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2019 Emmy Awards Drama Predictions

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  • eastwest
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    #1202821060

    While I would never usually insist on a clear lead performance going supporting, BBC America might want to consider dropping Jodie Comer. Sandra Oh is the face of the show for awards bodies (exact opposite for me), so why not?

    Jays
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    #1202821068

    Oh isn’t winning. Season 2 will definitely be on more people’s radar after Oh’s end of the year sweep. Problem there is that brings Comer’s awareness up, and considering some (many) consider her to be even better than Oh, I can’t see vote-splitting not being a result. I’m thinking if Wright can get nominated she’s can definitely win. Worst case scenario in this weak year would be Emilia Clarke winning.

    Clarke is not winning lol

    Jays
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    #1202821070

    I adooooore Baranski, but I don’t get why people are so now so confident about her getting in now. If she couldn’t get in for the final season of TGW nor for the first two seasons of TGF, then why should we get in now? Emmy voters have shown that for some odd reason they don’t like this show. There’s no excuse for Alda and Martindale not making into the guest categories last year. Then again, lead actress is barren AF, and maybe TGW is like the Americans, where its support gradually grows.

    Agreed. I think Mandy Moore stands a stronger chance.

    Heptapod
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    #1202821074

    Wright will be lucky to be nominated. That last season was so universally agreed upon as terrible, so I really just don’t see anyone voting for any part of that show for the win.

    NoLogo
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    #1202821076

    This is shaping up to be an interesting awards season in the Drama categories.

    Game of Thrones is a lock to take Series, Writing and Direction.

    As far as Actor is concerned, I feel Sterling K Brown is a near lock for Actor. I’d love to see the sublime Richard Madden come through but the Emmys do love repeat winners in the Lead Actor category.

    Actress is between Sandra Oh and Julia Roberts from my perspective. I’d love for Christine Baranski to finally breakthrough for the best series on TV, The Good Fight.

    Supporting Actor – Dinklage again?

    Supporting Actress – this one is up for grabs. One of underrated Game of Thrones gals (Headey, Turner or Williams)? Julia Garner for Ozark? The superb Audra MacDonald for The Good Fight? Will they plunk Jodie Comer in Supporting even though it would be category fraud? Could Uza Aruba make a comeback?

    • This reply was modified 6 months ago by  NoLogo.
    • This reply was modified 6 months ago by  NoLogo.
    NoLogo
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    #1202821103

    Since when do the Emmys love repeat Lead Actor in a Drama Series winners? We’ve had a different winner in this category every year since 2011 (Kyle Chandler, Damian Lewis, Jeff Daniels, Bryan Cranston, Jon Hamm, Rami Malek, Sterling K. Brown, Matthew Rhys).

    Have you looked at the winners pre-2011?

    kellis
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    #1202821112

    Wright will be lucky to be nominated. That last season was so universally agreed upon as terrible, so I really just don’t see anyone voting for any part of that show for the win.

    Sorry for this incoming novel, but this is just straight up false. Saying it was universally agreed to be bad is extreme. It had the most critic reviews of all seasons, and yet still has better scores than last season. If you looked at the audience reviews you’d see that 99% either didn’t watch it or just skipped to the last episode. It definitely wasn’t the best, but season 3 is arguably worse (imo). She’s been a lock for a nom for every season so the others will be lucky to be nominated before her and with an effective goodbye narrative, she’ll be competitive for the win.

    Riley
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    #1202821136

    Oh isn’t winning. Season 2 will definitely be on more people’s radar after Oh’s end of the year sweep. Problem there is that brings Comer’s awareness up, and considering some (many) consider her to be even better than Oh, I can’t see vote-splitting not being a result.

    Jodie Comer is not going to draw votes away from Sandra Oh like that. This is like the Sterling K. Brown winning over Milo Ventimiglia at the Emmys for the first season of This is Us. Ventimiglia had his supporters and even a better tape, but Brown had such a big lead out of the gate, going on to win the Globe, Critic’ Choice and SAG without Ventimiglia being nominated at any. Speaking of those two though, Ventimiglia has closed the gap in the last two seasons to the point where Sterling K. Brown can no longer win (and neither can Ventimiglia), solidified by growing apathy for the show in general. I agree with others that Robin Wright is not in danger of a snub. She has never missed and sheer inertia is often enough. Add to that #MeToo sympathy, so many shows skipping to miss Game of Thrones, her SAG nomination, a possible last-chance narrative and how could she possibly miss?

    LiberianGirl12
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    #1202821160

    we have 8 years of the Emmys choosing different winners.

    Not only that, but a winner from either a first year or last year show.

    This is a good sign for Madden, as he will have the novelty / actor from a hot new show factor.

    We will also have to look at the actual submissions. Madden will most likely have episode 6, which features at least 2 action sequences and no less than 3 heavy emotional moments. All of which Madden pulled of magnificently. Which submission of the other contenders can rival this? Genuinely asking, btw.

    Then of course Bateman’s show was very well received by the guilds and he has the individual SAG win.

