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2020 BAFTA TV Nominations Predictions (It's never too early…)

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    Craig Kell
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    #1203496640

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see BAFTA snub Olivia and/or Jodie in Best Actress. Sometimes, they’re not afraid to overlook a previous winner or a British TV performance that did well in the States e.g. Richard Madden (Bodyguard).

    In fact, I also remember they ignored Olivia, Tom Hiddleston and Hugh Laurie for The Night Manager despite them all winning Globes in 2017.

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    forwardswill
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    #1203496958

    It’s taken me half the day but I finally have some predictions. The voting system (whole academy votes for top 6 then panels choose top 4) has me tearing my hair out.

    DRAMA SERIES
    – The Capture*
    – Gentleman Jack*
    – His Dark Materials
    – Top Boy
    Not to be ruled out: The Crown, Line of Duty, World on Fire

    MINI SERIES
    – Chernobyl*
    – Elizabeth is Missing
    – The Virtues*
    – Years and Years
    Not to be ruled out: Giri Haji, Guilt Les Miserables

    TV MOVIE
    – Brexit*
    – Doing Money
    – I Am Kirsty
    – The Left Behind
    Not to be ruled out: Black Mirror-Smithereens, I Am Hannah

    LEADING ACTOR
    – Stephen Graham, The Virtues*
    – Jared Harris, Chernobyl*
    – Takehiro Hira, Giri/Haji
    – Michael Ward, Top Boy
    Not to be ruled out: Benedict Cumberbatch, Dominic West, Sion Daniel Young

    LEADING ACTRESS
    – Olivia Colman, The Crown
    – Jodie Comer, Killing Eve
    – Glenda Jackson, Elizabeth is Missing*
    – Suranne Jones, Gentleman Jack*
    Not to be ruled out: Gemma Chan, Holliday Grainger, Samantha Morton

    SUPPORTING ACTOR
    – Maxim Baldry, Years and Years
    – Stephen Graham, Line of Duty
    – Tom Hollander, Baptiste
    – David Oyelowo, Les Miserables
    Not to be ruled out: Adrian Dunbar, Josh O’Connor, Russell Tovey

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    – Niamh Algar, The Virtues*
    – Lesley Manville, World on Fire
    – T’Nia Miller, Years and Years
    – Emily Watson, Chernobyl
    Not to be ruled out: Helena Bonham Carter, Sophie Rundle, Ruth Wilson

    SITUATION COMEDY
    – Brassic
    – Dead Pixels
    – Fleabag*
    – Gavin and Stacey*
    Not to be ruled out: Derry Girls, Sex Education, This Way Up

    MALE COMEDY PERFORMANCE
    – James Corden, Gavin and Stacey
    – Ncuti Gatwa, Sex Education
    – Ricky Gervais, After LIfe
    – Andrew Scott, Fleabag*
    Not to be ruled out: Steve Coogan, Jamie Demetriou, Youssef Kerkour

    FEMALE COMEDY PERFORMANCE
    – Aisling Bea, This Way Up*
    – Sian Clifford, Fleabag
    – Saoirse Monica Jackson, Derry Girls
    – Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Fleabag*
    Not to be ruled out: Daisy Haggard, Ruth Jones, Lesley Manville

    INTERNATIONAL
    – Catch 22
    – Fosse/Verdon*
    – Game of Thrones
    – Succession*
    Not to be ruled out: The Handmaid’s Tale, Pose, When They See Us

    I’ve put a * next to the ones I think are locked just because I want to be able to look back and go “wow they missed” on nomination day.

