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2019 Emmy Drama Predictions Part 2

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  • Kevin Klawitter
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    #1202861865

    I’m nowhere near on top of TV as I am on movies, so my thoughts on the Emmy contenders tend to be idiosyncratic.

    For instance, the Drama series I’m most curious about in terms of chances is “Homecoming”. What do we think will happen there? GOT, Killing Eve, and Bodyguard tend to be sucking up the buzz, but something as distinctive and effective as “Homecoming” shouldn’t be lost in the shuffle.

    Outside of Drama Series, I could see it being a strong contender in Writing, Directing, Actress (assuming Julia Roberts isn’t hurt by the fact that she’s not coming back for Season 2), and Supporting Actor for Bobby Cannavale and especially Shea Whigam.

    Anonymous
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    #1202861877

    Who do you think will win

    I’m not thinking, only hoping for Madden. I just don’t know the Emmys enough to comfortably predict him winning if Bodyguard misses Series.

    Gabarnes43
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    #1202861884

    I’m not thinking, only hoping for Madden. I just don’t know the Emmys enough to comfortably predict him winning if Bodyguard misses Series.

    Im quite confident that Bodyguard will get a series nod, I think Madden will win also

    FYC Emmys 2019 ‘Killing Eve’ ‘Sandra Oh’ ‘Fiona Shaw’ ‘Bob Odenkirk ‘Jonathan Banks’ ‘Fleabag’ ‘Phoebe Waller Bridge ‘Olivia Colman’ ‘Ted Danson’ ‘Alan Arkin’ ‘Kristin Scott Thomas’

    FYC OSCARS 2020- ‘Little Women’ ‘Saoirse Ronan’ ‘Maggie Smith’ ‘Downton Abbey’ ‘Emma Thompson ‘Late Night’

    Heptapod
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    #1202861986

    People can totally win lead awards without their series being nominated. It’s hard, but it’s been done. Tatiana Maslany, Melissa McCarthy, Toni Collette, Viola Davis, Kyra Sedgwick, Jon Cryer, and Jeff Daniels have all done it within the past decade. It might be a little harder for Madden just because he’s not as big of a name as most of the examples above, but his performance is so phenomenally good that I think he’s got this one down even if Bodyguard doesn’t get series. A very well-deserved win.

    wolfali
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    #1202862015

    People can totally win lead awards without their series being nominated. It’s hard, but it’s been done. Tatiana Maslany, Melissa McCarthy, Toni Collette, Viola Davis, Kyra Sedgwick, Jon Cryer, and Jeff Daniels have all done it within the past decade. It might be a little harder for Madden just because he’s not as big of a name as most of the examples above, but his performance is so phenomenally good that I think he’s got this one down even if Bodyguard doesn’t get series. A very well-deserved win.

    I think Madden is a bigger name than Maslany, or at least was at the time she won and was nominated the first two times.

    FYC Emmys 2019 : Bodyguard, Jodie Comer, Bob Odenkirk, Lena Headey, Peter Dinklage, The Marvelous Mrs Maisel, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Ted Danson, Anna Chlumsky, Tony Shalhoub

    and CHERNOBYL, Hugh Grant, Michelle Williams, Ben Whishaw, Vera Farmiga

    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    #1202862065

    People can totally win lead awards without their series being nominated. It’s hard, but it’s been done. Tatiana Maslany, Melissa McCarthy, Toni Collette, Viola Davis, Kyra Sedgwick, Jon Cryer, and Jeff Daniels have all done it within the past decade. It might be a little harder for Madden just because he’s not as big of a name as most of the examples above, but his performance is so phenomenally good that I think he’s got this one down even if Bodyguard doesn’t get series. A very well-deserved win.

    He’s definitely more known (at least in US) than Maslany was at her first win/nom. Both she and her show are textbook definitions of cult passion picks amongst voters. Bodyguard has been a hit for Netflix and is literally the biggest scripted programme of all the time in the UK (or at least since records began tracking).

    Madden profile is definitly grown within the past few months, primarily since the Globe win; he’s just been included on the Time’s 100 Most Influential List; broke the internet because of his friendship / relationship with Brandon Flynn and I’m glad you mentioned McCarthy because her win was additionally fuelled by Bridesmaids, if Rocketman is the hit that Paramount are expecting it to be, then I’m 90% confident that he’s a lock for the win a la Heigel & McCarthy.

