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2020 Emmy Nominations (Predictions Center Now Active)

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  • Riley Chow
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    Limited supporting actor is where I differ most from the odds, so I will explain myself some.  I am favouring borderline leads over deep ensembles.

    From Hollywood, I am only predicting Darren Criss.  The odds have only Jim Parsons and Patti LuPone.  Criss was the first cast and is always the first mentioned in Netflix’s official channels when mentioning the show, which suggests that he will get the top billing that he was denied ironically enough for American Crime Story.  But we know that Criss is actually supporting two unknowns, so it must be a sizable supporting role, which is more than I can say for Lupone, Parsons, Dylan McDermott and especially Joe Mantello, who was not even among the ten names listed when Netflix debuted the poster, so he might not even be eligible.  Lupone, Parsons and McDermott were in the bottom half of the list in spite of their name recognition and then you have to factor in that name recognition would have helped them even rank that high (like how Criss jumped the actual leads), so that makes me really wonder how much they have to do.  Going back to Criss, he is actually an executive producer of Hollywood, which also helps his case because he either gave himself a meaty part or it is moot because he will get extra credit from voters for his producing.  Remember when Criss won more awards than just about anyone in television history for a single season and everyone here was asking what he was going to do next?  Well, we have our answer and it is another limited series with Ryan Murphy, so he should be a shoo-in!

    For Fargo, I am only predicting Chris Rock and Jessie Buckley.  The odds also have Ben Whishaw.  The Fargo press releases list Jack Huston first among the supporting cast, which suggests that he has the biggest role, all things being equal.  But Whishaw won this award last year.  And Jason Schwartzman is listed between them and seems like he might have a better handle on the tone.  Then the trailer came out with a bunch of Timothy Olyphant, who is not a series regular and we did not even know was in the show.  It is all quite messy and I do not want to bet big on a show like this that seems to be fading.  Jessie Buckley is positioned well though as a rising star who keeps popping up like Julia Garner, plus she is the only woman in the cast, so she does not even need to be the best in show to have the best awards run, like Rachel McAdams and Alexander Skarsgård.

    Mrs. America is the reverse Fargo.  The press release is all over the place.  The characters are listed in one order, then the actresses are listed in another, so who knows who has a good role or performance.  There is no way that all or even most of the supporting actresses are getting nominated.  This is such a competitive year for limited series that I am not even going to be on any of them standing out from the pack.  All that is clear is that Cate Blanchett is the lead and John Slattery is the only man, so those are the only two that I am predicting for now.

    The trailer for The Undoing bills four performances and they are spread out across three categories, so they should all being able to make it, given their statures and that the show appears to be HBO’s top priority in the limited field this year.  Why would I bet against HBO?  It is not a hot take that Nicole Kidman, Hugh Grant and Donald Sutherland are getting nominated, but the odds do not favour Edgar Ramirez, who was nominated in this very category two years ago in addition to all of the above.

    Eden
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    #1203363511

    The trailer for The Undoing bills four performances and they are spread out across three categories, so they should all being able to make it, given their statures and that the show appears to be HBO’s top priority in the limited field this year. Why would I bet against HBO? It is not a hot take that Nicole Kidman, Hugh Grant and Donald Sutherland are getting nominated, but the odds do not favour Edgar Ramirez, who was nominated in this very category two years ago in addition to all of the above.

    Grant isn’t featured as lead in the trailer, I think he barely appeared in it. The premise has his character described as “disappeared”, which reminds me of Skarsgard in Big Little Lies. If anything, the therapist played by Sutherland might have a bigger role than the husband (Grant). I guess you guys have more information on category submissions, but he’ll probably go supporting. Just a hunch.

    Hoster1
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    #1203363540

    Why the fuck is Cillian Muprhy in Top 6?

    methaddiction
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    Why the fuck is Cillian Muprhy in Top 6?

    The odds are messed up.

    Hoster1
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    #1203363554

    They should merge TV Movies and Limited Series into one category with 7 nominees.

    Luca
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    #1203363565

    Wow, the odds are messed up. Cillian Murphy and Fiona Shaw in the top 6, respectively, with barely any votes? LOL.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

    boss
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    #1203363579

    The second season of Fargo has missed for its male lead, and for the third season Mary Elizabeth Winstead is too big to ignore (not even mentioning Michael Stuhlbarg—The Night Of instead had double supporting actor nominations for quite small roles). Fargo may even miss for Jessie Buckley if something like Mrs. America gains more attraction (see When They See Us’ acting nominations last year) and I’m not confident for it to gain double nominations in any acting category.

