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2019 Emmy Predictions (Part 3)

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  • Ivo Stoyanov
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    The reason why many people are predicting Ozark to break into series race is its obvious overperformance with the guilds, and it was probably ranked the eight at the last year’s lineup. It’s not that the show is a critical darling or an audience hit.

    It is an audience hit in terms of huge viewing, it has 100 000 votes in IMDB, for comparison, The Handmaid’s Tale has 106 000 votes. So Ozark is widely seen, I told you many times that this si the main issue for many new shows and I was proved right many times, most of the new shows are not seen by almost anyone. Maniac has 45 000 votes, Sharp Objects 38 000, both of them have an inferior score than Ozark. Hill House also has 102 000 votes, the same amount as Ozark, but the industry oblivious did not liked it enough and I understand them completely. I have yet to watch Ozark, so I am not defending it, but it is very popular.

    Tyler
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    Not that it even matters for 2019 but I randomly rewatched Elizabeth Moss’s Golden Globe speech.  It’s pretty damn awkward, and I’m 90% sure if any one else had been saying something like that there would have been applause. I had never really thought of it until now, but I doubt she’ll ever win for THT (or possibly anything else) ever again. Her being a Scientologist is too egregious, and Hollywood people notice.

    LiberianGirl12
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    It is an audience hit in terms of huge viewing, it has 100 000 votes in IMDB, for comparison, The Handmaid’s Tale has 106 000 votes. So Ozark is widely seen, I told you many times that this si the main issue for many new shows and I was proved right many times, most of the new shows are not seen by almost anyone. Maniac has 45 000 votes, Sharp Objects 38 000, both of them have an inferior score than Ozark. Hill House also has 102 000 votes, the same amount as Ozark, but the industry oblivious did not liked it enough and I understand them completely. I have yet to watch Ozark, so I am not defending it, but it is very popular.

    Out of interest, I looked up the IMDB vote count for all potential Drama Series contenders. Ranked according to the votes, the 7 nominees could be:

    1. Game of Thrones: 1 400 000 votes

    2. Better Call Saul: 240 000 votes

    3. Ozark: 99 800 votes

    4. The Crown: 77 500 votes

    5. This Is Us: 72 000 votes

    6. Bodyguard: 55 500 votes

    7. Killing Eve: 30 000 votes

    Runners up:

    8. Homecoming: 10 700 votes

    9. Succession: 5 828 votes

    10. Pose: 5801 votes

    Surprisingly, Ozark is the 3rd most voted show here even ahead of The Crown. I would have thought The Crown had much more votes.

    I am also surprised about Killing Eve’s relatively low count. I would have thought it would at least match Bodyguard’s. Both were very widely seen in the UK with Bodyguard only narrowly beating Killing Eve as the most watched show on the BBC Iplayer ever. I guess Bodyguard must be more popular internationally, perhaps due to the wide release as a Netflix original.

    I have a feeling Homecoming and to a lesser extend Pose won’t make a big impact at the Emmys. The buzz surrounding Homecoming fizzled out as quickly as it came, Julia Roberts won’t be returning for Season 2, Stephan James was borderline supporting and the show did not manage to win much these past award ceremonies. And Pose is a very niche show with low viewing figures, which was always going to hurt its chances.

    Heptapod
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    The Haunting of Hill House has been renewed for a second season, to be released in 2020, but it will have no connection to the first season. It’ll likely now be campaigned as a limited series.

    Luca
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    Not that it even matters for 2019 but I randomly rewatched Elizabeth Moss’s Golden Globe speech. It’s pretty damn awkward, and I’m 90% sure if any one else had been saying something like that there would have been applause. I had never really thought of it until now, but I doubt she’ll ever win for THT (or possibly anything else) ever again. Her being a Scientologist is too egregious, and Hollywood people notice.

    Did you actually watch the part when she walked up? Greta Gerwig was very happy for her, Connie Britton shook her hand, etc. I get what you’re saying but I think that after one sweep you lose a bit steam.

    Also, without sounding mean or so (I really don’t mean to, but it’s Elisabeth Moss, not Elizabeth Moss.

    Anonymous
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    I think THOHH will be no American Horror Story and it won’t receive major noms apart from some technical ones even though it is officially going Limited now.

    wolfali
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    Out of interest, I looked up the IMDB vote count for all potential Drama Series contenders. Ranked according to the votes, the 7 nominees could be: 1. Game of Thrones: 1 400 000 votes 2. Better Call Saul: 240 000 votes 3. Ozark: 99 800 votes 4. The Crown: 77 500 votes 5. This Is Us: 72 000 votes 6. Bodyguard: 55 500 votes 7. Killing Eve: 30 000 votes Runners up: 8. Homecoming: 10 700 votes 9. Succession: 5 828 votes 10. Pose: 5801 votes Surprisingly, Ozark is the 3rd most voted show here even ahead of The Crown. I would have thought The Crown had much more votes. I am also surprised about Killing Eve’s relatively low count. I would have thought it would at least match Bodyguard’s. Both were very widely seen in the UK with Bodyguard only narrowly beating Killing Eve as the most watched show on the BBC Iplayer ever. I guess Bodyguard must be more popular internationally, perhaps due to the wide release as a Netflix original. I have a feeling Homecoming and to a lesser extend Pose won’t make a big impact at the Emmys. The buzz surrounding Homecoming fizzled out as quickly as it came, Julia Roberts won’t be returning for Season 2, Stephan James was borderline supporting and the show did not manage to win much these past award ceremonies. And Pose is a very niche show with low viewing figures, which was always going to hurt its chances.

    @liberiangirl12 how did you find this info? If it is how I think you did find it (which is via either the highest rated or most popular sections and then changed to user vote), then I think these are the no of user votes in regard to possible contenders for Comedy as well.

    1. The Good Place = 54,599 votes
    2. Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt = 53,665  votes
    3. Sex Education = 41,629 votes
    4. The Marvelous Mrs Maisel = 39,112 votes
    5. Veep = 34,305 votes
    6. Russian Doll = 21,299 votes
    7. GLOW = 29,144 votes

    Runners up:

    8. Grace and Frankie = 27,602 votes
    9. Black-ish = 16,234 votes
    10. Mom = 23,239 votes
    11. Barry = 14,872 votes
    12. The Kominsky Method = 10,005 votes

    I know that this is probably an inaccurate approach to predicting the Emmy noms but do we really think The Kominsky Method is going to be nominated in Best Comedy Series, I have a feeling Russian Doll or (dare I say) Sex Education have better chances. I am personally surprised Veep doesn’t have high amounts of votes (to be fair, the ones it is lower than have wide international reaches, just as LiberianGirl mentioned in regards to Bodyguard being higher than Killing Eve).

    I think Barry is a lock. But I think one of the two available spots will go to The Good Place and the battle for the last spot is between Kominsky, Sex Education,  Black-ish and Russian Doll (it really depends how Netflix plays this).

    FYC Emmys 2019 : Phoebe Waller–Bridge ("Fleabag") for Best Actress in a Comedy Series, Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve") for Best Actress in a Drama Series, Michael Sheen ("The Good Fight") for Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series, Keeley Hawes ("Bodyguard") for Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series, "Maniac", "The Good Fight" and "Killing Eve" in all eligible categories.

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