    Riley
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    #1202862455

    Recent final seasons at the Emmys:

    The Americans:
    – No Noah Emmerich or Margo Martindale in supporting

    The Good Wife:
    – Christine Baranski snubbed after being nominated for all six other seasons
    – Fellow incumbent nominee Alan Cumming also snubbed
    – Previously-nominated-in-supporting Josh Charles snubbed in guest
    – Two-time winner Julianna Margulies not brought back after being dropped the year before, despite being nominated at SAG a few months earlier and despite there being enough goodwill for the end of the show that the writers were nominated for the first time since the pilot

    Downton Abbey:
    – Only one acting nomination for the first time in the show’s run, even though it had just won SAG ensemble again
    – Joanne Froggatt snubbed after three nominations, including the two years before
    – Jim Carter snubbed after four consecutive nominations (and not being submitted for the first season)
    – No comeback nomination for Michelle Dockery despite having her best season and only having been dropped the year before
    – No first nomination for Laura Carmichael to recognize her increased role and worthiness over the last two seasons

    Mad Men:
    – Robert Morse dropped after five nominations, including the two years before
    – No first nomination for Alison Brie to recognize her contribution
    – No surprise nominations for Kiernan Shipka, James Wolk, John Slattery or Vincent Kartheiser

    Breaking Bad:
    – No first nomination for Dean Norris, despite increased role, contribution to series and show having just won SAG ensemble
    – No Betsy Brandt nomination either

    Snubbed only for their final seasons:
    – Matt LeBlanc in Episodes
    – Kyle Chandler in Bloodline
    – Don Cheadle in House of Lies
    – Beau Bridges had gotten in both previous times that he had been eligible as a guest for Masters of Sex, but missed for the final season

    I predicted a number of these. All of us predicted a lot of these actually. It seems like the goodbye hug is less of a thing than it used to be. So many of the above snubs are inexplicable. Voters do not really seem to be using the nominations phase to recognize performances that they missed before when it is their last chance.

    Actors have never been entirely there for Game of Thrones anyway. It has never won SAG ensemble. It experiences major acting snubs every year. I get that it is both huge and bigger than ever, but what about the final season of Breaking Bad? That show went out far bigger than it ever was, with the full support of critics and it had seemingly had the actors’ branch in its pocket, with its SAG wins. How did Dean Norris miss?

    Luca
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    #1202862904

    Waldau hands down deserves to win supporting actor IMO, I was so impressed by him in Episode 2. Dinklage has done nothing this season; if he continues to have no material, I will riot. I was fine with his Season 7 win because I did think his performance in the finale was excellent. I wish Emmy voters weren’t so lazy sometimes.

    Emmy voters must bend the knee to Lena Headey & Emilia Clarke for "Game of Thrones." It's their last chance to award them. Make it happen.

    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    #1202862965

    The Americans:
    – No Noah Emmerich or Margo Martindale in supporting

    I mean, the Academy never really embraced the Americans fully in the first place. It only got its lead actors nominated in 2016, and never got a directing nod. It’s not that surprising that the show didn’t get these nods.

    The Good Wife:
    – Christine Baranski snubbed after being nominated for all six other seasons
    – Fellow incumbent nominee Alan Cumming also snubbed
    – Previously-nominated-in-supporting Josh Charles snubbed in guest
    – Two-time winner Julianna Margulies not brought back after being dropped the year before, despite being nominated at SAG a few months earlier and despite there being enough goodwill for the end of the show that the writers were nominated for the first time since the pilot

    So my theory has always been that both Christine Baranski, as well as Alan Cumming were largely benefiting from the alphabetical order of the ballot. You are forgetting that 2016 was also the year when the ballot’s order changed, with half the voters getting the ballot in reverse order. I have no doubt in my mind that both Baranski and Cumming would have been dropped sooner had the ballot changed a year or two before. This is because the Academy had already moved on from The Good Wife, with the snubbing of Margulies in 2013 and 2015, Panjabi getting dropped from 2013 onwards, and the show’s best season not getting a series nod in 2014.

    Downton Abbey:
    – Only one acting nomination for the first time in the show’s run, even though it had just won SAG ensemble again
    – Joanne Froggatt snubbed after three nominations, including the two years before
    – Jim Carter snubbed after four consecutive nominations (and not being submitted for the first season)
    – No comeback nomination for Michelle Dockery despite having her best season and only having been dropped the year before
    – No first nomination for Laura Carmichael to recognize her increased role and worthiness over the last two seasons

    Once again, my theory here is that 2016 being the year when the ballot’s order changed helped get rid of Jim Carter and Joanne Froggatt, and not bring Michelle Dockery back. Carter would probably have been dropped before if the ballot didn’t benefit him. Likewise with Froggatt in 2015.

