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2018 Emmys Main Ceremony: Which upsets should we all look out for?

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  • Luca Giliberti
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    #1202628497

    I am honestly creating this topic because I am a bit lost in some categories. I said multiple times now that I will be going with what my gut says, but currently it is saying:

    • Actress: Claire Foy
    • Actor: Matt Smith or Joseph Fiennes
    • Supp. Actress: Yvonne Strahovski
    • Directing: Alan Taylor
    • Limited Supp. Actor: Edgar Ramirez

    Except for Strahovski, I don’t have any one of these predicted to win.

    Who do you think could upset?

    Luca G.

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    Teridax
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    #1202628500

    I still refuse to rule out Tatiana Maslany, call me crazy. I’m keeping her in 3rd behind Moss and Foy. I also think Dixon seems more likely to upset than Ramirez, I just wish Wittrock were more of a contender, he was way more emotionally impactful than Ramirez.

    Also, Equanimity winning Pre-Recorded Variety Special and the below-the-line love for Genius: Picasso convinced me those Indiewire questionnaires were real, so @riley if you don’t mind, could you please re-post the totals of those and the Vulture polls in this thread, just as refresher for me and anyone else who doubted them previously? If so, thank you!

    I think with the exception of Writing a clean sweep by The Crown in all other categories is possible, but I wonder if that is the “Crown fever” getting to me. The suggestion it could win Series sometimes feels like stan hysteria but on the other hand that Casting win was as massive as it was unexpected. What if Strahovski wins, Dinklage of course wins his 3rd, but Foy wins by herself for Lead Actress while Rhys finally wins his 1st for The Americans’ final season. Do those 4 sound like a likely outcome for the main Drama acting races?

    For your Goldderby Film Awards consideration: Isle of Dogs for every category, especially Music Score for Alexandre Desplat!

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    Teridax
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    #1202628506

    Right now, the 5 categories I feel the least confident in for the main Primetime Emmy ceremony are, ranked from hardest to least difficult:

    1. Mulaney (Do I just be a sheep and blankly predict Samantha Bee even though her Puerto Rico special got barely any buzz unlike her acclaimed Not The White House Correspondents Dinner which won this category for her previously?)

    2. Borstein (Maybe Beetz takes it and Altanta sweeps all 4 acting categories, doing what I had once thought The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel would be most likely to do. Maybe McKinnon is the 3rd repeat winner in main acting categories besides Glover and Moss. Maybe even Mullally takes it in spite of her show having greatly under-performed due to Will and Grace having won multiple awards when I thought it would get shut out. Maybe a lot of things, too many to think about.)

    3. Atlanta (Comedy Series will be a head-scratcher for me right up until the very end.)

    4. Dixon (Could be Ramirez, maybe there is enough passion for Wittrock, Daniels possibly but unlikely after how Godless basically bombed at Creative Arts, this category is ridiculously tough.)

    5. Podeswa (Does Daldry take it after all since The Crown won Casting?)

    For your Goldderby Film Awards consideration: Isle of Dogs for every category, especially Music Score for Alexandre Desplat!

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    forwardswill
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    #1202628507

    I still refuse to rule out Tatiana Maslany, call me crazy. I’m keeping her in 3rd behind Moss and Foy.

    I’m the same. Although frankly I’m wary of anyone in that category apart from Evan Rachel Wood. Whenever we have a situation when a repeat winner seems safe despite passion for them being less than it has been, I’m always looking for an upset. It’s how Maslany won in the first place after all.

    What if Strahovski wins, Dinklage of course wins his 3rd, but Foy wins by herself for Lead Actress while Rhys finally wins

    I don’t see a situation where THT has enough passion to overcome triple vote-splitting in Supporting Actress but not enough to get Moss a win in Lead. In this way I think Strahovski is tied to Moss in a way that Kirby is not to Foy. Supporting Actor is the category I continue to be confused by. Rhys winning would be in line with the Rami Malek-style awareness of who is best in category but not with the fact that Jones just won a guest Emmy so I’m expecting Brown.

