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2019 Emmy Drama Predictions Part 2

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  • wolfali
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    #1202852146

    Continue from part 1

    FYC GD Decade Awards : The Good Wife, The Crown and The Marvelous Mrs Maisel in all categories

    Heptapod
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    #1202852221

    ospencer and kellis, I stan your tastes so hard. Those top fives are so good. Hartley, Moore, and Madden would DEFINITELY be my next three picks.

    jacob121
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    So was that Krasinski SAG nom just a reward for a banner year or do we think it could translate to Emmys? Not sure of the actual metrics but my understanding is that Jack Ryan was actually fairly widely seen when it came out.

    Luca
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    #1202852310

    These would be my first-time wish nominees:

    Luca
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    #1202852715

    I just finished Bodyguard. Wow. What a show, I am kind of speechless.

    If Madden doesn’t win, my head will explode. And it’ll explode even more if he loses to mediocre Bateman. Episodes 4 and 6 would be the best Best Actor submission I have seen in quite a while. He kind of blows all his potential nominees out of the water.

    Riley
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    #1202852731

    I haven’t watched Succession, and I’m not remotely interested in doing so, so can someone tell me which Succession supporting actor is the best? I just want to justify Kieran Culkin being so high; is it because of his Globe nom? Cause Globes ain’t industry, and Culkin could easily be e.g. the Corey Stoll (House of Cards) of this show. He didn’t receive nonetheless a CC nom (like Stoll), while his co-star Matthew Macfayden did. So there doesn’t seem to be outside of the industry a consensus on which one is better or best (not excluding anyone else who hasn’t received noms so far in the awards season).

    Kiernan Culkin reeked of the kind of thing that only the Globes would do, so I took him out of my predictions. They love their famous families. Then I started watching and I could see it actually. The show is pretty funny, so it is not quite right to say that he is the comic relief, but he fulfills that archetype. It is not the most substantial character, but he is an arrogant weasel full of one-liners. Six episodes in now, I very much see how Culkin’s performance would appeal to the Globes and Matthew Macfayden would appeal to Critics’ Choice. I see it as analogous to Aaron Taylor-Johnson versus Michael Shannon in Nocturnal Animals. No configuration of Culkin and Macfayden being nominated or snubbed will really surprise me though. I disagree with the Corey Stoll comparison. Stoll got unlucky by giving a standout supporting performance too soon in his show. We often see the Emmys only nominate the recognizable faces at first, then they find the characters that they love as played by lesser-known actors in later seasons. Stoll’s role was much more substantial than Culkin’s, hence the consensus between the Globes and Critics’ Choice (and Satellite and Gold Derby win). House of Cards was also much more obviously the Spacey/Wright/Stoll/Mara show in its first season. The Succession ensemble is blurrier and it is less clear who the pushes should be.

    Yes but they will submitted the first episode of Killing Eve for writing, so it really doesn’t matter if the other episodes go downhill.

    How can you know what they have submitted?

    So was that Krasinski SAG nom just a reward for a banner year or do we think it could translate to Emmys? Not sure of the actual metrics but my understanding is that Jack Ryan was actually fairly widely seen when it came out.

    That SAG nomination makes me want to predict him just as much as it does not. SAG was so off last year and he seems like the kind of fluffy choice that would not translate to the Emmys, especially since I now figure that I need to go out of my way to call a few SAG nominees getting snubbed. But I also feel like Jack Ryan is the new Ozark and with Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody ruling the Oscars, the industry does seem to be all in right now for more middle-of-the-road fare for whatever reason. Krasinski is not directing his show like Jason Bateman, but he has the same prestige following his writing and directing of an Oscar-nominated blockbuster. I just watched the show and he definitely does not deserve a nomination, which does not help his chances. His performance was literally laughable for me in the first couple of episodes; his problem later in the season is more that the material is just not there. For a show called “Jack Ryan”, the man has quite little scenery to chew on. I suppose that this was just his origin and he be more of an active participant in the story next season.

    LiberianGirl12
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    #1202852751

    I just finished Bodyguard. Wow. What a show, I am kind of speechless. If Madden doesn’t win, my head will explode. And it’ll explode even more if he loses to mediocre Bateman. Episodes 4 and 6 would be the best Best Actor submission I have seen in quite a while. He kind of blows all his potential out of the water.

    Yes, that’s what I have been saying, no one in the Best Actor race even remotely touches Madden’s potential submissions. Add to that his rising profile and the hotness/charm factor, he is a lock for a nomination and can definitely win.

    There is a possibility that Harington might be a bit of threat, depending on his material in the last season of GoT. This remains to be seen. But I would be shocked if he pulled it off in such a way that could seriously threaten Madden.