    So I am convinced Drama Actor will be Madden vs Bateman.

    agorretta
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    #1202821529

    The drama categories are a complete shit-show this year. We’ve spent lots of time fretting over Drama Actress and Supporting Actress, but the one I’m having the hardest time with right now is Supporting Actor. I feel confident that Dinklage, Coster-Waldau, and Banks are in. I think one of the two Homecoming men will get in, but not both if the lack of broad support for the show continues to the Emmys. Cannavale is the safer bet, as a past winner with the showier role.

    For the last two slots, I have no clue. I really can’t envision Culkin or Macfadyen getting in. I haven’t seen Succession yet, admittedly, but I still can’t see any performances getting in. Also, something I have been thinking about lately: HBO has so much on their plate to campaign, including in this category, whereas Homecoming is really Amazon’s only contender here. Maybe they end up making a good push. I don’t know.

    Back to the category though, I think that Robin Wright is the only hope for House of Cards, so no Michael Kelly. While I have Chrissy Metz sneaking back into her category, I don’t think Hartley makes it in.

    I have no clue who to put. Part of me wants HBO to submit Liam Cunningham for Game of Thrones, in hopes that he actually has stuff to do. I can’t say why he’s the third GoT actor for me, but I have enjoyed his performance over the years. Pretty underrated.

    • This reply was modified 6 months ago by  agorretta.
    • This reply was modified 6 months ago by  agorretta.
    Luca
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    #1202821563

    The drama categories are a complete shit-show this year. We’ve spent lots of time fretting over Drama Actress and Supporting Actress, but the one I’m having the hardest time with right now is Supporting Actor. I feel confident that Dinklage, Coster-Waldau, and Banks are in. I think one of the two Homecoming men will get in, but not both if the lack of broad support for the show continues to the Emmys. Cannavale is the safer bet, as a past winner with the showier role. For the last two slots, I have no clue. I really can’t envision Culkin or Macfadyen getting in. I haven’t seen Succession yet, admittedly, but I still can’t see any performances getting in. Also, something I have been thinking about lately: HBO has so much on their plate to campaign, including in this category, whereas Homecoming is really Amazon’s only contender here. Maybe they end up making a good push. I don’t know. Back to the category though, I think that Robin Wright is the only hope for House of Cards, so no Michael Kelly. While I have Chrissy Metz sneaking back into her category, I don’t think Hartley makes it in. I have no clue who to put. Part of me wants HBO to submit Liam Cunningham for Game of Thrones, in hopes that he actually has stuff to do. I can’t say why he’s the third GoT actor for me, but I have enjoyed his performance over the years. Pretty underrated.

    You absolutely nailed it, the drama categories are so incredibly meh this year; I am so glad that the limited series categories exist this year because otherwise I’d be bored to tears.

    Supporting Actor is hands down the weakest category at the Emmys in years. There’s no real passion for any of these potential nominees. I’m hoping we get some very original nominees, and not the ones we’re necessarily predicting. Waldau and Dinklage are pretty locked IMO, unless one of them were to die early on. Cunningham should have been nominated for S6, so I’d love to see him here, or maybe Alfie Allen who is exceptional.

    I’ve seen six episodes of “Homecoming,” and I don’t see why Whigham or Cannavale should be nominated. They’re both doing the same thing in every damn episode. I’d much rather see Justin Hartley nominated, because he should have been nominated last year and he’s still great this year.

    Emmy voters must bend the knee to Lena Headey & Emilia Clarke for "Game of Thrones." It's their last chance to award them. Make it happen.

    Riley
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    #1202821566

    SAG loved Ozark this year, awarding Jason Bateman and nominating Laura Linney, Julia Garner and the ensemble. SAG only has a few nomination slots, so who might represent the “ensemble” at the Emmys after not quite being so strong a contender to get an individual SAG citation? This is Us won ensemble and Sterling K. Brown got nominated, but Milo Ventimiglia and Chrissy Metz join him at the Emmys. The Handmaid’s Tale got both Elisabeth Moss and Joseph Fiennes in at SAG, but they also get three more supporting actresses in at the Emmys. Better Call Saul got Bob Odenkirk and the ensemble this year, with Jonathan Banks sure to register at the Emmys. The Ozark equivalent will be Peter Mullan. Of course he did not get a SAG nomination because he is not a core part of the show like that, but he was a big part of the second season specifically. And he is an Emmy-nominated actor to boot who just recurred on another show that is big with the Emmys. He is flying under the radar because Ozark is not a journalists/critics show, so he missed the precursors (and it is not really a Gold Derby show as such, so the lack of awareness snowballs, but this is an industry-beloved show). Of course he did not get into the Globes’ catch-all supporting category and of course Critics’ Choice did not nominate him because they did not even nominate Jason Bateman or Laura Linney! I have him fourth.

    Luca
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    #1202821572

    I absolutely agree. I think Mullan will be one of those typical coattail nominee, especially in such a weak field. I wouldn’t mind either, because he should have been nominated in guest for Westworld.

    Emmy voters must bend the knee to Lena Headey & Emilia Clarke for "Game of Thrones." It's their last chance to award them. Make it happen.

