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2019 Emmy Drama Predictions Part 2

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  • Riley
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    #1202868567

    Recently swapped out Michael Kelly for Wendell Pierce until I watch the last four episodes of Succession and make up my mind about Kieran Culkin versus Matthew Macfadyen.

    Riley
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    Neither Krasinski nor Pierce deserve a nomination for Jack Ryan, but I think that we see the industry sometimes give a pat on the back to overdue character actors without recognizing much else from their shows, be it Louie Anderson for Baskets, John Leguizamo for Waco or Niecy Nash for Getting On and so on.  Nobody is in exactly the same position as Pierce, but shades of this phenomenon pop up now and again.

    As for what Pierce has going for him for this part specifically, given that he was not randomly nominated for Suits or one of his various other roles since The Wire, I think that Jack Ryan has been widely seen.  I assume that it is Amazon’s most watched show actually and it got enough random guild nominations to confirm that it has at least some visibility in the industry.  It helps that Pierce is very much the second lead of the show.  Amazon’s press release for the show’s renewal included “Krasinski, who also serves as an Executive Producer, will be reunited with Wendell Pierce (The Wire) who will reprise his role as James Greer in the eight-episode second season” and did not mention a single other cast member actually.  The last thing that he has going for him is that although his role is not the most emotive, there is awards bait inherent in his character with his wrestling with his Muslim faith.  Overdue character actor in a well-liked, big-budget streaming show playing a Muslim?  What a narrative!  How brave for a non-Muslim to be playing one and for this major American show to be depicting a Muslim character in a high-powered CIA position!  That might be what some voters think, anyway.

    I just think that so many of the people that you mention are complete non-factors.  Like Giancarlo Esposito is going to get in for the fourth season of Better Call Saul?  Unlike Rhea Seehorn, Esposito does nothing on the show, so he needs to rely entirely on goodwill from Breaking Bad for a nomination and that was not enough for Mark Margolis.  I posted earlier in this thread about people have variably fallen off for final seasons and I think that Michael Kelly fits that bill.  He seems more like a Jim Carter, with Robin Wright in the Maggie Smith position.  This is Us tanked last year more than anyone expected and it might even more this year, so I do not see how Justin Hartley would get nominated.  Shea Whigham seems to me like an exclusively Critics’ Choice thing.  The character is too quiet.  This is the same group that awarded Noah Emmerich for The Americans without him ever getting an Emmy nomination.  It has been four years since American Horror Story last got a supporting actor in; they are not going to randomly get one nominated in drama.  That show is all about the women.

    Riley
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    #1202868858

    More-famous people benefited from the preferential ballot and passion picks benefit from the plurality system.  Consider drama lead actress: Viola Davis beat Tatiana Maslany under preferential, then plurality flipped that result.  If a voter had not seen either How to Get Away with Murder or Orphan Black, they would rank Davis ahead of Maslany by default because they were at least familiar with her from her Oscar-nominated film performances.  Maslany’s votes were probably polarized.  Given the acclaim for the performance (and the fact that she won under plurality), most people who had seen Orphan Black probably ranked her first, but she was an easy sixth for anyone who had not seen it and those votes dragged her down.

    The downside to the plurality system is that vote-splitting is now a factor.  We get situations like drama supporting actress last year, in which The Handmaid’s Tale was so popular with the actors’ branch that it got three nominations in that category. Hypothetically:

    Voter A: Dowd > Bledel > Strahovski > Headey > Newton
    Voter B: Bledel > Dowd > Strahovski > Headey > Newton
    Voter C: Strahovski > Dowd > Bledel > Headey > Newton
    Voter D: Headey > Dowd > Bledel > Strahovski > Newton
    Voter E: Newton > Dowd > Bledel > Strahovski > Headey
    Voter F: Newton > Dowd > Bledel > Strahovski > Headey

    In this scenario, everyone has Dowd in their top two and most people prefer Dowd to Newton, so this would be an easy win for Dowd under preferential. But under plurality, even though most people here actually think that Newton is the worst, she narrowly pulls off the victory because only number-one votes are counted.

    Luca
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    Thank you so much dear, now I got it all… which do you prefer among the two system ? PS: Newton was outstanding in WW2… her submission couldn’t have been better therefore her win is justified . IMO

    For a second I thought you meant World War 2, and I was like, what?!

    Emmy voters must bend the knee to Lena Headey & Emilia Clarke for "Game of Thrones." It's their last chance to award them. Make it happen.

    Anonymous
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    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
    Riley
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    That episode was the last straw for my viewing partner and I had to watch the last three episodes of the season alone.

    Emmyfan
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    3×15 of This Is Us

    Did anyone say that “The Waiting Room” would be anyone’s tape?

    Anonymous
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    Miles
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    That was indeed one of the worst episodes of the series. Anyone arguing on the merits of this show should be directed to that dreadful episode.

    boss
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    I have this feeling that Billy Porter might be a double nominee this year. I think he is getting in for Pose, and his role on American Horror Story: Apocalypse is similar to his Pose character. He has been talked a lot with his red carpet appearances, and has this kind of momentum which can yield him double nominations. Supporting actor also seems quite weak in terms of competition, his nomination might be one of those random ones.

    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    Is Porter going supporting for AHS? I thought since he eligible for Guest that would’ve been an easy nom for both him (or BD Wong) and FX.

    kellis
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    He’s going Supporting, so is Jackson. Easy Guest noms thrown away. Still can’t believe FX is still pushing Fern Lead.

    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    Still pissed about Fern, in such a barren field like this year’s, his performance generally being the 2nd most buzzed from Apocalypse and a potential overdueness from Versace, supporting should’ve been a easy nom.

    With Jackson & Porter in supporting, are Wong & McDermott the shows only realistic guest submission now? Given FX so far I wouldn’t shocked if they pushed Billy Eichner & Jeffrey B. Chapman instead.

    24fanatic
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    I have a feeling that Pose and Billy Porter are going to be snubbed. I think the series might pull out a Directing or Writing nom for the pilot, but that’s it.

    In terms of This Is Us, I found Season 3 to be disappointing. I’m sure it will still get in Drama Series, but with the exception of the “Our Island Girl” episode, I wasn’t a fan. I felt like Mandy Moore’s screentime went way down. If it wasn’t for Susan Kelechi Watson and Chrissy Metz, I would suggest she go Supporting. I do need to see Watson nominated though as well as Phylicia Rashad in Guest Actress (where she should FINALLY win her overdue Emmy!!!!). I eventually need to see Milo win too someday. He continues to be brilliant.

    Anonymous
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