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    #1203497375

    It’s taken me half the day but I finally have some predictions. The voting system (whole academy votes for top 6 then panels choose top 4) has me tearing my hair out. DRAMA SERIES – The Capture *– Gentleman Jack *– His Dark Materials – Top Boy Not to be ruled out: The Crown, Line of Duty, World on Fire MINI SERIES – Chernobyl *– Elizabeth is Missing – The Long Song – The Virtues *Not to be ruled out: Giri Haji, Les Miserables, Years and Years TV MOVIE – Brexit *– Doing Money – I Am Kirsty – The Left Behind Not to be ruled out: Black Mirror-Smithereens, I Am Hannah LEADING ACTOR – Stephen Graham, The Virtues *– Jared Harris, Chernobyl *– Takehiro Hira, Giri/Haji – Michael Ward, Top Boy Not to be ruled out: Benedict Cumberbatch, Dominic West, Sion Daniel Young LEADING ACTRESS – Olivia Colman, The Crown – Glenda Jackson, Elizabeth is Missing *– Suranne Jones, Gentleman Jack *– Tamara Lawrence, The Long Song Not to be ruled out: Jodie Comer, Holliday Grainger, Samantha Morton SUPPORTING ACTOR – Maxim Baldry, Years and Years – Stephen Graham, Line of Duty – Tom Hollander, Baptiste – David Oyelowo, Les Miserables Not to be ruled out: Adrian Dunbar, Josh O’Connor, Russell Tovey SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Niamh Algar, The Virtues *– Lesley Manville, World on Fire – T’Nia Miller, Years and Years – Emily Watson, Chernobyl Not to be ruled out: Helena Bonham Carter, Sophie Rundle, Ruth Wilson SITUATION COMEDY – Brassic – Dead Pixels – Fleabag *– Gavin and Stacey *Not to be ruled out: Derry Girls, Sex Education, This Way Up MALE COMEDY PERFORMANCE – James Corden, Gavin and Stacey – Ncuti Gatwa, Sex Education – Ricky Gervais, After LIfe – Andrew Scott, Fleabag *Not to be ruled out: Steve Coogan, Jamie Demetriou, Youssef Kerkour FEMALE COMEDY PERFORMANCE – Aisling Bea, This Way Up *– Sian Clifford, Fleabag – Saoirse Monica Jackson, Derry Girls – Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Fleabag *Not to be ruled out: Daisy Haggard, Ruth Jones, Lesley Manville INTERNATIONAL – Catch 22 – Fosse/Verdon *– Game of Thrones – Succession *Not to be ruled out: The Handmaid’s Tale, Pose, When They See Us I’ve put a * next to the ones I think are locked just because I want to be able to look back and go “wow they missed” on nomination day.

    Out of interest why do you think Derry Girls is going to be snubbed in Series, Years and Years in miniseries and Russell Tovey in Supporting Actor? Derry Girls has swept the precursors and is the only comedy to have gotten in everywhere along with Fleabag. In my opinion I don’t see how Dead Pixels, a show on E4 that has gotten cancelled gets in over a show that has had about the same sense of cultural phenomenal attached around it as Fleabag in the UK. Same with Years and Years, it’s the only series to have gotten in everywhere with The Virtues and Chernobyl everywhere. With regards to Tovey that’s out of interest because I feel BAFTA are more likely to snub Baldry’s performance than nominate him over Tovey.

    Also The Long Song is ineligible. It aired in 2018 and was nominated at the BAFTAs in 2019.

    Now you’ve mentioned Giri/Haji I think we’re underestimating it. I think we’re also underestimating Kelly MacDonald a lot who could do a Keeley Hawes this year and get double nominated for The Victim and Giri/Haji.

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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    #1203497420

    Why is nobody predicting Olivia Colman for The Crown. Foy got in twice after winning US awards such as the Golden Globe and SAG. Colman is a BAFTA favourite so I don’t get why they would just forget about her

    There is a huge difference between Olivia Colman and Claire Foy. There is this huge sense of A list star appeal that comes with The Crown season 3 largely due to its cast and also its SAG ensemble win. Had Olivia Colman not been nominated for an Oscar for The Favourite and won it then I think she would have had a better chance. We’ve seen time and time again how big stars in television and film at the same time have missed at BAFTA. Just look at Gillian Anderson in 2012 for Great Expectations, Tom Hiddleston in 2016 for The Night Manager and most recently Richard Madden in Bodyguard season 1. Whilst you might be thinking hang on Hugh Grant got nominated last year for A Very English Scandal, there’s a big difference between Grant and Madden. Grant largely rode in on the buzz of this being his first TV role in a long while (just like Nicole Kidman rode in on the buzz of Big Little Lies being her first TV role in 30 years and won the Emmys). I think Colman fits the mould of Madden, Hiddleston and Anderson and Emma Thompson (who we are all underestimating this year who could easily join T’Nia Miller as a second nominee in Supporting Actress) fits the mould of Grant.

