is based on an award-winning literary classic and is being produced by HBO. There’s a lot going for this TV movie even before having been screened. I think a lot of people are underestimating this one. UPDATE: Just announced that this has been selected to be screened at the Cannes Film Festival.

    I understand that there is a certain push for POC actors (I do push people like Sandra Oh as well) in the business right now, but people overestimate Michael B. Jordan’s reputation around here. He has a good chance to be great one day, but his filmography isn’t that prestigious or iconic as you guys would suggest. I especially liked his FS performance, but he doesn’t really have any kind of a narrative to make Emmy lineups by “name recognition” alone. The Black Panther buzz will definitely work in his favor, but other than that, he has to also deliver a good performance in a worthy project to be in the conversation.

    If Riz Ahmed could win Michael B Jordan should easily get a nomination. He should be safe.

    He isn’t safe. We haven’t seen his performance. We have seen Darren Criss’ and he should be safe based on his performance alone and because of the fact he is in a Ryan Murphy show. Riz Ahmed happened after his performance & series were praised, not based on name recognition.

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    Riley
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    Bill Pullman received a Critics’ Choice nomination in lead, is staying on for the second season without Jessica Biel and now he is going supporting (in limited) for the Emmys?  Bullshit.

    Good to see Sharon Stone moved down to supporting though.  The show is a murder mystery and she is the murder victim, so she is basically only in the first episode and a half out of six episodes.  And with Sofia Boutella finally in supporting, I can slot her into my predictions, as I am predicting big things for Fahrenheit 451 and she is in the Julie Christie role.  Riley Keough moving up to lead is unexpected and bizarre.

    The Unsolved split is interesting.  The show is forty percent Josh Duhamel, forty percent Jimmi Simpson and twenty percent Tupac and Biggie, with Duhamel and Simpson sharing only a single scene across the season.  Duhamel is going lead and Simpson is going supporting.  This kind of split is something that we see regularly at the Oscars, but rarely at the Emmys; two-handers like Billions and Grace and Frankie have submitted both leads in lead.

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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    Stegeo
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    Bill Pullman received a Critics’ Choice nomination in lead, is staying on for the second season without Jessica Biel and now he is going supporting (in limited) for the Emmys? Bullshit.

    Lol, those producers are random af. Either way, Pullman is probably not happening, despite low competition, because this is a drama series and he’s the lead in a drama series, not in a limited series. It’s a mess. The show’s only nom will probably be Biel anyways.

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    Anonymous
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    #1202534225

    While watching Paterno I felt Keough was as leading as Pacino so I am happy she’s got moved up.

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    Gabriel
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    While watching Paterno I felt Keough was as leading as Pacino so I am happy she’s got moved up.

    I agree. She’s absolutely co-lead with Pacino imo.

    I’m also glad the lead actress of Mosaic (forget her name) got submitted in Lead. Not that she has much chance, but I liked her nonetheless. I feel like Garrett Hedlund could have gone either way, but I probably would have put him in lead. But again, Mosaic probably won’t get anything, so it doesn’t matter in the end.

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    Riley
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    Garrett Hedlund was the one constant over the course of Mosaic, so I think that lead was the right choice, although even he could have gone supporting.  The main story kind of moved from Sharon Stone and Frederick Weller to Devin Ratray and finally to Jennifer Ferrin, but Hedlund kind of always had the B-story.

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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    Tyler
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    Is The Tale not considered a threat to win best TV Movie? I mean considering a lot of people seem to think U.S.S. Callister is a relatively weak front runner compared to  to San Junipero and Paterno was largely regarded as fine, really only Farenheit 451 is left.

    Considering the Sundance hit The Tale was, I don’t understand why it shouldn’t be a temporary front runner while we wait for Farenheit.

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    Eden
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    Is The Tale not considered a threat to win best TV Movie? I mean considering a lot of people seem to think U.S.S. Callister is a relatively weak front runner compared to to San Junipero and Paterno was largely regarded as fine, really only Farenheit 451 is left. Considering the Sundance hit The Tale was, I don’t understand why it shouldn’t be a temporary front runner while we wait for Farenheit.

    I have it winning. It fits the narrative from last year with shows like The Handmaid’s Tale and Big Little Lies.

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    Gabriel
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    I think The Tale is winning too. It’s timely, well-received, has prestige value and was originally supposed to be an Oscar vehicle. Black Mirror isn’t undeniable this year and doesn’t really need another Emmy thrown its way. Nor does it deserve to have one of its EPISODES winning as a “TV movie”.

