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2020 Emmys Predictions (Part 7)

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  • musterd
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    #1203304777

    Can someone explain to me why Colman is the frontrunner because her performance is clearly not the best and she loose CC and Sag

    Nah I would agree I don’t understand why Colman is positioned as the frontrunner either (although I adore her performance in TC and think she’s deserving of a win).

    But there is question mark over whether those SAG and Emmy losses are evidence that she’s not, because she had internal competition in both those races. Someone had a stat that it is very rare to overcome vote splitting in SAG acting race and The Crown showed strength in winning Ensemble. I dont know what the CC/Emmy overlap is but TC has never been a CC show given the only win it has every gotten there is Lithgow.

    I do think (and hope) Succession wins Drama so they may want to give The Crown a win in other major categories and acting makes the most sense.

    Riley Chow
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    #1203304812

    The other nominees I guess will be something like the Transparent Musical Finale, the Gavin & Stacey Xmas Special, Elizabeth Is Missing & one of the Dolly Parton Heartstrings episodes since Netflix have Black Mirror in series this year.

    Only the finale from Heartstrings is eligible, which I had not considered and Netflix seemed to submit it as a limited series for the guilds. Gavin & Stacey is also too short. Elizabeth is Missing does not seem to be an American co-production, so I do not see it being eligible either.

    Guest 2018
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    #1203304978

    This sounds hyperbolic, but if Schitts Creek ends up really performing well on nominations morning and all four of the main cast get in, could 2 if not 3 of them win it? O’Hara obviously seems to be carving the path for a win, but despite her being a clear MVP anyone who watches the show knows that it’s carried by all four, perhaps even more by the younger two (them going supporting is kinda fraud but whatever). It seems like every acting category besides lead actor could be Schitts Creek vs. Maisel, and if the cards are played right couldn’t the former drum up some real buzz?

    In an ideal world, broadcast TV’s best series will have a significant say in this discussion. And it leaves us next Thursday.

    sofan
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    #1203305134

    The only significant SAG nod for TMS was Billy Crudup, because he’s been thoroughly under-rewarded in his career thus far. Steve Carell got a nod because they love him (he got a nom for freaking Battle of the Sexes) and Aniston won because she’s a powerhouse in that show. You can overperform at SAG but still perform poorly at the Emmys (GLOW says hi) – it happens. TMS isn’t Emmy fare. It’s popcorn entertainment that occasionally nails its social commentary, but that’s it. It didn’t deserve to be bashed by critics like it was, but it’s in no way Emmy material – IMO.

    You are really afraid TMS will kick THT out of contention in many categories, aren’t you? It is funny, tbh. Will be even funnier to read your fumes when TMS overperforms, which I expect will get nominations around lower double-digits.

    I feel like Shalhoub is easily winning again same with Kirby and possibly Borstein as well I haven’t seen the third season yet but what else is there besides Schitts Creek.

    I think Eddie Murphy wins Guest Actor easily.

    Heptapod
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    #1203305173

    Just out of curiosity, I did a little research on actors being nominated without their shows being nominated for series and found these stats:

    2019 – 9 noms with 0 wins
    2018 – 13 noms with 0 wins
    2017 – 17 noms with 0 wins
    2016 – 15 noms with 2 wins (Maslany, Anderson)
    2015 – 24 noms with 2 wins (Davis, Janney)
    2014 – 21 noms with 2 wins (Margulies, Janney)
    2013 – 14 noms with 3 wins (Daniels, Wever, Cannavale)
    2012 – 16 noms with 1 win (Cryer)
    2011 – 18 noms with 2 wins (McCarthy, Martindale)
    2010 – 17 noms with 2 wins (Parsons, Sedgwick)

    It’s becoming increasingly more difficult to be nominated without a series contender, and it’s now much harder to win without a series contender than before. The pendulum may end up swinging in the other direction again, but one thing to keep an eye out for in predictions this time around is the fact that it’ll be hard for some of these people to snag that nomination without a series contender (which means that a lot of the people from last year who got nominated along with their series for the first time i.e. Linney and Shaw among others could definitely be in danger).

