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2019 Emmy Drama Predictions (Part 5)

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  • Megan
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    Let’s be real. There’s no frontrunner in the Drama Supporting Actress category. I don’t get why Julia Garner is in first place, to be honest. I doubt Lena Headey wins because of vote splitting but Garner… I mean, there has been literally zero Ozark love so far.

    I serve the tea (politely)

    mafro987
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    Can someone explain to me why This Is Us could be shut out? I don’t watch it (I don’t expose myself to mediocrity) but how did it win SAG for example if it doesn’t have support? Surely the acting branch can take it over the line in series and a few acting categories? I know its decreasing in nominations each year but in this noncompetitive drama year I’m struggling to see why it would miss.

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    Rachel
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    Garner received a surprise nomination from the SAG awards for Ozark. I’m assuming that’s why she is predicted as a frontrunner. She seemingly has a lot of support within the industry.

    Can someone explain to me why This Is Us could be shut out? I don’t watch it (I don’t expose myself to mediocrity) but how did it win SAG for example if it doesn’t have support? Surely the acting branch can take it over the line in series and a few acting categories? I know its decreasing in nominations each year but in this noncompetitive drama year I’m struggling to see why it would miss.

    I don’t think it’ll be completely shut out…but the support for network shows has been waning.

    kellis
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    Darlings, an ideal world.

    Ironically, that dress would look amazing on her lol. Also, is that 2nd Emmy the one that Aduba returned or Smith?

    I took a risk and took out Sterling K Brown and put in John Krasinski.

    I wish I was as ballsy lol.

    (I don’t expose myself to mediocrity)

    I- relate lol. But to answer your question, the Season 2 win was for a buzzier season, and the only thing I ever hear of this season is Rashad, and that’s from a vocal few. It also decreased in viewership to below it’s first season. I don’t have it being shut-out but even in this weak year, it seems odd to have it in my Series predictions. That’s not saying it still can’t make it, but it needs to keep Brown, at least.

    Edit: I thought the last ensemble win was for season 2, but I’ll stick the recent win to weak competition at SAG.

    “No user starts this shady” - someone culturally relevant.

    Anonymous
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    Riley
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    Can someone explain to me why This Is Us could be shut out? I don’t watch it (I don’t expose myself to mediocrity) but how did it win SAG for example if it doesn’t have support? Surely the acting branch can take it over the line in series and a few acting categories? I know its decreasing in nominations each year but in this noncompetitive drama year I’m struggling to see why it would miss.

    I was trying to find precedent for This is Us being dropped from series this year and the precedent is Orange is the New Black. These are both ensemble dramedies that flash through time and are popular with the masses; This is Us is the highest-rated drama on broadcast and Orange is the New Black was most-watched show on streaming.

    Orange is the New Black and This is Us had huge first seasons at the Emmys. The former won three comedy Emmys from twelve nominations; the latter won two drama Emmys from ten nominations. Orange is the New Black was triple-nominated for guest actress, This is Us was triple-nominated for guest actor and they each won their category.

    For their second seasons, they retained their series nominations (with Orange is the New Black jumping over to drama), but took major hits, with each losing their supporting actress (Kate Mulgrew, Crissy Metz). Orange is the New Black did not get as many nominations as This is Us, but it also did not randomly fall out of casting.

    Both of their nomination hauls suggested that the Emmy voters had not actually seen their second seasons. Critics’ Choice winner Lorraine Toussaint and “Super Bowl Sunday” star Mandy Moore were snubbed, as were supporting players with baity single episodes (Yael Stone, Justin Hartley). Pablo Schreiber broke through with a nomination, even though he had far more material in the first season; something similar happened with Ron Cephas Jones in the same category, but with a win. Along these lines, the series are also similar in that the industry latched onto the show’s breakout performance (Uzo Aduba, Sterling K. Brown) and held on even after co-stars came to outshine them.

    This is Us is going into the Emmys for its third season having just won SAG drama ensemble, which people use as justification for it holding onto its series slot. But Orange is the New Black went into the Emmys for its third season having just won SAG comedy ensemble and SAG comedy actress for a supporting performance. I would say that those two in tandem are roughly equal to the one drama win by This is Us. The point is that the supposed overwhelming support from the actors’ branch was not enough. Orange is the New Black would even win both of those categories again the following year, so this was not a case of it peaking at SAG and losing its momentum by the Emmys.

    The third season of Orange is the New Black earned a single nomination (casting), with the show being dropped entirely from acting and series. Then the show fell out of casting for its fourth season, but Aduba and Laverne Cox got their nominations back.

    Fair enough about the field though because the weakness of it resulted in This is Us randomly breaking into PGA this year.

    I don’t get why Julia Garner is in first place, to be honest.

    Julia Garner winning is a perfect storm of a variety of factors. First of all, the Game of Thrones actresses will split and Garner is the only other contender in the category that we can even be sure will be nominated. That alone makes her the frontrunner. That status becomes solidified with the mixed reception to Game of Thrones and the inexplicably positive industry reception to Ozark. Then there is how the new voting system has been kind to breakout performances, like Darren Criss, Riz Ahmed, Rami Malek and Tatiana Maslany. Like Rachel Brosnahan, Garner has built up a résumé better than should theoretically be possible at her age. In 2018 alone, she appeared in The Americans, Dirty John, Maniac Ozark and Waco. To recap, her competitors have issues, her show is strong and she herself is individually strong.

    Thatcher, Former Prime Minister of GoldDerby
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    I was your Prime Minister once.

    LiberianGirl12
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    It follows that Krasinski’s nomination was not some random throwaway, but a sign of much bigger things to come.

    I could be wrong, but I think Krasinski’s completely random SAG nomination was name-check only. The SAG nominated The Office consistently every year between 2007 and 2013 in Best Ensemble. So Krasinski is no stranger here. Neither are the other nominees this year of Brown, Bateman, Odenkirk and even Fiennes (nominated before with THT in Best Ensemble).

    However, all of the other contenders for the new dramas were snubbed: Madden and Porter would have been first time nominees and Cox hasn’t been nominated by the SAG in over 10 years.

    In Madden’s and also Porter’s favour now speaks that they were the most visible contenders of them all during this campaign. Jack Ryan is definitely not Amazon’s main priority and I didn’t see Krasinski out there campaigning at all. And let’s not forget that the SAG is Krasinski’s only nomination for Jack Ryan. All of the other examples you listed (Bateman, Brown, Malek) at the very least had GG noms (if not CC noms too) and much broader support for their shows.

    I doubt Krasinski gets in. Or at least I really hope not, because he would likely replace Madden and that I most definitely don’t want to see.

    Rachel
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    Everyone is making such good points I have no idea what to do with my predictions lol

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    Megan
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    I serve the tea (politely)

    Rachel
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    I just spit out my coffee.

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    Mukund
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    Krasinski was also having a big year with A Quiet Place, which eventually won Blunt a SAG award. I’m not sure if his nomination is an indication of support or just him being visible enough to get name-checked.

    LiberianGirl12
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    Honey, Krasinski could not be more mediocre in that atrocity rofl. He is not getting in.

    I know, which is why Krasinski’s SAG nom is so strange. I have seen Jack Ryan and it was a fun show, but absolutely nothing of Krasinski’s performance was in any way memorable.

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