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    Riley
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    Black Mirror has reached The Voice status as the perennial default frontrunner.  It had some visibility issues last year, but by now, everyone has seen it and basically everyone has a fond opinion of it.  This season was not as well received as last, but it will take a couple more years for the poorer reception to catch up with it.  Since the last Emmys, it has won awards from BAFTA, PGA, ADG, CAS, CSA and MPSE, having won none of the equivalent awards last year.  It is almost irrelevant what episode they submitted, per Sherlock‘s win for “The Abominable Bride”.  Black Mirror would probably win limited series if it submitted as such, like in the combined PGA category.  Its CSA win was as a drama.

    The Tale‘s best hope is if Fahrenheit 451 tanks or is at least widely viewed as inferior.  There is so much television these days that whatever one-off HBO airs on a random Saturday in the middle of being bombarded with screeners is not really priority viewing.  A significant portion of the academy will not watch any of the movie nominees, so they will vote for Black Mirror by default because they saw some of it at some point.  It is how Sherlock won with its weakest submission against All the Way.  Not everyone saw All the Way and the people who did were not enthused about it enough to vote for it over the Sherlock brand.

    Black Mirror is coming into this race with support from both people who love the show and people who will end up voting for it by default because they did not see the other nominees.  So the challenger needs to be strong—there cannot be two of them.  When all things were equal, HBO was the default choice, but things are not equal now because you have movies that have been out for half a month competing against ongoing series that have been out for half a decade.

    The Tale can win if becomes the official challenger, just as, say, Riz Ahmed took down Robert De Niro with passion votes.  But even if The Tale becomes the official challenger and it has passion, it can lose.  Although passion obviously won out in movie last year, the program categories have generally been less susceptible to this phenomenon.  People were more passionate about Drag Race than ever last year, plus it had more nominations and higher ratings than ever, but it still lost to The Voice, which people had probably never cared less about and was also a bit scandalous because of Mark Burnett’s ties to Trump.  Veep was also seen as having its weakest season since its first, but it still defeated the inventive Atlanta.

    I would also contend that Black Mirror has much more goodwill than Veep or The Voice.  Those shows seemed to have just enough support to win one more time, but Black Mirror cleaned up at the guilds.  When it has been nominated in the last year, it has seemed to win more often than not, regardless of the category, which is something that few programs have ever been able to claim.  Although not as 2018-timely as The Tale, it still has importance and probably has more of the “cool” factor.

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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    Stegeo
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    I’m disappointed that American Crime Story is winning limited series.

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    forwardswill
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    I’m disappointed that American Crime Story is winning limited series.

    Agreed. I didn’t dislike it as much as some but I’m really hopeful that something else that gets in manages to find the momentum. Maybe Patrick Melrose can surprise given that it’s the only contender currently unknown or maybe Godless benefits from a big Netflix push to finally win a series prize or maybe something with intense passion like Twin Peaks or American Vandal. All seem doubtful at the moment but if a consensus forms that Versace is frontrunner just by default then we may get a backlash that will allow one to emerge.

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    Xander Cassel
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    I’m disappointed that American Crime Story is winning limited series.

    Especially considering the weak reviews. I’m hoping Twin Peaks or Godless can pull off an upset and ACS won’t win just by default.

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    Riley
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    Following up on the last page, The Tale is definitely being underrated overall though. I get that it was not in the predictions centre when it opened, but enough time has passed that it should have crept up more. I will specifically call out my buddies who are senior editors. Marcus, Matt, Paul and Tom really should know better than to have it barely scoring a movie nomination. Chris and Rob, shame on you for not having it in your five at all (and feel free to defend yourselves). Chris does have Laura Dern in first though, so that is something. Rob has her below Michelle Dockery; Marcus and Matt also have her below Sarah Paulson; Paul has her below Queen Latifah. Put those fingers back on the pulse! It seems that Joyce has the most sense and her predictions are actually the ones that were updated least recently.

    On another note, National Geographic must have campaigned the shit out of Genius last year to get it double-digit nominations because nobody was talking about it and it only scored 65 on Metacritic. The new season’s 52 on Metacritic will prevent that this year; lead actor would seem to be the ceiling now for nominations in major categories. I have moved Twin Peaks into my series nominations, but am also considering Howards End, Little Women and American Vandal.

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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