    Macca
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    #1202821641

    SERIES

    1. Game of Thrones
    2. Killing Eve
    3. Homecoming
    4. Pose
    5. Better Call Saul
    6. This Is Us
    7. Succession

    8. Ozark
    9. Bodyguard
    10. The Good Fight

    LEAD ACTOR

    1. Jason Bateman, Ozark
    2. Kit Harington, Game of Thrones
    3. Billy Porter, Pose
    4. Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
    5. Richard Madden, Bodyguard
    6. Sterling K Brown, This Is Us

    7. Milo Ventimiglia, This Is Us
    8. Stephan James, Homecoming
    9. Freddie Highmore, The Good Doctor
    10. John Krasinski, Jack Ryan

    LEAD ACTRESS

    1. Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
    2. Julia Roberts, Homecoming
    3. Laura Linney, Ozark
    4. Jodie Comer, Killing Eve
    5. Robin Wright, House of Cards
    6. Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones

    7. Christine Branski, The Good Fight
    8. Elisabeth Olsen, Sorry For Your Loss
    9. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Deuce
    10. Caitriona Balfe, Outlander

    SUPPORTING ACTOR

    1. Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
    2. Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, Game of Thrones
    3. Kieran Culkin, Succession
    4. Shea Whigham, Homecoming
    5. Justin Hartley, This Is Us
    6. Delroy Lindo, The Good Fight

    7. Matthew Macfadyen, Succession
    8. Richard Schiff, The Good Doctor
    9. Justin Bartha, The Good Fight
    10. Michael Sheen, The Good Fight

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    1. Lena Headey, Game of Thrones
    2. Julia Garner, Ozark
    3. Maisie Williams, Game of Thrones
    4. Sophie Turner, Game of Thrones
    5. Rhea Seehorn, Better Call Saul
    6. Susan Kelchi Watson, This Is Us

    7. Fiona Shaw, Killing Eve
    8. Audra McDonald, The Good Fight
    9. Mary J Blige, The Umbrella Academy
    10. Cush Jumbo, The Good Fight

    DIRECTING

    1. Game of Thrones
    2. Game of Thrones
    3. Game of Thrones
    4. Succession
    5. Ozark
    6. Better Call Saul

    7. Pose
    8. Homecoming
    9. Bodyguard
    10. House of Cards

    WRITING

    1. Game of Thrones
    2. Game of Thrones
    3. Killing Eve
    4. Succession
    5. Better Call Saul
    6. Pose

    7. Ozark
    8. Homecoming
    9. Bodyguard
    10. Orange Is the New Black

    • This reply was modified 6 months ago by  Macca.
    • This reply was modified 6 months ago by  Macca.
    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    #1202821843

    SAG loved Ozark this year, awarding Jason Bateman and nominating Laura Linney, Julia Garner and the ensemble. SAG only has a few nomination slots, so who might represent the “ensemble” at the Emmys after not quite being so strong a contender to get an individual SAG citation? This is Us won ensemble and Sterling K. Brown got nominated, but Milo Ventimiglia and Chrissy Metz join him at the Emmys. The Handmaid’s Tale got both Elisabeth Moss and Joseph Fiennes in at SAG, but they also get three more supporting actresses in at the Emmys. Better Call Saul got Bob Odenkirk and the ensemble this year, with Jonathan Banks sure to register at the Emmys. The Ozark equivalent will be Peter Mullan. Of course he did not get a SAG nomination because he is not a core part of the show like that, but he was a big part of the second season specifically. And he is an Emmy-nominated actor to boot who just recurred on another show that is big with the Emmys. He is flying under the radar because Ozark is not a journalists/critics show, so he missed the precursors (and it is not really a Gold Derby show as such, so the lack of awareness snowballs, but this is an industry-beloved show). Of course he did not get into the Globes’ catch-all supporting category and of course Critics’ Choice did not nominate him because they did not even nominate Jason Bateman or Laura Linney! I have him fourth.

    My only concern with your analysis is just how much of SAG loving Ozark will reflect at the Emmys.

    I know Ozark itself dominated with the guilds in general, so maybe SAG loving it has more to do with the Industry loving Ozark than SAG’s own Netflix bias, but that Netflix bias has shown a lot of discrepancies between SAG and Emmy nominations.

    From the top of my head, Winona Ryder’s shocking snub in 2017 (in supporting with six slots) after getting in at SAG (combines lead/supporting with five slots) was the first sign. Then, of course, the absolutely bizarre trajectory we saw GLOW take – SAG nominating Brie and Maron, Emmys snubbing both of them but nominating Gilpin. SAG nominating Fonda twice now, despite her getting snubbed last year and most likely getting snubbed this year again. From Ozark alone, Laura Linney was snubbed last year after actually getting in at SAG in 2018 (and again in 2019!).

    So when it comes to Netflix contenders at Emmys, I take their performance at SAG with a pinch of salt.

    Ozark is on an industry upswing, but Ozark did get two directing nominations last year as well, and was still snubbed for Laura Linny (despite her SAG nomination). Which is why I am weary of predicting Mulan because Ozark’s SAG performance might be because of Netflix bias, industry love, or a combination of both. So I am playing safe and predicting the three actors who actually showed up at SAG.

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