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    Teridax
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    #1202628513

    What if Strahovski wins, Dinklage of course wins his 3rd, but Foy wins by herself for Lead Actress while Rhys finally wins

    I don’t see a situation where THT has enough passion to overcome triple vote-splitting in Supporting Actress but not enough to get Moss a win in Lead. In this way I think Strahovski is tied to Moss in a way that Kirby is not to Foy. Supporting Actor is the category I continue to be confused by. Rhys winning would be in line with the Rami Malek-style awareness of who is best in category but not with the fact that Jones just won a guest Emmy so I’m expecting Brown.[/quote]Jones’ Guest Emmy as has been noted many times already helps Ventimiglia since it shows the actors branch wasn’t just blankly checking off last year’s winner for This Is Us and would appear to be in a “spread the wealth” mood in that sense. I know SAG is way bigger, but the show clearly won Ensemble because of that large and mostly talented cast. 3 different actors won so far, McRaney didn’t split votes with Jones causing both to lose, I’m tempted to put Ventimiglia in 2nd behind Rhys for that reason. Hamm, Malek, Brown, we haven’t seen in this popular voting system any really lazy name-checks. This most popular and passionately loved performance wins, and that is why I am sticking to Rhys because I don’t think there was a performance (Sorry Britton) in Guest Actor who had as much passion as a strong alternative to the This Is Us actors as him. I am probably going to predict Moss and Strahovski up until the very end just to be safe. The Crown could always win Directing or get shut out completely. Lithgow was the obvious frontrunner in his category last year. This year there is no obvious Crown frontrunner in any category. I think that show is more likely than The Handmaid’s Tale to be shut out on Emmy night, but then again I also thought The Crown would lose Costumes to Maisel and Cinematography to a THT repeat for Watkinson, and I would sooner have predicted a Westworld upset in Casting then one for The Crown. I don’t see The Crown winning any major Emmys but I have clearly been very wrong before about that. I am sticking with Dinklage until the end. I do think he has some passion but will admittedly be helped by a lack of competition. I can still only see Smith winning if Kirby and Foy win as well, and if that happens you know Daldry is winning Directing, and if that happens why wouldn’t it go along for the ride in winning for Outstanding Drama Series?

    For your Goldderby Film Awards consideration: Isle of Dogs for every category, especially Music Score for Alexandre Desplat!

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    sofan
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    #1202628515

    There are so many categories in which I can make a case for at least half of the contenders which makes me frustrated.

    Drama

    Lead Actress: Except for Wood everyone can win, I have Moss winning but one of the BBC America ladies winning wouldn’t surprise me. Neither would a farewell win for either Foy or Russell.

    Lead Actor: Ventimiglia is winning, they want to spread the wealth with This Is Us, so Brown won’t take that many votes away from him.

    Supporting Actor Fiennes vs. Smith, I have the former as a result of a THT sweep.

    Supporting Actress Strahovski vs. Dowd, I have the former.

    Comedy Supporting Actress Borstein and Beetz are competitive but I’m letting personal bias control me and predicting Mullaly. If McKinnon wins I’ll cry.

    Supporting Actor, Idk why Henry is at 1/11 and ranked 3rd. He is winning, all the signs are there.

    Limited Series Supporting Actor – Dixon is winning. He is one of my super bets so he better win, lol.

    I think there is enough support for JCS I wouldn’t be surprised if it took all three acting categories (though I’m predicting only one)

     

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    #1202628525

    I don’t see how Moss loses if Yvonne overcomes vote-splitting to win. On the other hand, I can easily see Moss still win but Yvonne lose due to vote-splitting.

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    Teridax
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    #1202628530

    I don’t see how Moss loses if Yvonne overcomes vote-splitting to win. On the other hand, I can easily see Moss still win but Yvonne lose due to vote-splitting.

    Funny, I see more passion for a 1st Strahovski win than a Moss repeat. Even though Strahovski was great in Season 2, can hardly be called a “makeup winner,” like Jones she would be another example of the actors branch spreading the wealth to a show they have consistently shown they love. The Crown (besides obvious lock Lithgow), Westworld, Stranger Things, and Game of Thrones (besides Dinklage twice) haven’t received as much passionate support from that branch for their cast members. I like my theory about the “vote-splitting” for THT in Supporting Actress simply leading to Dowd in 2nd and Strahovski in 1st, or maybe Crown fans get Kirby into 2nd for her breakout role as Princess Margaret. Foy won SAG twice but I think Hulu basically handed her the 2nd win by not sending screeners for The Handmaid’s Tale. I think Strahovski had what Light has in another Supporting Actress category, which is consensus, like a few years ago when Brown won over his 2 O.J. co-stars (and don’t act like Travolta got no votes) because he was widely seen as the best of the nominees from his show. I loved Bledel in her episode and Dowd was great as always, but for the most part I’ve seen people agree that this was Strahovski’s season. I think Moss will repeat and go along for the ride since the actors branch is on a high with awarding the female actors on her show. The Crown got everything it needed to from the actors branch but it did not over-perform by getting Jodi Balfour in, while THT got Kelly Jenrette in. The shocking Jenrette nod says more than anything else just how obsessed the branch voters are with this show, since her name was next to Jones for her nothing role on the show, and while voters were checking off Jones they saw Jenrette and were like, “Oooh! Another actor from my favorite show of all time The Handmaid’s Tale! I must vote for whoever this Jenrette person is because if she is on The Handmaid’s Tale she must have also been amazing!”

