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March 18, 2019 at 8:35 am #1202820568
I do not see why Killing Eve would have been WGA-ineligible, but I see that The Playlist says that it was. Bodyguard and Downton Abbey being ineligible makes sense because they were British-set shows that were British-produced (BBC, ITV), but Killing Eve is like The Crown: British-set, but American-produced (BBC America, Netflix).
The way that I see it is that Killing Eve gets nominated if it has a good second season. I just do not think that it will. Jodie Comer is a young, pretty and foreign actress playing a flippant, soulless and comedic character. I do not see her getting into lead. I have Viola Davis because that she was randomly nominated for Scandal and that Cicely Tyson keeps getting in as, say, Laverne Cox comes in and out despite competition as weak as Kelly Jenrette, shows to me that some voters are still checking off the big names in that show—not to the extent that Davis can still make a top-five combined lead-and-supporting field at SAG, but enough to make a top-six in an exceptionally open Emmy field.
Comer is not supporting, but category fraud is a thing, especially for younger, villainous and second-billed co-leads. She can get a supporting nomination because I have no clue about the sixth slot. She cannot win over an iconic role in a sweeping final season (Lena Headey) or a breakout/scene-stealer who has actually been recognized as such by SAG over her (Julia Garner). I am confident about Rhea Seehorn in fifth because the random SAG ensemble nomination and even the random directing nomination to a lesser extent prove to me that the show is drifting around on the fringes and will make it in if the field happens to be weak enough, like for Viola Davis. It also helps that she should have been nominated years ago, so anyone who has been behind on Better Call Saul, but still considers themselves viewers of the show, must have reached her nomination-worthy material by now. Michael McKean should have won for the last season, but his finale was a hanging episode, so he required voters not only to be entirely current on the show, but also not to turn in their ballots until voting closed. It was too tall an order for a branch that is clearly behind on the show at best (and not even watching the show at worst). She is kind of like Nikolaj Coster-Waldau. He was not the first person that anyone was checking off for Game of Thrones, but the triple supporting actress nominations that one year proved that there are voters who are just checking off the performances from the show all over the place and they will get in if the field happens to have enough wiggle room. So Coster-Waldau was able to make it in last year because his category opened up—and because he should have been nominated so many years earlier that lack of name recognition was no longer an obstacle.March 18, 2019 at 12:17 pm #1202820898
HBO has a new series called Gentleman Jack premiering April 22nd. Another missed chance for Catherine the Great, which as I’ve been saying, will miss the deadline.March 18, 2019 at 10:35 pm #1202821428
Oh no, looks like I accidentally deleted Sterling K. Brown as I was updating my predictions for the category. There go my favourable odds!
I still do not have a lot of faith in Pose having the broad appeal needed to crack series, but Billy Porter seems to be the most acclaimed aspect of the show and was on the cusp of a nomination anyway, so I am thinking that the campaign can push him over the edge. And that sixth slot in supporting actress is just wide open. I had freaking Uzo Aduba before. Homecoming seems like a more straightforward sell, but hey, I only added it recently and in seventh.March 18, 2019 at 10:48 pm #1202821440March 18, 2019 at 10:52 pm #1202821442
Oh my, I knew they went extra with the mailers, but I didn’t realize extra enough to basically put tablets in them lol. The movie studios need to pick up their game.March 18, 2019 at 11:08 pm #1202821448
Pose is included in AFI’s top ten list, so it is guaranteed to snag at least one major nomination.March 19, 2019 at 6:55 am #1202821855
Indiya Moore makes sense for that sixth slot nowMarch 19, 2019 at 9:10 am #1202822052
Rhea Seehorn and Michael McKean will have guest roles in the final season of Veep.March 19, 2019 at 1:22 pm #1202822260
I’ve had Pose and Billy Porter from the very start. The Emmys tend to respond well to early seasons of Ryan Murphy’s stuff, and FX only has Pose and Better Things to campaign this year (I think?). Billy was very visible during the awards season, and he is easily the standout so I actually feel more confident about him than I do about series.March 21, 2019 at 2:01 am #1202824035
These are the programs which have scored at least 3 nominations in a single category in the past five years (besides guest acting categories): The Handmaid’s Tale, Saturday Night Live, Game of Thrones, American Horror Story, American Crime Story, Veep, The Normal Heart
I highly doubt that Catch-22 will score three nominations in supporting actor.
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