    If it weren’t for the last season of GoT, I would even go so far and say Bodyguard has the potential to win Drama Series.

    wolfali
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    #1202852810

    Yes, that’s what I have been saying, no one in the Best Actor race even remotely touches Madden’s potential submissions. Add to that his rising profile and the hotness/charm factor, he is a lock for a nomination and can definitely win. There is a possibility that Harington might be a bit of threat, depending on his material in the last season of GoT. This remains to be seen. But I would be shocked if he pulled it off in such a way that could seriously threaten Madden. If it weren’t for the last season of GoT, I would even go so far and say Bodyguard has the potential to win Drama Series.

    Just a reminder of the percentage chances of each of the main category contenders according to the odds in the Prediction Centre.

    However, if we look at it from all the votes to a win and nomination, then here who is at the top of the race atm. DRAMA SERIES (10467 votes in total as of 14/04)

    1. Game of Thrones – 24.5% chance
    2. Killing Eve – 12.9% chance
    3. This is Us – 11.9% chance
    4. Better Call Saul – 11.2% chance
    5. Ozark – 11.0% chance
    6. Homecoming – 9.10% chance
    7. Pose – 5.23% chance
    8. Succession – 4.17% chance
    9. Bodyguard – 3.72% chance
    10. The Good Fight – 0.57% chance

    ACTRESS (8918 votes in total)

    1. Sandra Oh, Killing Eve – 25.7% chance
    2. Julia Roberts, Homecoming – 14.3% chance
    3. Laura Linney, Ozark – 13.6% chance
    4. Jodie Comer, Killing Eve – 12.5% chance
    5. Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones – 11.5% chance
    6. Robin Wright, House of Cards – 9.40% chance
    7. Christine Baranski, The Good Fight – 3.1% chance
    8. Mandy Moore, This is Us – 2.87% chance
    9. Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder – 1.44% chance
    10. Keeley Hawes, Bodyguard – 0.57% chance

    ACTOR (9442 votes in total)

    1. Jason Bateman, Ozark – 21.9% chance
    2. Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul – 14.5% chance
    3. Sterling K Brown, This is Us – 14.1% chance
    4. Richard Madden, Bodyguard – 12.7% chance
    5. Milo Ventimiglia, This is Us – 10.5% chance
    6. Kit Harington, Game of Thrones – 10.1% chance
    7. Billy Porter, Pose – 6.19% chance
    8. Brian Cox, Succession – 2.21% chance
    9. Stephen James, Homecoming – 1.21% chance
    10. Freddie Highmore, The Good Doctor – 1.02% chance

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS (8772 votes in total)

    1. Lena Headey, Game of Thrones – 26.6% chance
    2. Julia Garner, Ozark – 14.4% chance
    3. Maisie Williams, Game of Thrones – 13.3% chance
    4. Sophie Turner, Game of Thrones – 10.9% chance
    5. Susan Kelechi Watson, This is Us – 9.52% chance
    6. Rhea Seehorn, Better Call Saul – 7.23% chance
    7. Chrissy Metz, This is Us – 4.71% chance
    8. Fiona Shaw, Killing Eve – 3.03% chance
    9. Uzo Aduba, Orange is the New Black – 1.12% chance
    10. Maura Tierney, The Affair – 0.35% chance

    SUPPORTING ACTOR (9093 votes in total)

    1. Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones – 26.1% chance
    2. Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul – 14.0% chance
    3. Nikolaj Coster–Waldau, Game of Thrones – 13.5% chance
    4. Bobby Cannavale, Homecoming – 12.3% chance
    5. Kieran Culkin, Succession – 10.5% chance
    6. Michael Kelly, House of Cards – 7.50% chance
    7. Justin Hartley, This is Us – 4.10% chance
    8. Shea Whigam, Homecoming – 2.73% chance
    9. Giancarlo Esposito, Better Call Saul – 2.46% chance
    10. Peter Mullan, Ozark – 1.19% chance

    However, if Bodyguard is nominated, according to GoldDerby users,here are its chances at winning. Also included are Oh’s chances for KE and Madden’s for Bodyguard.

    If we break this down a bit more into who is being predicted with better chances to win, this is how it looks like for the top 10 (currently ranked by odds in the predictions centre) BEST DRAMA SERIES

    1. Game of Thrones – 1203 votes to win out of 1365 votes for nomination – 88.13% chance
    2. Killing Eve – 73 votes to win out of 1280 votes for nomination – 5.70% chance
    3. This is Us – 39 votes to win out of 1202 votes for nomination – 3.24% chance
    4. Bodyguard – 9 votes to win out of 380 votes for nomination – 2.37% chance
    5. Pose – 12 votes to win out of 535 votes for nomination – 2.24% chance
    6. Better Call Saul – 20 votes to win out of 1156 votes for nomination – 1.73% chance
    7. Ozark – 9 votes to win out of 1138 votes for nomination – 0.79% chance
    8. Succession – 2 votes to win out of 434 votes for nomination – 0.46% chance
    9. Homecoming – 3 votes to win out of 950 votes for nomination – 0.32% chance
    10. The Good Fight – 0 votes to win out of 60 votes for nomination – 0% chance