    Also just saying this talk about Olivia Colman’s status as a BAFTA favourite meaning she gets in for every project needs to stop. Yes she is a BAFTA favourite, but in the same way as Regina King is an Emmy favourite. They both get in often to both awards and yes often surprisingly win the awards, however that does not mean they are immune to missing. Olivia Colman has missed many times at both the film and television BAFTA awards (a person who has a similar case to Colman is Gillian Anderson). TyrannosaurPeep ShowBroadchurch seasons 2 and 3, The Thirteenth TaleFlowers and The Night Manager are a few examples

    Now with regards to how Foy got in twice. Firstly, The Crown was very much BAFTA bait in the same way it was Emmy bait. In fact part of the reason Netflix commissioned The Crown was its potential at awards (and also the fact that its scripts were excellently written). It wasn’t the populist contender that either makes or breaks with BAFTA like Bodyguard. Although Foy was a household UK television name at the time she won her Golden Globe, The Crown in its first season was a big phenomenon like Killing Eve was in its first season and Doctor Who was in its first season that BAFTA weren’t going to ignore. They even changed its rules to make both Killing Eve and The Crown eligible. Now with regards to how Foy got in the second time and Kirby won. The Crown’s failure to win a single above the line Emmy outside of John Lithgow and single BAFTA above the line helped it to gather a status as the underdog for Foy and Kirby. This is particularly shown in Vanessa Kirby’s win. Although she had the tape (which helped) she wasn’t even the favourite to win on the night (I believe many were predicting either Julie Hesmondhalgh or Anna Friel to win). Had Foy appeared in a third season of The Crown after she won the Emmy and Kirby appeared in a third season of The Crown after she won the BAFTA and was nominated at the Emmys they probably would be getting snubbed like Helena Bonham Carter and Olivia Colman are. If Jodie Comer hadn’t won the Emmy she probably would be making it back into the BAFTA nominations like Foy did in 2018 (although I do think Comer could still get in).

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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    forwardswill
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    #1203497452

    Out of interest why do you think Derry Girls is going to be snubbed in Series,

    Shows about teens are not really BAFTA’s thing so it was impressive enough for it to get in last year. I also think this year is just too competitive in terms of mainstream comedy. BAFTA likes to go for niche stuff in this category as well so that keeps it out. Plus they love new comedy and Brassic and Dead Pixels are the most acclaimed new comedies of last year. I would predict Sex Education before Derry Girls

    EDIT: Also, don’t know where you got the idea that Dead Pixels had been cancelled from. It was E4’s best performing comedy since The Inbetweeners. Source.

    Years and Years in miniseries and Russell Tovey in Supporting Actor?

    Also The Long Song is ineligible. It aired in 2018 and was nominated at the BAFTAs in 2019.

    I was going to say the same thing as above for Years and Years (although I was less comfortable leaving it out) but I will be slotting it in now that I know about The Long Song. Thank you for that. Pesky RTS fooled me. I can also now make room for Holliday Grainger in Leading Actress.

    Tovey is just a gut feeling really. I think he kind of has a slap the stud thing going against him and I’m not sure he comes across as the kind of actor BAFTA takes seriously. They also love to pick the wrong performers from certain shows in these supporting categories. Recent examples being Tom Hollander, Monica Dolan and Billie Piper who all had better internal competition. Baldry meanwhile has that kind of rising star thing that BAFTA really annoyingly loves to reward. He’s also really bloody good, which helps because it isn’t impossible to imagine how someone could pick him over Tovey, especially when he is just as central to the series’ tragic moment and actually lives to deal with the consequences. And his character, a refugee and asylum seeker, is basically at the core of the central political highlighting in the show.

    EDIT: I ended up going for Jodie Comer instead. I think the fact that voting was done before anyone knew the state of season 3 will help her.

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    forwardswill
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    #1203497462

    With regards to the Olivia Colman thing, I’m fairly sure I was the first one in this thread to raise that she may miss (?). However I eventually settled on predicting her because it came down to whether I think it is a performance BAFTA voters, who are much more aligned with the critics than the general public, will like and the answer to that was yes. The voting system helps her as well because she’ll probably make the top 6 based on visibility alone and then “Aberfan” seems like such an obvious tape to get her into the final four with the panels.

    Also, as much as I have my own reservations about the performance, let’s please not ever compare her to the piece of wood that was Tom Hiddleston in The Night Manager.