    For your Goldderby Film Awards consideration: Isle of Dogs for every category, especially Music Score for Alexandre Desplat!

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    forwardswill
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    #1202628532

    I can still only see Smith winning if Kirby and Foy win as well, and if that happens you know Daldry is winning Directing, and if that happens why wouldn’t it go along for the ride in winning for Outstanding Drama Series?

    Sadly (or not sadly as he was still great) I could totally see Smith winning without either of Kirby or Foy doing so. He has the advantage of a far weaker category with no clear frontrunner (although the latter point you could argue is true for Kirby as well). If the acting branch likes both THT and The Crown I could easily see a situation where many voters decide to throw the latter a bone by voting for Smith, knowing that they’ve just voted Moss and Strahovski in the other categories. This said, I do think Kirby has the best shot of any of the three to win purely because I still maintain that Dowd, Strahovski and Bledel will vote split and that will leave one of Newton, Kirby or Headey to take it.

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    Teridax
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    #1202628538

    I can still only see Smith winning if Kirby and Foy win as well, and if that happens you know Daldry is winning Directing, and if that happens why wouldn’t it go along for the ride in winning for Outstanding Drama Series?

    Sadly (or not sadly as he was still great) I could totally see Smith winning without either of Kirby or Foy doing so. He has the advantage of a far weaker category with no clear frontrunner (although the latter point you could argue is true for Kirby as well). If the acting branch likes both THT and The Crown I could easily see a situation where many voters decide to throw the latter a bone by voting for Smith, knowing that they’ve just voted Moss and Strahovski in the other categories. This said, I do think Kirby has the best shot of any of the three to win purely because I still maintain that Dowd, Strahovski and Bledel will vote split and that will leave one of Newton, Kirby or Headey to take it.

    Dinklage won twice, Lena Headey has never won, Kirby’s category has the GoT actor who isn’t the only one Emmy voters have ever cared about rewarding. Kirby’s category also has previous winners Dowd and Bledel. Smith’s has no previous winners. You are right in a sense, but in another sense Smith is in a tougher category because his biggest competition (Dinklage) doesn’t have any vote-splitting like I believe Strahovski could have and is up for a show that has 22 total nominations. When Dinklage won for Season 5 (also under a popular vote) his show also had 4 acting nominations. I think Smith will be too stoic and subtle ala Goode for Emmy voters to care enough to check off, while Kirby and even to a lesser extent Foy have more emotionally showy work in their episodes and in their season as a whole.

    For your Goldderby Film Awards consideration: Isle of Dogs for every category, especially Music Score for Alexandre Desplat!

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    Luca Giliberti
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    #1202628540

    Here are the categories where I honestly don’t know what to do:

    Lead Actress Drama: Moss is obviously undeniable, so is Foy. Moss won last year, had another stellar season, THT is my front-runner for drama series. However, two time SAG winner Foy is a real threat IMO. Netflix is really pushing her. I have narrowed it down to these two. I think everyone except for Wood has a chance though. Wiley’s win demonstrates support for THT in the acting branch.

    Lead Actor Drama: I have Rhys in first but I am putting Brown back in that spot. After Jones’ lazy win, I could totally see that happen now. I thought neither actor in guest would have enough support since TIU fell in acting bids, but Jones was able to prevail despite not being the obvious choice. Voters seem to be stuck in season 1, ugh.

    Supporting Actor: After Rigg’s loss, I have ruled out Dinklage tbh and moved him to fourth, as crazy as that sounds. I have narrowed this down to Harbour, Smith, and Fiennes. Harbour got nominated everywhere and probably was the runner-up at the GG and SAG. Fiennes is on THT, enough said. Smith could be the filler for Lithgow. Besides, farewell hug.