    Breaking Bad:
    – No first nomination for Dean Norris, despite increased role, contribution to series and show having just won SAG ensemble
    – No Betsy Brandt nomination either

    This I can’t explain, and this is the only legitimate red flag I see in predicting extra nominations for Throne’s.

    Snubbed only for their final seasons:
    – Matt LeBlanc in Episodes
    – Kyle Chandler in Bloodline
    – Don Cheadle in House of Lies
    – Beau Bridges had gotten in both previous times that he had been eligible as a guest for Masters of Sex, but missed for the final season

    None of these shows had any support from the Academy.

    So I guess what I am trying to say is that, we can largely explain the final seasons of many shows underperforming with nominations. So this year, with Game of Thrones being bigger than ANY show has ever been, with the drama categories having no competition in most categories whatsoever, and with GOT having gotten 5 acting nominations the last time it had a great season and premiered closer to the voting period, and in a year which incorporated the ballot’s order the way it is being used right now – 2016 – I don’t see how GOT doesn’t get at least five to six acting nominations.

    forwardswill
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    #1202862993

    Once again, my theory here is that 2016 being the year when the ballot’s order changed helped get rid of Jim Carter and Joanne Froggatt, and not bring Michelle Dockery back. Carter would probably have been dropped before if the ballot didn’t benefit him. Likewise with Froggatt in 2015.

    I kind of agree except I’d say Carter was the only one not nominated because of the order change. Froggatt to me was snubbed because it was a show voters were actually watching and she got no material. Meanwhile, I will always maintain that Dockery was snubbed because the producers chose to put Laura Carmichael into Lead as this made it that only voters who REALLY liked Downton would pick them both whilst the rest would only choose one. As Dockery was only just scraping a nomination without Carmichael, the internal competition would definitely have been enough to be the reason it didn’t happen for her.

    Vektor
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    #1202863048

    There’s one huge problem with comparing GoT to all those final seasons: the drama field is much, much weaker this year than it was in last 10 years. I mean, who will stop *insert third GoT supporting actress contender, prob Turner* from getting in? That category is empty. Same goes for Supporting Actor. The current field for GoT is perfect to break all nomination and win records, because almost all the other prestige shows are on a break. I mean, the fact that Ozark and Killing Eve are their main opponents says it all, those shows would have never been in a Drama Series Top3 in any other year, and it’s not like they will steal acting or below-the-line noms from GoT with an unexpected overperformance.

    wolfali
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    #1202863102

    So HBO are submitting Suranne Jones in Drama Lead Actress? Could she make it in? Honestly this woman already deserved an Emmy for Doctor Foster, but it would be upsetting if she got in and Comer didn’t because of her (which is ironic because Comer was also in Doctor Foster).

    FYC Emmys 2019 : Bodyguard, Jodie Comer, Bob Odenkirk, Lena Headey, Peter Dinklage, The Marvelous Mrs Maisel, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Ted Danson, Anna Chlumsky, Tony Shalhoub

    and CHERNOBYL, Hugh Grant, Michelle Williams, Ben Whishaw, Vera Farmiga

    nkb325
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    #1202863638

    Do we think Game of Thrones is actually not submitting any guest actors or do they just not want to confirm anyone’s episode count yet?

    Unrelated (or related, maybe if this tells us something about her episode count…) a little surprised they’re not submitting Gwendoline Christie with such a fan favorite character and such a big moment in the last episode, but I guess I’m not that surprised. After the episode I was wondering if she could sneak in over Turner but I guess I might be wrong

    Luca
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    #1202863674

    That’s okay, i’m still not impressed though. He should not be nominated just because he’s a fan favorite, which he’s not btw. Dinklage with no material still acts circles around him.

    (I did this more to use this gif, since everyone’s allowed an opinion).

    Emmy voters must bend the knee to Lena Headey & Emilia Clarke for "Game of Thrones." It's their last chance to award them. Make it happen.

    DvirBA
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    #1202863676

    We must remember that the fact most of us prefer Coster-Waldau to win this time will have no reflection this September in the Awards. Just like all of us were rooting for Lena Headey in the last 7 years.
    Unfortunately the only cast member the Academy likes is Dinklage… He is the only one with a strong case to win. And rumor has it he’ll have the material in one of the upcoming episodes

    FYC: Lena Headey ("Game of Thrones") for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series, Miguel Sapochnik (“Game of Thrones”) for Outstanding Directing in a Drama Series

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