    Luca
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    #1203305357

    Handmaid’s won ASC over Maisel! Yay!

    You are really afraid TMS will kick THT out of contention in many categories, aren’t you? It is funny, tbh. Will be even funnier to read your fumes when TMS overperforms, which I expect will get nominations around lower double-digits.

    You’re funny. I’ve ranked among the top 10 predictors for the Emmy nods for two years in a row now, I think I have some sort of credibility, right? Look, I don’t think TMS is an academy show, that’s it. I greatly enjoyed watching it though. It might overperform, but I need more evidence to predict that; we’re still too early in the season. I’m just surprised that the GD forums, which were very lukewarm on TMS, are all of a sudden singing its praises. And for the record, I’m not worried about it edging out Handmaid’s, because except for in actress, THT is probably still ahead of it.

    Oscar FYC - Lupita Nyong'o & Elisabeth Moss ("Us") - Best Actress & Supporting Actress. It must happen; otherwise the Tethered are coming.

    Riley Chow
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    #1203305515

    I need more evidence to predict that; we’re still too early in the season.

    But, like, what kind of evidence? SAG has the only other industry-voted acting awards, so that is all that we are going to get. If you want to go beyond industry, it won a Critics’ Choice Award and got dueling Golden Globe nominations. And if you want to go beyond the actors’ branch, then your dissent is misdirected because that is the only support that we are arguing that it will get. Nobody is making the case that this is an academy show with writers, directors or below the line as far as I know.

    Luca
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    #1203305520

    What I meant is that the closer we get to May/June, the more we’re able to read the temperature in the room. If TMS still holds on until then, I will predict it in the acting races, but I need to see how this drams field plays out and develops. And oh yeah for sure, but sofan said lower double-digits, which would mean not only acting. Anyway, I now sound like a hater of the show although I truly enjoyed it. So I’ll just stop. We’ll see what happens.

    Oscar FYC - Lupita Nyong'o & Elisabeth Moss ("Us") - Best Actress & Supporting Actress. It must happen; otherwise the Tethered are coming.

    Riley Chow
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    #1203305526

    sofan said lower double-digits, which would mean not only acting.

    Oh, true!

    Anonymous
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    #1203305599
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
    mafro987
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    #1203306906

    Watchmen is so overrated. Industry literally ejaculates on everything HBO makes. I’ve seen better superhero shows. Don’t get me wrong, it’s good, well-written, the twist and the flashbacks episode were outstanding but overall somewhat forgettable.

    ‘It’s good, well-written, the twist and flashback episodes were outstanding’: so basically it’s not so overrated? You clearly haven’t forgotten about it.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best International Feature: Instinct (The Netherlands)
    Best Actress: Carice van Houten (Instinct)

    thatnerdgreg
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    #1203308638

    I think Eddie Murphy wins Guest Actor easily.

    I agree that Eddie Murphy is very likely going to win, but I can picture him losing if a bunch of other SNL guys get nominated like last year, in which case they might be able to take away enough of his votes for Luke Kirby to win again. However, I’m not currently predicting that to happen, as I don’t currently see any of the other SNL guests having enough passion to steal votes from him. Larry David would probably come the closest, but since he couldn’t overcome vote himself a few years ago, I don’t think he’ll make too big a dent into Murphy’s votes.

    Teresa Chavez
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    #1203308765

    “What has happened is tragic. I am heartbroken for Kobe’s family.
    He was a sports hero. He was also a rapist.
    And all of these truths can exist simultaneously”

    Emmy award nominee Evan Rachel Wood about Kobe’s tragic death. She’s pretty much out now for the Emmys.

    Anonymous
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    #1203309052
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
    Heptapod
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    #1203309619

    “What has happened is tragic. I am heartbroken for Kobe’s family.
    He was a sports hero. He was also a rapist.
    And all of these truths can exist simultaneously”

    Emmy award nominee Evan Rachel Wood about Kobe’s tragic death. She’s pretty much out now for the Emmys.

    Honestly, I think everyone will have forgotten about this by the time Emmy voting rolls around. Not saying that she’s right or that I agree with her, but I don’t think this’ll really affect her chances whatsoever.

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