    DRAMA ACTRESS (I think some votes in the prediction centre may have been wishful thinking…)

    1. Sandra Oh, Killing Eve – 970 votes to win out of 1324 votes for nomination – 73.3% chance
    2. Mandy Moore, This is Us – 21 votes to win out of 235 votes for nomination – 8.94% chance
    3. Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder – 10 votes to win out of 118 votes for nomination – 8.47% chance
    4. Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones – 51 votes to win out of 976 votes for nomination – 5.23% chance
    5. Keeley Hawes, Bodyguard – 2 votes to win out of 49 votes for nomination – 4.1% chance
    6. Laura Linney, Ozark – 27 votes to win out of 1186 votes for nomination – 2.28% chance
    7. Julia Roberts, Homecoming – 28 votes to win out of 1248 votes for nomination – 2.24% chance
    8. Christine Baranski, The Good Fight – 6 votes to win out of 271 votes for nomination – 2.21% chance
    9. Robin Wright, House of Cards – 18 votes to win out of 820 votes for nomination – 2.2% chance
    10. Jodie Comer, Killing Eve – 15 votes to win out of 1000 votes for nomination – 1.5% chance
      DRAMA ACTOR (it’s anyone’s game)
    11. Jason Bateman, Ozark – 826 votes to win out of 1244 votes for nomination – 66.4% chance
    12. Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul – 190 votes to win out of 1181 votes for nomination – 16.1% chance
    13. Freddie Highmore, The Good Doctor – 9 votes to win out of 87 votes for nomination – 10.3% chance
    14. Richard Madden, Bodyguard – 93 votes to win out of 1113 votes for nomination – 8.36% chance
    15. Sterling K Brown, This is Us – 100 votes to win out of 1232 votes for nomination – 8.12% chance
    16. Kit Harington, Game of Thrones – 65 votes to win out of 886 votes for nomination – 7.34% chance
    17. Billy Porter, Pose – 26 votes to win out of 558 votes for nomination – 4.66% chance
    18. Stephen James, Homecoming – 5 votes out of 109 votes for nomination – 4.59% chance
    19. Milo Ventimiglia, This is Us – 40 votes to win out of 948 votes for nomination – 4.22% chance
    20. Brian Cox, Succession – 4 votes to win out of 205 votes for nomination – 1.95% chance

    If only GoT wasn’t a lock for Drama Series…

    FYC GD Decade Awards : The Good Wife, The Crown and The Marvelous Mrs Maisel in all categories

    LiberianGirl12
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    #1202852866

    If only GoT wasn’t a lock for Drama Series…

    I know it is, that’s why I wrote “if it wasn’t for the last season of GoT”. I don’t actually think anything else other than GoT will take Drama Series. But I am not gonna lie, if by some miracle any other show snatches it from GoT, I would be highly entertained lol I am not GoT’s biggest fan, as you can probably tell.

    Let’s say, for argument’s sake, GoT is not in the running this year. Which other show do you think would take Drama Series?

    Tyler
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    #1202852874

    I know it is, that’s why I wrote “if it wasn’t for the last season of GoT”. I don’t actually think anything else other than GoT will take Drama Series. But I am not gonna lie, if by some miracle any other show snatches it from GoT, I would be highly entertained lol I am not GoT’s biggest fan, as you can probably tell. Let’s say, for argument’s sake, GoT is not in the running this year. Which other show do you think would take Drama Series?

    Hard to say because 1. Nobody has really even entertained the thought since before last year’s Emmy that another show would win and 2. There is no strong alternative. I mean maybe Ozark but fucking shit that would suck. It’s not like there is any reason to believe it would be anything else really.

    Anonymous
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    #1202853322
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
    Luca
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    #1202853397

    According to Netflix, Bodyguard was the fifth most watched show of 2018. I think this is going to perform much better than we’re anticipating.

    Edit: It was the fifth most binged show, that’s something different.

    sofan
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    #1202853406

    So, I have a question. Is the new title sequence of GOT different enough to be eligible for that category?

    DvirBA
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    #1202853433

    If Westworld was last year I don’t know why this wouldn’t. It’s like a complete redesign

    LiberianGirl12
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    #1202853455

    Idk, do the Emmys care about how their contenders deliver on the big screen?

    Not sure if the Emmys will necessarily care specifically about big film roles of their contenders (unless maybe they are Academy Award Winners), but the publicity that can come with big movie releases certainly won’t hurt. Especially when said movie release happens just before Emmy voting starts.

    If anything, though, Bodyguard and any other Netflix show in the running this year will be helped BIG TIME by this:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-10/netflix-jumps-into-magazine-publishing-in-hollywood-awards-chase

    Apparently, Netflix will publish a 100 page long magazine with features on their Emmy contenders. They will distribute it to Emmy Voters in June. They are really not screwing around this year!

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