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    #1203497471

    I was going to say the same thing as above for Years and Years (although I was less comfortable leaving it out) but I will be slotting it in now that I know about The Long Song. Thank you for that. Pesky RTS fooled me. I can also now make room for Holliday Grainger in Leading Actress. Tovey is just a gut feeling really. I think he kind of has a slap the stud thing going against him and I’m not sure he comes across as the kind of actor BAFTA takes seriously. They also love to pick the wrong performers from certain shows in these supporting categories. Recent examples being Tom Hollander, Monica Dolan and Billie Piper who all had better internal competition. Baldry meanwhile has that kind of rising star thing that BAFTA really annoyingly loves to reward. He’s also really bloody good, which helps because it isn’t impossible to imagine how someone could pick him over Tovey, especially when he is just as central to the series’ tragic moment and actually lives to deal with the consequences. And his character, a refugee and asylum seeker, is basically at the core of the central political highlighting in the show. EDIT: I ended up going for Jodie Comer instead. I think the fact that voting was done before anyone knew the state of season 3 will help her.

    Oops about Dead Pixels, made a big mistake about it. With regards to Derry Girls I don’t see how BAFTA snubs it after it increased its guild nominations for season 2 (it was the second most nominated Comedy at RTS I believe).

    It really would be a shame if BAFTA picked Baldry over Tovey because Tovey really should be sweeping the awards like Ben Whishaw last year. With the examples of Monica Dolan and Billie Piper I do think that actually helps Tovey rather than hurts him. With both Dolan and Piper they had much higher name recognition than their co-stars who should have been nominated with them (I still think Piper and Dolan should have been nominated still!) and also they were coming off of highly acclaimed theatre performances which I think helped them as well. Piper was in Yerma which many say has the best theatre performance of the decade from Piper and Dolan had just been in All About Eve and won an Olivier so she was fresh in the public eye. I would argue with a wide collection of theatre work Tovey has those things going for him (although what hurts him is the fact he hasn’t had as recent pieces of acclaimed work as Dolan and Piper).

    I’m a bit cautious about Comer for similar reasons as I explained about how Colman got snubbed for subsequent seasons of Broadchurch but considering the fact that season 1 still over-performed at the guilds after season 2 aired she does have a chance (although she was snubbed at RTS again). I’ve picked Kelly MacDonald (who has been nominated for a BAFTA Scotland award for The Victim) but I could swap her out with Holliday Grainger.

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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    #1203497478

    With regards to the Olivia Colman thing, I’m fairly sure I was the first one in this thread to raise that she may miss (?). However I eventually settled on predicting her because it came down to whether I think it is a performance BAFTA voters, who are much more aligned with the critics than the general public, will like and the answer to that was yes. The voting system helps her as well because she’ll probably make the top 6 based on visibility alone and then “Aberfan” seems like such an obvious tape to get her into the final four with the panels. Also, as much as I have my own reservations about the performance, let’s please not ever compare her to the piece of wood that was Tom Hiddleston in The Night Manager.

    Of course Colman gives a FAR better performance than Hiddleston in The Night Manager (he shouldn’t have even been nominated for the Emmy!) but I was just comparing them on awards performance rather than who can actually act (anyone who thinks Hiddleston is a better actor than Colman needs glasses).

    With The Crown and Killing Eve either they dominate BAFTA with a reduced number of nominations or they get shut out completely (a bit like The Crown season 2 at BAFTA or Stranger Things season 2 at the Emmys).

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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    forwardswill
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    #1203497491

    Oops about Dead Pixels, made a big mistake about it. With regards to Derry Girls I don’t see how BAFTA snubs it after it increased its guild nominations for season 2 (it was the second most nominated Comedy at RTS I believe).

    The thing is, in such a competitive year, is it a snub as long as it doesn’t get shut out? That’s why I have Saoirse Monica Jackson predicted. In recent years, we’ve seen plentiful examples of shows that should do really well in the Comedy categories only getting recognised somewhere singular due to competition. Such as:
    Mum just getting a Lesley Manville a nom in 2017
    This Country still as acclaimed and more popular than ever only getting Daisy May Cooper in 2019 after winning two the year before
    Car Share only getting Sian Gibson in 2018 after winning two the year before. And for an even more popular second season.

    I’m a bit cautious about Comer for similar reasons as I explained about how Colman got snubbed for subsequent seasons of Broadchurch but considering the fact that season 1 still over-performed at the guilds after season 2 aired she does have a chance (although she was snubbed at RTS again).