    Supporting Actress: I have Yvonne in first place and I feel much more confident now after Wiley’s win. Voters obviously watched S2, because Wiley was the clear standout of those guest actresses. Dowd and Kirby are real threats though. After Rigg’s loss, Headey has unfortunately moved down ://

    Don’t get me started on drama writing and directing.

    Luca G.

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    Teridax
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    #1202628544

    Here are the categories where I honestly don’t know what to do:

    Lead Actress Drama: Moss is obviously undeniable, so is Foy. Moss won last year, had another stellar season, THT is my front-runner for drama series. However, two time SAG winner Foy is a real threat IMO. Netflix is really pushing her. I have narrowed it down to these two. I think everyone except for Wood has a chance though. Wiley’s win demonstrates support for THT in the acting branch.

    Lead Actor Drama: I have Rhys in first but I am putting Brown back in that spot. After Jones’ lazy win, I could totally see that happen now. I thought neither actor in guest would have enough support since TIU fell in acting bids, but Jones was able to prevail despite not being the obvious choice. Voters seem to be stuck in season 1, ugh.

    Supporting Actor: After Rigg’s loss, I have ruled out Dinklage tbh and moved him to fourth, as crazy as that sounds. I have narrowed this down to Harbour, Smith, and Fiennes. Harbour got nominated everywhere and probably was the runner-up at the GG and SAG. Fiennes is on THT, enough said. Smith could be the filler for Lithgow. Besides, farewell hug.

    Supporting Actress: I have Yvonne in first place and I feel much more confident now after Wiley’s win. Voters obviously watched S2, because Wiley was the clear standout of those guest actresses. Dowd and Kirby are real threats though. After Rigg’s loss, Headey has unfortunately moved down ://

    Don’t get me started on drama writing and directing.

    The McRaney win would have been lazy. Jones’ win clearly hurts Brown since it shows the actors branch isn’t simply checking off last year’s winners for This Is Us in a lazy manner. Jones won as an I.O.U. which is a narrative 2-time Emmy winner Brown certainly does not have. If you switch to anyone over Rhys then switch to Ventimiglia since like Jones he fits that trend of Emmy voters in acting categories spreading the wealth to other actors from his show who didn’t win last year. If voters were still stuck in Season 1 McRaney would have won. Jones won as an I.O.U. while Ventimiglia is the one with that narrative, not Brown. Rigg was never going to win for Game of Thrones since no actor besides Dinklage has ever won, so it is irrational to move 2-time winner Dinklage down to 4th in a category lacking in one clear frontrunner, where the character they like the most (Tyrion Lannister) seemingly takes it by default. Because of Wiley’s win and Hulu having screwed up last SAG year by not sending any screeners and by not doing so kind of helping Netflix push Foy to a 2nd win, I am feeling more confident in Moss than ever before. Besides, June is a hero that is often difficult not to root for. No matter the writing of the show Moss has always given it 100% to create the most believable performance possible, she along with Glover seems like a safe bet to repeat as the lead of what I predict will be the 2 big Series winners. Drama Writing feels like an easy win for The Americans though I have Thrones in a fairly distant 2nd place and Directing could go to either Daldry, Taylor, or Podeswa, maybe even Bateman if the love for 2-time Directing nominated Ozark turns out to be that real.

    For your Goldderby Film Awards consideration: Isle of Dogs for every category, especially Music Score for Alexandre Desplat!

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    Luca Giliberti
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    #1202628545

    Ugh, you seem to be completely right. Bottom line, I have no idea.

    Luca G.

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    forwardswill
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    #1202628549

    Voters obviously watched S2, because Wiley was the clear standout of those guest actresses.

    Or they just voted for the actor they liked in the first season and knew had buzz this season?

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    lullopatullo
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    #1202628550

    I currently have The Americans taking Series and Writing, The Crown winning Supporting Actor and Directing, The Handmaid’s Tale with Lead and Supporting Actress (Strahovski) and Westworld for Lead Actor (Wright). They aren’t safe predictions, but for the moment I’m sticking with these.

    I was actually confident in Jones winning Guest until the day of the ceremony itself, when I moved him to #3 because I suspected The Crown would over-perform and because I would’ve never moved Britton under #2. I still have Brown and Ventimiglia in #4 and #5 respectively.

    A category I have no idea what to do with is Comedy Supporting Actress. Something tells me one of the underdogs might upset here. I thought Metcalf, but maybe Mullally? Beetz would be too much. I don’t know.

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