    Jays
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    #1203363582

    The second season of Fargo has missed for its male lead, and for the third season Mary Elizabeth Winstead is too big to ignore (not even mentioning Michael Stuhlbarg—The Night Of instead had double supporting actor nominations for quite small roles). Fargo may even miss for Jessie Buckley if something like Mrs. America gains more attraction (see When They See Us’ acting nominations last year) and I’m not confident for it to gain double nominations in any acting category.

    Meh, Fargo has still always done really well in terms of acting noms. Season 3 still got 3 actors in and season 4 got 4. Buckley looks great in the trailer and may be the only one in her show competing in that category which should help her out a great deal. If Fargo gets in series, which I don’t see why it wouldn’t since it’s never missed series at the Emmy’s, then I don’t see why Buckley would miss.

    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    They should merge TV Movies and Limited Series into one category with 7 nominees.

    They did something similar from 2011-2013 after only two limited series in its own category in 2010. Then after three of a fraud series & TV movies (Downton, Game Change & Candelabra), FX led a campaign to spilt the categories again because the networks feared that they’re upcoming miniseries (True Detective, Fargo & Klondike) would lose to The Normal Heart.

    An easy solution to the lack of TV Movies would be to allow episodic anthology series compete regardless of time restriction and genre. In that hypothetical the category this year could 5/5 filled with Black Mirror, Modern Love, Dolly Parton’s Heartstrings, Little America & The Twilight Zone.

    rlk
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    #1203363684

    An easy solution to the lack of TV Movies would be to allow episodic anthology series compete regardless of time restriction and genre. In that hypothetical the category this year could 5/5 filled with Black Mirror, Modern Love, Dolly Parton’s Heartstrings, Little America & The Twilight Zone.

    I would be fine with that. There is such inconsistency with how/where NATAS allows anthologies to compete. Black Mirror gets in TV Movie, The Twilight Zone ran as a Drama series last year, and it looks like Little America will be positioned (according to the predictions center) as a Comedy. So…they’re not one “thing” but they can be “anything?”

    Heptapod
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    #1203363858

    Why the hell is Dollface so high? Mediocre reviews, likely not Hulu’s top contender, made zero impact at previous awards? Guess we have to wait a little longer for the center to not be forked up.

    Riley Chow
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    #1203363875

    Everyone, I already explained how Dollface is so high and Cillian Murphy is the same story. There is no great mystery here.

    I do not know the exact weighting, but the Combined odds combine the odds of the Experts, Editors and Users. But right now, only two Experts have logged predictions, so each of them accounts for probably like fifteen percent of the odds. So Thelma Adams has Cillian Murphy in second place for some reason. That means that Cillian Murphy is ranked second in fifteen percent of the odds. So that is going to hugely skew things and is how he is ranked sixth overall.

    Susan is predicting Dollface and even though she now works for Gold Derby, she has retained her position in the Experts bracket, so her votes influence both the Experts and Editors odds. What we really need is for Joyce to make her predictions because she has the same dual eligibility as Susan and she tends to have the most sensible predictions, so she will really offset these outlier predictions, not to mention that any Expert making predictions will water down whatever Expert predictions exist. Note how Dollface is now out of the top seven since Thelma Adams logged her predictions because Susan’s now carry less weight.

    As for why the Experts are weighted so heavily, well, first of all, they are supposed to be the Experts, so they should make our overall predictions look better. But more specifically or importantly, many Users log predictions once and never change them. Remember The Beguiled? That film finished just outside the Combined predictions in several categories because 1600 Users never revised their initial Oscar predictions that season. The Experts and Editors meanwhile took it out over the season of course and saved Gold Derby from embarrassing final odds.

    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    and it looks like Little America will be positioned (according to the predictions center) as a Comedy.

    I’m guessing this is strategic on Apple’s part, it’s they’re most acclaimed by a country mile and given how barren comedy is right now, they must obviously think it’s prime to snatch a few nominations (Series, Writing and Guest).

    Riley Chow
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    Grant isn’t featured as lead in the trailer, I think he barely appeared in it. The premise has his character described as “disappeared”, which reminds me of Skarsgard in Big Little Lies. If anything, the therapist played by Sutherland might have a bigger role than the husband (Grant). I guess you guys have more information on category submissions, but he’ll probably go supporting. Just a hunch.

    Grant was indeed not lead in the trailer, but HBO—the network that put Sarah Snook and all of those Westworld guys in lead—is not going to stick all three men from this show in supporting, especially when the top-billed is an A-lister (who was nominated in this lead category last year). As for actually getting the nomination, voters are not going to deny Hugh Grant just because he is in the wrong category if The Undoing actually is HBO’s big play this year, lest we forget Niecy Nash and Aunjanue Ellis from Netflix’s big push last year.

    Tyler
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    Is The Undoing HBO’s main push in spite of Watchmen? Or just the one airing at a better time

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