    I am very cautious too and not confident at all but I think it’s hard to ignore that at the time these were voted for Killing Eve wasn’t in a rut it was fresh of a second season that was requested over 40 million times. Comer had also just been sweeping awards season in the US, which I know people on here love to say “counts against you” but let’s be honest, for the nomination, it doesn’t in excess. Otherwise Killing Eve and A Very English Scandal and The Crown would never have got such huge nomination hauls across the past three ceremonies. I’m also slightly unconvinced that the show can go from so many nominations to nothing and if anything holds it’s going to be Comer.

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    #1203497493

    I am very cautious too and not confident at all but I think it’s hard to ignore that at the time these were voted for Killing Eve wasn’t in a rut it was fresh of a second season that was requested over 40 million times. Comer had also just been sweeping awards season in the US, which I know people on here love to say “counts against you” but let’s be honest, for the nomination, it doesn’t in excess. Otherwise Killing Eve and A Very English Scandal and The Crown would never have got such huge nomination hauls across the past three ceremonies. I’m also slightly unconvinced that the show can go from so many nominations to nothing and if anything holds it’s going to be Comer.

    The Crown has the disadvantage also of taking a year off. And also whilst I largely agree with what you’ve just said : Downton Abbey.

    The thing is, in such a competitive year, is it a snub as long as it doesn’t get shut out? That’s why I have Saoirse Monica Jackson predicted. In recent years, we’ve seen plentiful examples of shows that should do really well in the Comedy categories only getting recognised somewhere singular due to competition. Such as:
    – Mum just getting a Lesley Manville a nom in 2017
    – This Country still as acclaimed and more popular than ever only getting Daisy May Cooper in 2019 after winning two the year before
    – Car Share only getting Sian Gibson in 2018 after winning two the year before. And for an even more popular second season.

    But the thing is that Dead Pixels hasn’t landed at any of the precursors whilst Derry Girls has swept in nominations. I don’t see how if any show that show gets in ahead of Derry Girls. I can understand Sex Education getting in over it though.

    Also could Gavin and Stacey actually end up as a TV Movie nominee instead of Scripted Comedy?

     

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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    forwardswill
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    #1203497498

    And also whilst I largely agree with what you’ve just said : Downton Abbey.

    In the major categories for two seasons. Arguably a similar trajectory to Killing Eve in that it only kept it’s most acclaimed part for season 2.

    But the thing is that Dead Pixels hasn’t landed at any of the precursors whilst Derry Girls has swept in nominations. I don’t see how if any show that show gets in ahead of Derry Girls. I can understand Sex Education getting in over it though.

    We both know precursors don’t mean what they do with BAFTA TV that they do with other awards. People who get in at RTS and BG etc. miss all the time.

    Also could Gavin and Stacey actually end up as a TV Movie nominee instead of Scripted Comedy?

    Don’t see it.

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    #1203497638

    We both know precursors don’t mean what they do with BAFTA TV that they do with other awards. People who get in at RTS and BG etc. miss all the time.

    I wouldn’t say they miss all the time? Particularly when all of the BG nominees for female actor got in last time and Jodie Comer got into RTS. I would agree that RTS can sometimes be dodgy though.

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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    musterd
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    #1203498017

    Why is nobody predicting Olivia Colman for The Crown. Foy got in twice after winning US awards such as the Golden Globe and SAG. Colman is a BAFTA favourite so I don’t get why they would just forget about her

    I think she has a chance but without meaning to be glib about this, her profile is too big for the BAFTA TV panel to be incentivised to nominate her and they are known to use the platform to boost the profiles of UK actors (like they did for her in 2013 after the whole ruckus about Bafta film snubbing her in Tyrannosaur).

    Like others said it is why she hasn’t been nominated for her recent TV works (last individual nom was 3 years ago for season 1 of Fleabag) because they have already nominated and awarded her in a very short period of time (2 in one night and 1 more the year after).

    I think Menzies has a really good shot at the nom though crowded as the category may be.

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    forwardswill
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    #1203498019

    I wouldn’t say they miss all the time? Particularly when all of the BG nominees for female actor got in last time and Jodie Comer got into RTS. I would agree that RTS can sometimes be dodgy though.

    Every year there is at least one contender who misses despite support from those precursors. Hence “all the time”. I patently did not mean in every category every year. I’m not saying they aren’t good indicators – most of the rest of my predictions have some support from them – just that they aren’t the be all and end all.

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    Craig Kell
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    #1203498201

    I hope Brassic makes the Scripted Comedy lineup. Loved the first series and I already think S2 is just as good if not better!

    Shame Joseph Gilgun doesn’t seem to have a shot for Actor though.

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